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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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53 minutes ago, canderson said:

This will be essentially a nonevent for MDT and southeast CTP says. Lancaster gets no frozen precip. 
 

A7AFE23D-08A7-4143-9280-0B16F118AA1C.jpeg.aef8bbaeaffee912121cdcda418c6185.jpeg

Yeah I don't see that happening no way this is non-event with the amount of precipitation coming up and we're supposed to be below 32° essentially for half the event the first round is going to be rain we know that. But the second event it's going to be at least moderate precipitation with temperatures lower than 32° and I'm shown to be under 32° by 7:00 p.m. tomorrow night that's on at least three models

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22 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Per the HRRR, which I don't know how reliable it is at this range yet, I would be at 33 with plain rain at 6am when I roll out with the truck. At that time, I probably wouldn't be able to call the boss man and say the roads are bad and it's icy...because they probably won't be, so I'll have to roll, then get into the icy goods about an hour later. At this point, I hope the cold press is faster, and we go to ice about 3am, so that when I wake up, everything here is a skating rink, and I have a legitimate reason to stay home.

HRRR is reliable approximately from 6 hours out.

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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha well I’m not quite buying that but yeah, not great. 

Yea, have to see similar depictions from other meso's.   Nam has you in the 50's after midnight but faster press of the cold air.  Rgem is closer to Hrrr with mid 50's well into Friday am pre rushhour. 

 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS Ice

 

 

Screenshot_20220202-231106.png

Just remember what I said back around 7:00pm...I said that I cannot see how CTP doesn't issue at least WWA's for the majority of us.  Is 0.25"+ criteria for Winter Storm Warning?  I keep forgetting if it's 0.25" or 0.50" threshold.  I'm pretty sure it's a quarter inch as that alone would be a ton of ice on everything.  I'm not rooting for this outcome, mind you.  At the same time there is definitely a hidden level of excitement over what might happen.  We're not going to find out until we're in the middle of it.  Again, I am predicting Winter Weather Advisories for nearly all of the LSV most likely in tomorrow morning's forecast issuance.  They have to provide 24 hours advance notice for this kind of event.  And, as I finish typing this at 12:17am I just looked at my weather station and it says that it has just started to rain here.  Temp 37.4 degrees.  I guess that last time we had any rain, it was freezing rain at the end of the Sunday 1/16 snow>sleet>freezing rain>rain.  Ok, another tick on the gauge with 0.02" of precip so far.  See you all in the morning!

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Well there’s a WWA both north and south but zippo here.  I know it won’t change what actually will happen but you’d giving folks a heads up on upcoming hazardous weather would be prudent.  Isn’t that one of the NWS primary functions?  
Maybe we can start a petition down this way to secede from CTP and join Mount Holly.  At least they have their shit together.  (Aside - can you imagine going door to door with such a petition?  I’d venture 99% of folks would have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, lol.)

Edit: WWA issued!  All is well in the world once again.  

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48 minutes ago, Festus said:

Well there’s a WWA both north and south but zippo here.  I know it won’t change what actually will happen but you’d giving folks a heads up on upcoming hazardous weather would be prudent.  Isn’t that one of the NWS primary functions?  
Maybe we can start a petition down this way to secede from CTP and join Mount Holly.  At least they have their shit together.  (Aside - can you imagine going door to door with such a petition?  I’d venture 99% of folks would have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, lol.)

Edit: WWA issued!  All is well in the world once again.  

its typical our weather services suck esp with ice events 

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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
402 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-040000-
/O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0009.220204T0600Z-220204T1800Z/
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg,
Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
402 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet accumulations
  of less than 1 inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths
  of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Friday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to a wintry mix late
  tonight and continue through Friday morning.

 

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12 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Has there ever been an Ice Storm Warning that didn’t start out with them downplaying it as nuisance ice event? Every time we go ice storm warning it’s 2/3 through event.

I actually think its one of the harder parts to forecast, as ground temps play into that part of the forecast and that's not really "weather".  I'd think it better to play it safe, but we all know you'd hear b!tchin either way....I sorta feel for them in icing events.  

its 33 and plain ol rain here...what a bust   

vs.   

its 32 here and a skating rink....why weren't we warned....  

boy I wish i was headed to the cabin tonight.  They ARE gonna get a shellackin.  My son is headed up w/ friends tomorrow mornin.  Told him to take losta pics.  Good chance at 20+ OTG after this event.

 

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23 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

My high temp is supposed to be 40 today. A few days ago it was supposed to be 46. So a definite downward trend in temps. Currently 34. I wonder if we will be headed to ice sooner then the NWS says we will.

 

with slp below pit, your thermals are going to erode a bit w/ SW wind, and if you look at mesos, the SW component never really turns NW. 

wrf-arw2_T700_neus_27.png

 

as storm is pulling out, you can see they've yet to shift ever after SLP has passed by to our E.  Thats whats working against us.

wrf-arw2_T700_neus_37.png

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Rain and 39, .21" recorded so far. Sucks to be on this side of the boundary, but if it's going to rain. Let it rip. It's been a LONG time since we've had a soaker and I'm ready for the roads to get bathed. 

your road cleaning is in process, but I'm not thinking much if any of this "soaks".  Guess we can call it wasted water..

 

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A low of 38 here and about .2" of liquid already as we begin our long-duration rain slog.  Based on the totality of model guidance and knowing my microclimate (i.e. I sit very low and do very poorly in marginal icing events), I am predicting an absolute nothing burger here.  Would be thrilled to see a trace of ice but doubt even that, and as always, I hope to be wrong.  Just not our winter thus far down here in the land of Amish.  Good luck to those who do get in on some action and especially the northern tier, where they should have one hell of a snowpack after all this.

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