Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Here is the 0z GFS precip type broken down into snow, sleet & freezing rain by the end of Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Here is another look at the 0z GFS for this Sunday night. It has Warning level snow to mix for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Here is snow for Sunday’s event only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Here is the 2 event Combined total on the 0z GFS through next Monday am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Definitely variable temps this morning around here. KAOO at 16ºF but most obs in and around town are in the single digits and it’s 7.5ºF here currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The 6z GFS held serve for Thursday night into Friday with the switch to freezing rain, sleet & snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Here’s the morning take from CTP. Haven’t seen any real breakthroughs with overnight or 6z guidance. Still in the same camps with the GFS op most generous with frozen. Euro/Euro EPS/Canadian seem fairly close having the snow swath further northwest. GEFS sort of in the middle (6z did step back some snow means in the central vs 0z) but still showing a more robust transition. They all show transition for most/all with varying amounts of ice/wintry mix. I still tend to think the GFS has the right idea progressing the front and cold air, which the Euro had that idea a couple days ago. That may not ultimately be enough to get good snows into the Central/Sus Valley, but it would ramp up the mix/icing potential. GFS and also the NAM (which doesn’t cover the whole event yet) have pretty mean looking swaths of sleet accumulations while the Euro has very thin sleet zone but a good bit of freezing rain. Tons of stuff to consider here in addition to where these swaths might end up. Also to keep an eye on, short range stuff like the NAM are starting to pick up on ZR to kick the event off Wed night in central/eastern PA. Given how cold it has been, I’d bet on that scenario especially in areas with snowpack. Some spots could actually have a ZR/Rain/more ZR/mix/snow type of itinerary with this event. Quote .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong divergence along the right-entrance region of a powerful upper jet (~170kts centered over the northern Great Lakes) will combine with low-to-mid level frontogenesis and increasing moisture/anomalous PWs to support a prolonged period of mixed precip spreading west to east across CPA during this period. While POPs are easily 100%, it`s the particular details that will matter the most and will ultimately determine storm total snow and ice amounts. Given the detail uncertainty at this range, we followed NBM ptype probs closely and utilized blend of WPC/NBM SLRs to derive snow and ice amounts. The result signaled potential for heavy mixed wintry precip across the northern tier with rain to ice/snow transition likely farther to the southeast as the front traverses the CWA. Max snow 6" or more is fcst in Warren and McKean Counties trending to <1" to the I-81 corridor. Zone of max icing potential appears to be between PA/NY border and I-99/I-80 corridor with swath of fzra accums 0.01-0.25". How much sleet occurs within pytpe transition will certainly impact the snow/fzra accums. Prob snow/ice graphics and WPC WSO product supports issuance of winter storm watch in Warren and McKean Counties at this time, with additional winter headlines likely to be issued in the next 24 to 36 hours. Winter wx impacts should commence in the northern tier late Wednesday night and shift to the south through Thursday night/AM Friday. Mean QPF amounts are in the 1-1.5" range with the longest duration of plain rain in the lower Susquehanna Valley. With the moderate to heavy QPF and warming trend peaking on Thursday with maxT +5-10F above normal across south central PA, there is the possibility for some localized ice jams that could lead to minor flooding. Something else to be aware of for this upcoming, longer-duration multi-precipitation type winter wx event. Temps fall from north to south Thursday afternoon through Friday with some freeze up issues possible. There could be a period of wintry mix in the lower Susq Valley as precip comes to an end/shifts to the east early Friday. Locations impacted by snow and ice will have temperatures remain below freezing through the weekend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The 6z GFS storm still has the Sunday storm chance as well. This run still has snow to mix for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Here is the combined 2 event snow by Monday morning on the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Watching the weather on tv and read NWS forecast lows for last night said it wouldn't nearly as cold last night as Sunday night. It is 6 right now and yesterday morn it was 4 so 2 degrees is not nearly as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Why does this upcoming event remind me of the V-day storm of 2007 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Why does this upcoming event remind me of the V-day storm of 2007 ? I had the same thought. My car got embedded in six inches of sleet in Palmyra that year and my landlord sent his moron sons (who were all here on questionable legality) to unearth the car using 2x4s and my rear tire sent the 2x4 directly into this idiots ankle. I think we all learned something that day. They learned that when it comes to dislodging Dodge Stratus from ice, 2x4s are as useful as tits on a nun, and I learned that there's probably some kind of airplane that sits at the hospital when undocumented folks break their feet. