Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, paweather said: It can be different Exactly, tons of time for a shift of 50 miles. I am hoping for a couple of inches of snow to top off my ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 31 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Kyle Elliott downplaying both Friday and Sunday for the LSV here: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php It only takes a little bit of ice to cause major problems on the roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It only takes a little bit of ice to cause major problems on the roadways. I agree Kyle Elliot isn’t the be all do alll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It only takes a little bit of ice to cause major problems on the roadways. 4 minutes ago, paweather said: I agree Kyle Elliot isn’t the be all do alll. I think that's what he's saying... No one said he's the be all to all. He's a good met. He posted a good discussion. If you don't like it you certainly don't have to read it. I thought on a weather forum that a weather discussion was relevant to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 My parents in Texas are in a winter storm watch. This is their forecast - they’ll get more winter weather than the LSV. In Dallas! Wednesday Night Rain before 9pm, then rain, freezing rain, and sleet between 9pm and 3am, then freezing rain and sleet after 3am. Low around 23. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Thursday Snow and sleet likely, becoming all snow after 9am. Cloudy and cold, with a temperature falling to around 23 by 9am. Wind chill values between 8 and 17. North wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Thursday Night A chance of flurries before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I think that's what he's saying... No one said he's the be all to all. He's a good met. He posted a good discussion. If you don't like it you certainly don't have to read it. I thought on a weather forum that a weather discussion was relevant to post. No worries I agree I reacted differently and believe differently this could be some serious ice issues and models are show that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I agree Kyle Elliot isn’t the be all do alll.You have to remember most of his audience doesn’t like ice and snow. He’s not obligated to sooth weenie souls by letting them down easy. He’s just trying to make a reliable forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, anotherman said: You have to remember most of his audience doesn’t like ice and snow. He’s not obligated to sooth weenie souls by letting them down easy. He’s just trying to make a reliable forecast. And he also believes in meteorology and not modelogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 And he also believes in meteorology and not modelogy. Right, and he’s following in the footsteps of the ultimate anti-hype guy: Horst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Right, and he’s following in the footsteps of the ultimate anti-hype guy: Horst. You guys can believe what you want but don’t bitch at CTP because they didn’t give enough warning regarding ice. Better safe than sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, canderson said: My parents in Texas are in a winter storm watch. This is their forecast - they’ll get more winter weather than the LSV. In Dallas! Wednesday Night Rain before 9pm, then rain, freezing rain, and sleet between 9pm and 3am, then freezing rain and sleet after 3am. Low around 23. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Thursday Snow and sleet likely, becoming all snow after 9am. Cloudy and cold, with a temperature falling to around 23 by 9am. Wind chill values between 8 and 17. North wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Thursday Night A chance of flurries before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. This sounds exactly like the current forecast for Harrisburg… And for the record, I can’t stand Dallas! Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I think that's what he's saying... No one said he's the be all to all. He's a good met. He posted a good discussion. If you don't like it you certainly don't have to read it. I thought on a weather forum that a weather discussion was relevant to post. I liked Kyle’s post and said nothing to the contrary… I’m not sure why my response was lumped in with the @paweather response to your post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 27 minutes ago, anotherman said: You have to remember most of his audience doesn’t like ice and snow. He’s not obligated to sooth weenie souls by letting them down easy. He’s just trying to make a reliable forecast. His audience is also mostly Lancaster, so we all need to keep that in mind as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 43 minutes ago, paweather said: I agree Kyle Elliot isn’t the be all do alll. He is a good Met and he gave a good well written post. This forecast is complicated, so let’s see what the next couple of days bring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: He is a good Met and he gave a good well written post. This forecast is complicated, so let’s see what the next couple of days bring. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Here is the current CTP forecast for Harrisburg. There is no “torch” before this system. Highs in the low 40’s means that temps will not need to fall much to get back below freezing when the front moves through. Weeks of frigid temperatures and snow cover in many areas near Harrisburg will not be eliminated by 2 days of temperatures in the low 40’s. The ground temperatures will freeze again quickly once the front moves in. Wednesday Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 42. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night A chance of rain and snow before midnight, then rain. Low around 34. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Rain. High near 44. South wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain before 4am, then rain and sleet. Low around 28. East wind around 7 mph becoming west in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Sleet, possibly mixed with rain, snow, and freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of snow. