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Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow


stormtracker
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12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean, I pretty much said that..use the NAM for guidance and trends.  The problem with GFS vs Euro is perception.  In objective analysis, yes, the Euro scores better.  But people always go with "what have you done for me lately" (oooooooo yeah. sorry).   So, the GFS has kinda led the way on the most recent storms at longer range

Those hemisphere h5 scores aren’t always relevant to the one thing we care about, the track and amplitude of low pressure systems along the east coast.  The Uk for years killed those scores but I’d trust the icon over it at placing a mid latitude cyclone along the east coast at day 5. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Those hemisphere h5 scores aren’t always relevant to the one thing we care about, the track and amplitude of low pressure systems along the east coast.  The Uk for years killed those scores but I’d trust the icon over it at placing a mid latitude cyclone along the east coast at day 5. 

This is an interesting post. I was looking at the North America h5 maps on the gfs earlier and something really stood out. At that range (view) when you toggled back 4,5,6 runs you couldn’t tell any real difference. Made me realize that it comes down to very small features when you’re looking at the practical weather at any specific time. So I can see a scenario where a model may score well on a large scale evaluation but poorly on the small scale that actually determines the real weather you get.

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If these changes carry over to the 12z runs, then I'll be on board. I want to see it survive a few initializations. Everything was slower on this run, and not just the main players. Could be running into the same issues again tomorrow -- and that matters when it comes to the NS wave being able to amplify instead of getting impinged on by the upstream NS kicker.

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whoa! That's a site that puts the CMC out earlier?

I deleted it because I'm not sure my maps were right (yes, made the classic wrong date 00z mistake), but yes, you can get an early view at the CMC here: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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There was a time I salivated when central or southern VA was the target 3-5 days out. But over the last 5 years we’ve seen about a half dozen of these and not seen a flake from any of them. DC got into some on the northern fringe. But places like Winchester, Hagerstown, Frederick… have mostly misses every one. The north trend isn’t what it used to be.  
ETA: that’s not the same as the the west trend when there is no blocking which is still a real thing. 

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
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