paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Looks like 6z stays the same on the GFS very consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 After studying the overnight runs, my thoughts can be summed up thusly: What a waste of beautiful copious QPF in what has been a nice cold pattern. Sad to see, but trek on we will. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Don’t tell that to @Bubbler86 ! Lol! According to this board, Winter starts December 1 and ends in April. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: According to this board, Winter starts December 1 and ends in April. Well we got at least 6 more weeks per the groundhog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: According to this board, Winter starts December 1 and ends after July 4th Fixed 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: Well we got at least 6 more weeks per the groundhog Plus any snow in June counts toward the seasonal total. LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 27 when I left the historic district at 6:30am. 33 when I got to Columbia at 6:40am. 22 at 6:45am south of Washington Boro. 29 on top of the hill here at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: 27 when I left the historic district at 6:30am. 33 when I got to Columbia at 6:40am. 22 at 6:45am south of Washington Boro. 29 on top of the hill here at work. The HRRR told me to wear short sleeves today so I am ready. 45-50 for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Plus any snow in June counts toward the seasonal total. LOL Can't wait for June snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Can't wait for June snow! I hear CCB will set up on a line from Tamaqua to Pillow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I hear CCB will set up on a line from Tamaqua to Pillow. That sounds about right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The HRRR told me to wear short sleeves today so I am ready. 45-50 for the LSV. Bring it. Will be a pleasant drive east this afternoon in comfortable clothes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Bring it. Will be a pleasant drive east this afternoon in comfortable clothes. The 12Z Hrrr has me in the mid to upper 50's Thursday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the current CTP forecast for Harrisburg. There is no “torch” before this system. Highs in the low 40’s means that temps will not need to fall much to get back below freezing when the front moves through. Weeks of frigid temperatures and snow cover in many areas near Harrisburg will not be eliminated by 2 days of temperatures in the low 40’s. The ground temperatures will freeze again quickly once the front moves in. Wednesday Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 42. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night A chance of rain and snow before midnight, then rain. Low around 34. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Rain. High near 44. South wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain before 4am, then rain and sleet. Low around 28. East wind around 7 mph becoming west in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Sleet, possibly mixed with rain, snow, and freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of snow. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 37 was my high for Tuesday. Thought it was to be around 40-42?? Ground truth, it really doesn't matter much. It's been plenty cold, and the diff for those who have the concrete base is not much. Even thought its early Feb, you're ALWAYS gonna have a bit of melt off. It's normal and should be expected and not "part of a new normal" IMO. Unless someone has data to the contrary....the reality is that for those that have a concrete base, many areas are 1-3" thick which is highly susceptible to some meltoff. Go up north where the concrete/snowpack is legit. ONLY meltoff is places that have been plowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 37 was my high for Tuesday. Thought it was to be around 40-42?? Ground truth, it really doesn't matter much. It's been plenty cold, and the diff for those who have the concrete base is not much. Even thought its early Feb, you're ALWAYS gonna have a bit of melt off. It's normal and should be expected and not "part of a new normal" IMO. Unless someone has data to the contrary....the reality is that for those that have a concrete base, many areas are 1-3" thick which is highly susceptible to some meltoff. Go up north where the concrete/snowpack is legit. ONLY meltoff is places that have been plowed. You were a little cooler yesterday for sure - my station reached 40.6 for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: You were a little cooler yesterday for sure - my station reached 40.6 for the high. Your always hot pal.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 It looks like back to cold and dry after this system we cannot seem to match up cold and wet this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, paweather said: It looks like back to cold and dry after this system we cannot seem to match up cold and wet this year. Early next week looks seasonal to perhaps a bit below. From midweek on much of the northern half of the U.S. is normal to above normal with colder weather shunted south: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Early next week looks seasonal to perhaps a bit below. From midweek on much of the northern half of the U.S. is normal to above normal with colder weather shunted south: Thanks transient cold for now. And just like being in a Cold pattern we were in and it is going to rain we can be in a warm pattern, and it can snow. I know you know this. Interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 44 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 27 when I left the historic district at 6:30am. 33 when I got to Columbia at 6:40am. 22 at 6:45am south of Washington Boro. 29 on top of the hill here at work. Sounds like you went from elevated to UHI to low-lying to more elevated. Pays to be low on those inversion nights, like me, who hit 20 last night tehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: The WHY matters. I have learned so much about the WHY. I take the time to read and learn. At the end of the day, I can look at dozens and dozens of pretty maps BUT I want to know if it's even possible what the model posted suggests. That's where the WHY comes in to play. I'm not lookin for more heartache, I want to know what's likely going to happen. Absolutely. It's why when I post, i often give my "why" statement....to validate my reasoning right or wrong. Hell, that DT post that tango just put up at least has DT suggesting WHY he thinks the cold will be a challenge. Right or wrong, at least he gives reasoning. Some people need to be reminded that you don't have to "like" what someone says, to respect what they put out, as long as they explain the WHY. Wow...I don't care for DT, but still defended him.....see?? This is one tricky ass deal coming up, and some will have smiles and others heartbreak... I know that Lanco typically sits on the heartbreak side, and doesn't do well wrt these type of deals, but think many in here have quite an event possible w/ a plethora of frozen to contend with. Today/tonight we start to draw the lines (and hope they dont look like some of last nights . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, paweather said: It looks like back to cold and dry after this system we cannot seem to match up cold and wet this year. One benefit, is that for those who have been on the snowy side of what has fallen, it has been retained (and hopefully enjoyed). You and I have lost basically 4 weeks of cold to brown ground....that is a kick square in the kahunas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The NAM still not catching on to the GFS idea and it could be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You were a little cooler yesterday for sure - my station reached 40.6 for the high. So did MDT and Cap City. You were right in the meat of what most others had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Sounds like you went from elevated to UHI to low-lying to more elevated. Pays to be low on those inversion nights, like me, who hit 20 last night tehe. I posted that info with you in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: So did MDT and Cap City. You were right in the meat of what most others had. I didn't look but from what I remember you posting, areas west of the river in general got a little warmer than areas farther east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I didn't look but from what I remember you posting, areas west of the river in general got a little warmer than areas farther east? Yea, it was a hodge podge. Pretty much everyone was 4-6 higher than their Nam forecast. Lots of 39-42 types temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I posted that info with you in mind. Haha I heard my call and I came a'runnin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Typical winter weather Nut I believe you need to move up to the cabin for your winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, pawatch said: Typical winter weather Nut I believe you need to move up to the cabin for your winters. Nah....just a great place to visit/vacation. I never expect anything close to what they get, but make it a priority to go up often enough to get my snow fix (when I dont have it down here). While this pattern sure is tricky, knowing your climo and how things role in ones hood should make it easier for one to set expectations when looking at maps. That keeps me in check and rarely out of house money when placing bets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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