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, paweather said: You guys can believe what you want but don’t bitch at CTP because they didn’t give enough warning regarding ice. Better safe than sorry. I don't criticize mets. I have defended CTP here repeatedly. Not sure why this was said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Well after looking at 0Z, focusing imby a little bit...the picture has improved for more frozen and less freezing. Freezing rain now projected to be 0.58" vs 1.11 at 18z. Ice accrual instead of 0.63" it's down now to 0.38"...so less freezing rain overall this run. Total qpf now is 2.20" versus 2.12" at 18z. So total qpf stays virtually the same between those two runs. Finally, my 18z snow total was 3", but 0Z improves upon that up to 5". I don't know about any sleet amounts but I'm sure there is some sleet in the transition. Finally, Friday night looking frigid still with widespread single digit lows, including negative lows out west and north. Similar lows again Saturday night, maybe a few degrees warmer. For now I'm quite satisfied. Things are still in flux. Personally, I would focus on the overall strength of the high to our north in southern Canada. It's been showing pressures in the 1040's during the arrival of the arctic air. Watch to see tomorrow if that high gets any stronger, like up to 1045 or higher. 1045 is a pretty strong High pressure at about 30.85". You usually don't mess with Highs of that magnitude as they typically mean business. And a 1045 high pressing down on a measly 1007 Low isn't going to let that warmth come flooding into our area that easily. We'll revisit all of this in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I’ve seen a couple snarky comments on the last couple postings that CTP has put out regarding the upcoming event. A couple comments pertaining to why not put up ice watches, etc etc. I think the CTP criticism that takes the cake that I’ve seen today is our local met going after them about the meaning of Groundhog Day.. @Atomixwxshould get a kick out of that lol. At any rate, CTP has only issued watches in the northern tier counties to this point because that’s likely that only part of the region where warning criteria snow/ice (mainly snow) is a near certainty as it pertains to the whole guidance suite. The rest of the region is a crapshoot at the moment. With the heavy snowfall swath mainly NW, the big issue is how much of every other p-type falls before any potential change to snow NW to SE towards the end. A warmer or colder scenario could both preclude warning criteria icing in the central/upper Sus Valley counties. They also still have time to observe a couple more runs of models as this primary wave of this two pronged system is slated for Thursday. I expect watches to be expanded some overnight as things are starting to zero a little bit on an icing swath that has a good chance of meeting criteria. These type of p-type issues are going to be best resolved with short/near term high res guidance that is just starting to get all the way in range of this. The other thing to consider is the longevity of the primary wave. The 0z 12k NAM for example does get a changover to snow all the way into the Sus Valley but runs out of precip, while the 3k NAM which only goes out to 60 looked like it had a longer lasting event. Just a lot of variables to this. We go through these wave or waves running a pressing frontal boundary type events at least once a winter. They always suck trying to nail them down. I’d almost rather watch another blizzard go up I-95…. Almost. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: I’ve seen a couple snarky comments on the last couple postings that CTP has put out regarding the upcoming event. A couple comments pertaining to why not put up ice watches, etc etc. I think the CTP criticism that takes the cake that I’ve seen today is our local met going after them about the meaning of Groundhog Day.. @Atomixwxshould get a kick out of that lol. At any rate, CTP has only issued watches in the northern tier counties to this point because that’s likely that only part of the region where warning criteria snow/ice (mainly snow) is a near certainty as it pertains to the whole guidance suite. The rest of the region is a crapshoot at the moment. With the heavy snowfall swath mainly NW, the big issue is how much of every other p-type falls before any potential change to snow NW to SE towards the end. A warmer or colder scenario could both preclude warning criteria icing in the central/upper Sus Valley counties. They also still have time to observe a couple more runs of models as this primary wave of this two pronged system is slated for Thursday. I expect watches to be expanded some overnight as things are starting to zero a little bit on an icing swath that has a good chance of meeting criteria. These type of p-type issues are going to be best resolved with short/near term high res guidance that is just starting to get all the way in range of this. The other thing to consider is the longevity of the primary wave. The 0z 12k NAM for example does get a changover to snow all the way into the Sus Valley but runs out of precip, while the 3k NAM which only goes out to 60 looked like it had a longer lasting event. Just a lot of variables to this. We go through these wave or waves running a pressing frontal boundary type events at least once a winter. They always suck trying to nail them down. I’d almost rather watch another blizzard go up I-95…. Almost. Lol it feels bizarre nobody really ever gives ice storms their due. Is it going to be too warm even up this way for decent ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Awe look at Joe Murgo defending his live spot from Punxsy. I wish you LSV folks could see him. He glows on set like he just emerged from the waters just outside the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor with his white like toothpaste hair and bronze skin, he's literally how everybody would look if we lived in 1985-A from Back To The Future, Part II. If I could rejuvenate Tom Casey the way they rejuvenated Joe Murgo, I'd rejuvenate Casey and suplex Murgo off a cruise ship. The only problem is, I think they gave that cruise ship gig to Christy Shields so I don't even have that going for me, which is the opposite of nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Also, in the event any meteorologists at WTAJ in Toontown lurk here, I don't care. My commentary towards you lot isn't about the weather. Dude glows on television and can be seen from space. Blind people can see him and from Altoona, barges on Lake Erie use him as a beacon to make sure they're steaming in the correct direction towards ****ing Cleveland. Who let him take a month off and spend it in a tanning booth for the eyeballs of Appalachia? "Mildred Hohman in Centre Hall writes in, 'Dear @JoeMurgoWTAJ, we need you to look less like you're from the area. How close to black guy can you become? and my answer to that, Mildred in Centre Hall is, the Greek God as written in the Simpsons." And that's the weather here in We Are Central PA. Now it's time to see how Bishop Guilfoyle, a private school with seventeen recruited students is able to steamroll the tiny rural schools in this area in all sports. This week's victim? Glendale. [/rant] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Thoughts from DT: The operational GFS model for the past few days has been trying to drive the cold front