Itstrainingtime Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: A low of 38 here and about .2" of liquid already as we begin our long-duration rain slog. Based on the totality of model guidance and knowing my microclimate (i.e. I sit very low and do very poorly in marginal icing events), I am predicting an absolute nothing burger here. Would be thrilled to see a trace of ice but doubt even that, and as always, I hope to be wrong. Just not our winter thus far down here in the land of Amish. Good luck to those who do get in on some action and especially the northern tier, where they should have one hell of a snowpack after all this. I approve and agree of the entirety of your message except for the bolded - I'm hoping against hope for a nothing burger. I have a lot of traveling to do tomorrow and not looking forward to that stress whatsoever. Let it rain itself out and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: your road cleaning is in process, but I'm not thinking much if any of this "soaks". Guess we can call it wasted water.. Very true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I approve and agree of the entirety of your message except for the bolded - I'm hoping against hope for a nothing burger. I have a lot of traveling to do tomorrow and not looking forward to that stress whatsoever. Let it rain itself out and be done with it. Haha fair enough. I'll change my stance and join you in that hope. Here's to the nothing burger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12z NAM very little ice for the LSV as expected in these situations always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, paweather said: 12z NAM very little ice for the LSV as expected in these situations always But let's crucify the NWS in State College for not hoisting EXTREME DEATH ICE alerts. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: But let's crucify the NWS in State College for not hoisting EXTREME DEATH ICE alerts. Lol I certainly didn't do that HAHA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: But let's crucify the NWS in State College for not hoisting EXTREME DEATH ICE alerts. Lol In this case, it was good they waited. Other times, however, their actions (or lack thereof) cause confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 This thing has potential still to be bad, few degrees either way and this much precip involved still could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: This thing has potential still to be bad, few degrees either way and this much precip involved still could get interesting. it could yes. Though i'm expecting nadda @candersontell the class what is happening at your parents place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, sauss06 said: @candersontell the class what is happening at your parents place? Gang bang? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Well, it seems as though the hi-res models are universally picking up on a sneaky but persistent warm layer around 800mb that keeps the bulk of the precip falling as sleet for even a large portion of the northern tier (talking deep into Tioga and Potter) for the majority of the event. A lot of lost qpf with this one but the ice threat is real for folks in the central to northern ridge and valley region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 40 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Gang bang? I can't help but notice a lack of immediate denial of this one. I'm thinking @canderson's folks are getting weird right at this moment. Maybe @FHS's nanny is there with them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Seeing the "ooze" of cold in the Southern Tier of NY. 29-30 in and around Ithaca but 38 in and around BGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Well look what I woke up to a little earlier. My prediction of a WWA came true. That was the only prediction I made. Nothing about precip types, etc. No one has posted some surface temp maps for overnight yet. Last night the 32 line was supposed to have just reached MDT at 1:00am tonight. As we now can see, almost all of the layers above us remain above 0 until the low is way off the coast. That would seem to me to mean that I doubt around here there is any sleet observed. Just ZR. At 10:30 I'm at 39.2 degrees with light rain, and have had 0.52" of rain for the storm / since midnight. I'll be sure to keep you updated as to the state of my snowpack (lol). It does appear to have decreased a little in thickness. However, it's still a solid 1.5" with a few more blades of grass poking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12z NAM shows my worst fear. Surface temps don't go below 32 until after I leave out in the truck, thus putting me on the roads just as everything is going over to ice. I am/was really hoping for a 1-3 am drop, so I could call off work. As long as it's just wet when I'm supposed to report, I'll have to go in as the boss won't see a legitimate reason for me to stay home. Go f'n figure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: But let's crucify the NWS in State College for not hoisting EXTREME DEATH ICE alerts. Lol Good thing some of us checked the HRRR and had a preview of what the other meso's may be heading toward. Whether any of them are right to be shown tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I can't help but notice a lack of immediate denial of this one. I'm thinking @canderson's folks are getting weird right at this moment. Maybe @FHS's nanny is there with them. where is