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Why does this upcoming event remind me of the V-day storm of 2007 ? Is that when I-78 was shutdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 28 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Is that when I-78 was shutdown? yes sir. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the combined 2 event snow by Monday morning on the 6z GFS. Interesting to watch unfold. Not enthused for my area at all. GFS took a couple of steps back at 0z and 6z for the southern tier. North and west of Harrisburg there's more to like. My post is specific to snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Interesting to watch unfold. Not enthused for my area at all. GFS took a couple of steps back at 0z and 6z for the southern tier. North and west of Harrisburg there's more to like. My post is specific to snowfall. Would like to see some other models trend toward a more snowy look as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: I had the same thought. My car got embedded in six inches of sleet in Palmyra that year and my landlord sent his moron sons (who were all here on questionable legality) to unearth the car using 2x4s and my rear tire sent the 2x4 directly into this idiots ankle. I think we all learned something that day. They learned that when it comes to dislodging Dodge Stratus from ice, 2x4s are as useful as tits on a nun, and I learned that there's probably some kind of airplane that sits at the hospital when undocumented folks break their feet. You were never in Palmyra! HAHA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Low this morning was 11.7 degrees which was a bit of a surprise. I am certain the continuing snowpack enhanced the chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 24 minutes ago, paweather said: You were never in Palmyra! HAHA! I used to live above Cain Patch pet store right on the square. I had a ringside seat for all the 2:00 AM bum fights that went down outside Gary's. Best two years of my life lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I used to live above Cain Patch pet store right on the square. I had a ringside seat for all the 2:00 AM bum fights that went down outside Gary's. Best two years of my life lol Good ole Gary's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I dropped to 12 last night. Harrisburg finished January with a mean temp departure of -2.7 (Williamsport was -4.4). Precip was a smidge below normal and snowfall was about a half inch ahead for the month but lags by 3.9 inches for the season. I don't think those of us on the southern tier will be seeing any meaningful snowfall from the upcoming event. GFS has liked the follow-up wave on Sunday but doesn't have much support, if any, and I saw WPC wants no part of it. Onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 hours ago, sauss06 said: Why does this upcoming event remind me of the V-day storm of 2007 ? I still remember that storm pretty vividly. I think school was closed for a few days for me lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I dropped to 12 last night. Harrisburg finished January with a mean temp departure of -2.7 (Williamsport was -4.4). Precip was a smidge below normal and snowfall was about a half inch ahead for the month but lags by 3.9 inches for the season. I don't think those of us on the southern tier will be seeing any meaningful snowfall from the upcoming event. GFS has liked the follow-up wave on Sunday but doesn't have much support, if any, and I saw WPC wants no part of it. Onward. Sadly I agree. South of the turnpike might get icy, but remain fairly brown for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sadly I agree. South of the turnpike might get icy, but remain fairly brown for the foreseeable future. And the little snow left is going to get hammered today with the near 40 for the south. Has been nice (like last year) to have at least a couple weeks with snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I’m rooting for plain rain. This storm looks like a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sadly I agree. South of the turnpike might get icy, but remain fairly brown. The NAM (at range) looks very similar to the GFS. I know we all lean on climo but I have a feeling this one will be colder than any of us realize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And the little snow left is going to get hammered today with the near 40 for the south. Has been nice (like last year) to have at least a couple weeks with snow on the ground. My "little snow" are a few small piles in shady areas. I lost actual snow cover some time ago. But there's been something white on the ground for weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: The NAM (at range) looks very similar to the GFS. I know we all lean on climo but I have a feeling this one will be colder than any of us realize. Oh, and I tried to be specific earlier this morning about this - in NO way am I downplaying a significant winter weather event. I am less enthused about actual snow. I could see real issues with ice, however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Oh, and I tried to be specific earlier this morning about this - in NO way am I downplaying a significant winter weather event. I am less enthused about actual snow. I could see real issues with ice, however. I agree, with the first storm. The second storm could give us snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 12Z Nam still showing a little frz tomorrow night but not as impressive as 0Z. 2M's temps in the LSV are 30 and above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now