rapidly through New England, into the northern half of the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday, and into New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, northern Virginia, West Virginia, on Friday. The result would be rain changing to heavy snow and ice in much of Pennsylvania, New York State, and New England (which seems like a good probability). Undoubtedly, even coastal New England is going to see significant ice as well as New York City, New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania Thursday night into Friday morning. And because the GFS model is so aggressive with the cold air it actually allows the rain change to sleet and freezing rain in most of Maryland. the Eastern portions of West Virginia and the northern half of Virginia during the day on Friday February 4. If that were to happen then they would be a tremendous ice storm in Southern New England most of Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, NYC, and Southeast New York. the ice would change to snow and there would be significant ice buildup and snow accumulations on top of the ice in the northern half of New England most of New York State and Northwest Pennsylvania would see all snow. Indeed, this is exactly what the operational GFS model has been showing for the past few days. But there is a problem with this particular kind of scenario. It has to do with the development of waves of LOW pressure tracking along the front in a SW to NE direction — from Arkansas to Tennessee to Virginia to the Delmarva on Thursday and Friday. As a general rule, when LOW pressure tracking along of front in SW to NE direction, it is hard to get the cold air that is located Northeast of the surface LOW pressure to advance the Southward. You have to wait until the LOW pressure area is clear as the region. Only then will the cold front sweeps in, temperatures will drop and the precipitation comes to an end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I think that's what he's saying... No one said he's the be all to all. He's a good met. He posted a good discussion. If you don't like it you certainly don't have to read it. I thought on a weather forum that a weather discussion was relevant to post. This. I must have missed a lot last night but it looks like there's some squabble about this met and that met. Folks, people have differing opinions and manners in which they desimanate information. If you don't like their opinion or don't like how they may or may not treat you with kid gloves, then change the channel or station. It's really that simple. The two above posts are basically me dragging an Altoona weatherman over a field of hot coals and razor blades and salt, but precisely none of it is based on how he delivers the weather on television. In all honesty, I think he's a very good "weather man," but he has the unfortunate job of following a regional icon and probably the man that as a child, I grew up wanting to become. That's it. Im not butthurt because a weather guy let me down hard about the harsh reality of rain. I just don't understand he glows. Point I'm trying to make is: if Kyle Elliott isn't your favorite weather personality online, that's okay. It's probably me, anyway, but I know nothing compared to these people and don't pretend to. But if Kyle ain't your style (achievement unlocked: poetry in rantism) then find someone who is. Just as long as it's not that criminal from S&S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: This. I must have missed a lot last night but it looks like there's some squabble about this met and that met. Folks, people have differing opinions and manners in which they desimanate information. If you don't like their opinion or don't like how they may or may not treat you with kid gloves, then change the channel or station. It's really that simple. The two above posts are basically me dragging an Altoona weatherman over a field of hot coals and razor blades and salt, but precisely none of it is based on how he delivers the weather on television. In all honesty, I think he's a very good "weather man," but he has the unfortunate job of following a regional icon and probably the man that as a child, I grew up wanting to become. That's it. Im not butthurt because a weather guy let me down hard about the harsh reality of rain. I just don't understand he glows. Point I'm trying to make is: if Kyle Elliott isn't your favorite weather personality online, that's okay. It's probably me, anyway, but I know nothing compared to these people and don't pretend to. But if Kyle ain't your style (achievement unlocked: poetry in rantism) then find someone who is. Just as long as it's not that criminal from S&S. Thanks for sharing. Very well stated. For the record, I wasn't "squabbling" with anyone. I posted a detailed, lengthy discussion by a met who is local to my area. I don't go on and on about him, when he updates his discussions (1-2 times/week) I post them. Last night, I "introduced" his discussion by simply saying that he isn't enthused. He's not. If people actually read his discussion, they would have seen that he's much more enthused on wintry weather in the I81/78 corridor and N&W from there. Someone made a comment that it might be a lot worse where they live and not in Lancaster - that's exactly what the man said! After all, he IS Lancaster-specific. At any rate, despite his bias for this area, he posts what I think are fantastic discussions. He goes into great detail on WHY something will or won't happen. I remember last week when Blizz asked MAG his thoughts on an upcoming storm chance, and MAG's response was essentially "well I think that Kyle Elliott summed it up very well". And that is why I post his thoughts. MAG does the same thing - he'll go into the WHY. The WHY matters. I have learned so much about the WHY. I take the time to read and learn. Not saying others don't do that, but there are times when maps are posted and I think to myself "I really hope such and such doesn't actually think that'll play out". Because the WHY doesn't support the map. At the end of the day, I can look at dozens and dozens of pretty maps BUT I want to know if it's even possible what the model posted suggests. That's where the WHY comes in to play. I'm not lookin for more heartache, I want to know what's likely going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 If Punxsutawney Phil shits on the podium, it's 12 more months of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Shadow seen by virtue of a million camera flashes. It'll be winter until March 21, folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Its always winter until March 21. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Its always winter until March 21. Lol Don’t tell that to @Bubbler86 ! Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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