FHS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The WWA was taken down for the LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: The WWA was taken down for the LSV Map shows a sps overlaid but advisory still posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 My advisory is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Map shows a sps overlaid but advisory still posted. Gotcha I just looked at the US map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, paweather said: Gotcha I just looked at the US map. All good. I plan on marking a trace of ice for the event. Not feeling this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The problem sometimes with the NWS CPT is sometimes they downplay stuff so they don’t put people in a panic. Then things change and then their behind trying to catch up. Also a lot of times their forecast and forecast discussion don’t really jive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, pawatch said: The problem sometimes with the NWS CPT is sometimes they downplay stuff so they don’t put people in a panic. Then things change and then their behind trying to catch up. Also a lot of times their forecast and forecast discussion don’t really jive. The average blue haired old bitty and hill person from Snyder county doesn't read the forecast discussion. They also don't visit weather forums. They get their weather from their local weather man or country music radio station, who gets their forecast information from the NWS office in State College. As a result, CTP has a responsibility to not send everyone running to Weis for French toast mix and toilet paper every time the Euro has a five inches of freezing rain extravaganza out in fantasy land. Their disco can be more inside baseball because only nerds like us read them. The rest of them could be installed within the Library of Congress and they still wouldn't be picked up because most people in the CTP CWA freeze and lose their minds at "Library." So that's probably why they're more conservative and less "sky is falling." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, pawatch said: The problem sometimes with the NWS CPT is sometimes they downplay stuff so they don’t put people in a panic. Then things change and then their behind trying to catch up. Also a lot of times their forecast and forecast discussion don’t really jive. I know some people are taking this like we are slandering them which isn’t true:..I just have witnessed too many late upgrades and let’s be honest WWAs don’t get much caution stirred up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: it could yes. Though i'm expecting nadda @candersontell the class what is happening at your parents place? Starting snowing there an hour ago. Should get 2-3” today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: The average blue haired old bitty and hill person from Snyder county doesn't read the forecast discussion. They also don't visit weather forums. They get their weather from their local weather man or country music radio station, who gets their forecast information from the NWS office in State College. As a result, CTP has a responsibility to not send everyone running to Weis for French toast mix and toilet paper every time the Euro has a five inches of freezing rain extravaganza out in fantasy land. Their disco can be more inside baseball because only nerds like us read them. The rest of them could be installed within the Library of Congress and they still wouldn't be picked up because most people in the CTP CWA freeze and lose their minds at "Library." So that's probably why they're more conservative and less "sky is falling." My wife has a master’s degree and I guarantee you she has no idea what a NWS forecast discussion is or where to find one. Probably also didn’t know prior to seeing me looking at weather models that there was a place where peons like you or I could see the GFS run every 6 hours, or even what the GFS is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I'll just add this - does anyone have any idea how many times CTP has hoisted Winter Storm Warnings, Advisories, etc. only for them to end up not verifying? Me either. But I'll tell you it has happened a lot. People complain about why no advisory, why no warning, why no this or that...they've issued a ton of warnings over the years that failed. Remember that piece, too. A couple of years ago CTP had a Winter Storm Warning for Harrisburg for 8-10" of snow the morning of the storm. I thought they were ludicrous, but everyone else in here was happy. That afternoon they dropped it to an advisory for 2-4". People started blasting them. Then the snow started and some here were demanding that the warning got reissued. It didn't. MDT finished with 2.9" of snow. Advisory verified. Warning fell far short. Point is - with some people, they were wrong either way. They do their best. Personally, I think the criticism is often unfair and unwarranted. Go ahead. Tell me how wrong I am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: I know some people are taking this like we are slandering them which isn’t true:..I just have witnessed too many late upgrades and let’s be honest WWAs don’t get much caution stirred up. Perhaps, but there's been plenty of slander in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, canderson said: Starting snowing there an hour ago. Should get 2-3” today. I guess that means no naked streaking in Harrisburg today. Sauss is off the hook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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