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OBS-NOWCAST for potential significant 6 hour Thursday morning (1/20/22) commute impact general 1-3" snowfall.


wdrag
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11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the NAM did bail last evening on the 0z runs

It did finally bail, although even last night's 0z Nam did give central NJ close to 2 inches of snow. RGEM actually correctly picked up that areas to the north would get slightly more than areas to the south due to the colder temps. RGEM outperformed NAM big-time with this event.

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30 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

great rain and wind storm probably will be the highlight of the winter for nyc..

We had a 6-8 inch storm locally just a few weeks ago which is almost a third of NYC's annual snowfall average and is close to the January average. Some perspective is indeed for what a NYC winter should look like.

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This storm was definitely very dissaponting, less snow than snow squalls or the recent inland runner storm. The writing was sort of on the wall with this one once we could see how warm it was and how long the rain would hang on. However I don't really agree with the sentiment that every storm this winter has been a bust. 

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Just now, winterwarlock said:

this was a bust....the GFS horrible...why are the models so bad 24 hours out, and in my lifetime, I have never seen these systems crossing like this work out rarely maybe

Models were fine for this, it’s the weenie snowmaps that were horrid

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Will try and post 2 days snow totals (small) Friday evening.  No other comments from myself on anything future or currently threaded til either 830P this eve or sometime Friday. Holding 29F here in Wantage at 1241P. 

 

I just checked HPC HREF (12z/20 version) and it still is too high for today. Don't think most modeling grabbed the essence of 33F+during the day minimizing snow accumulations further than what it was doing.  

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2 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

We had a 6-8 inch storm locally just a few weeks ago which is almost a third of NYC's annual snowfall average and is close to the January average. Some perspective is indeed for what a NYC winter should look like.

NYC's average is 30 inches per season. You're maybe going a little to far in the other direction. But the warming winters do make it tough for the urban areas to keep a snowpack when they get it, and that to me is the more disturbing part.

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2 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Had a dusting in Lindenhurst only on the coldest parts of the grass and trees, all gone now. My expectations were low though since we rarely score on these frontal situations so I’m not exactly feeling any dissapointment

Agree I think this was a expect not much hope for the best scenario more than a bust. This type of situation usually doesn't produce much.

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9 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Was worried about a later changeover and less snow - definitely could bust low, although the NWS didn't change their advisories/maps...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
526 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
515 AM...We`ve made some adjustments to the forecast grids as
the colder air is taking a little longer to move in. Somewhat
diffuse cold front currently located over eastern PA and slowly
pushing south/east but most of the region still in the mid 30s
or warmer at this time with rain. Cold advection is underway
though in the boundary layer and still expect a change from rain
to snow from NW to SE over the next several hours as precip
continues to move north and along the front. The change over
from rain to snow should occur by around sunrise from Berks
County extending north and northeast through the Lehigh Valley
into northern NJ and by mid morning (8am-9am timeframe) across
the I-95 corridor. This is about one to three hours later than
previously forecast. Snow will continue for several hours
through the morning centered roughly near the I-95 corridor.
This will not be a big snowstorm and for the most part the rates
should be on the lighter side however there will be the
potential for periods of moderate snow to set up here right
around mid morning as the best forcing associated with the F-Gen
and upper jet dynamics moves through. The precip should then
come to an end NW to SE around the late morning / early
afternoon time frame as colder, drier air continues to advect in
on N/NW winds. It will last a bit longer though over southern
Delmarva and coastal New Jersey but these areas will also take a
bit longer to change from rain to snow. In terms of snowfall
accumulation, generally expect 1-2 inches within the area under
the Winter Weather Advisory. Over the southern Poconos and near
the coast amounts will be a bit lower...generally a coating up
to an inch. The warmest temps of the day will be in the early
morning as temps will fall behind the front. By early afternoon
most areas will be in the 20s to low 30s with temps falling
further through the 20s beyond this time. As N/NW winds increase
to 10-15 mph (with higher gusts) this will make it feel even
colder.

This AFD was when we knew we might be in trouble and it just got worse from there.  Didn't help that the 0Z models were showing anything from 0 to 5" of snow just hours before the event started - we don't usually see that bad of a spread that close to an event. I know there's more to forecasting than picking the right model or following a blend, but this had to be a tough one for the pros and I can see why one would've forecast 1-2" - and been wrong.  

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