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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Just my thoughts, I’m not hating on the NWS by any means. Moral of the story is this type of event is very difficult and frustrating to forecast. 

That's a point I wanted to make in my post and forgot. There's nothing simple about this forecast - it's not like it's a snow situation where the only thing to figure out is the amount of QPF and timing. This is extremely complex. Given that, perhaps they could have communicated a little more a little quicker. (which in fairness seems to be the gripe of some on here)

I don't like it when people outside my area of expertise tell me how I should do my job. I in turn will not be critical of others. Just doesn't sit well with me. 

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We’ll I figured it would happen sooner or later.  The great snow destroyer has been unleashed and just like that, more blades of grass are poking their way out as the culprit, F O G, increases it’s mighty melting power upon my poor snowpack, which now appears to be little more than one inch.  Temp holding at 41.0 degrees and total rainfall so far has increased to 0.63”.

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9 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

We’ll I figured it would happen sooner or later.  The great snow destroyer has been unleashed and just like that, more blades of grass are poking their way out as the culprit, F O G, increases it’s mighty melting power upon my poor snowpack, which now appears to be little more than one inch.  Temp holding at 41.0 degrees and total rainfall so far has increased to 0.63”.

Get ready to cut your grass! :D

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245 PM Update:
Cold front has slowed to a crawl across the CWA, and currently
runs from somewhere between Elmira and Towanda PA, and more or
less along or just north of the Susquehanna through Broome
County, and up the Unadilla River before curving up into the
Adirondacks. Freezing temperatures are lurking just behind the
front. Despite hovering right around 32 degrees at BGM, we`ve
yet to change over to snow or even a mix. Snow seems to be
struggling to stick to the ground around Elmira and Ithaca.

By 6 PM, we should start to see the cold air drop southeast a
little faster, with the overlying warm nose finally taking shape
behind the front, with mixed precipitation in a strip across
most of Bradford PA and Broome Counties, and on up across the
upper Susquehanna. The freezing temperatures, with overlying
warm nose, will spread into the Wyoming Valley, Poconos, and
Catskills (especially Sullivan County NY) after 11 PM or
Midnight, with light snow taking over in the Wyoming Valley
around dawn.

Over NE PA and into the Catskills, including the Wyoming Valley,
rain will slowly change over to a mix of sleet and freezing
rain, with some snow mixed in, later tonight, from north to
south. Soundings suggest the cold air depth will be sufficient
for refreezing to sleet much of the time, though this may vary
on elevation, with potentially more glazing in the higher
elevations than in the valleys once the cold air finally gets
in. Freezing rain totals have been incremented up slightly, with
areas of 0.25 to 0.45 inches of flat ice possible in the higher
terrain areas of the Catskills, Poconos, and mountains
surrounding the Wyoming Valley. The valley itself will see
varying amounts of 0.10 to 0.25 inches, with locally a half
inch to an inch of sleet.
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28 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I believe the trainer has been monitoring the snow levels in the Sierra Nevada and had recently reported a shutout for the month of January... 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/03/us/california-drought-snow-dry-january-climate/index.html

For Mammoth Mountain in the eastern Sierra:

January 2021: 108.5" 

January 2022: 0"

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57 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I believe the trainer has been monitoring the snow levels in the Sierra Nevada and had recently reported a shutout for the month of January... 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/03/us/california-drought-snow-dry-january-climate/index.html

They don't need it.  They got approximately a quadrillion inches at the end of 2021.

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4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

They don't need it.  They got approximately a quadrillion inches at the end of 2021.

An average season at Main Lodge (8900' elevation) is 206". They are at 203" for the season, so even with a shutout January and NO foreseeable end to the snow drought, they should go above normal since their season runs into May.

I think the issue is that pretty much all of the  203" came in 20 days during the final half of December. If things don't turn around soon, they'll be closing months earlier than normal as the sunny, warm days are eroding the pack pretty quickly. Main Lodge is down to 60 something inches...at the start of 2022 it was 155".  Point being, by the time traditional runoff season begins in the spring, what they have now will likely be gone. It is exceptionally rare to go 6 weeks at this time of year with zero snowfall. Forecasters out there say the next snow is at least 3 weeks away. That's bizarre. 

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Temp back down from high a little earlier of 42.1 to the current 39.9.  So far I have recorded 0.85" of rain.  It is currently raining moderately to occasionally heavily.  I can't believe that my grid for tonight has me receiving an additional 1 to 2 inches!  Unless things have changed radically since last night, I was only supposed to get around 1.8" total.  That leaves about an inch left to receive.  I'm writing this not having checked out the current runs as I just got home from the gym.

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Looks like Pittsburgh and Mt Holly have added some flood watches into the mix. This would be a better question for our board red-tagger, but I wonder if it's rained or may rain enough for parts of the Juniata to get a similar treatment in some of the more vulnerable places like the Aughwick in Shirleysburg? 

 

For you Cumberland valley folks, how high are the waters there? Any concerns about the Conodoguinet or Swatara in spots?

 

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3 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

I have a five inch pond of water sitting on top of a solid sheet of ice by my front door. I cannot WAIT to see how this plays out as the cold air approaches. 

This is pretty much the condition of every non-paved driveway around here today despite mid 30s temps, and we haven’t even got to the actual winter storm part of the system yet haha.

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41.2f in Camp Hill at the moment and we've had 1.15in (probably more my gauge doesn't seem to work right half the time) of rain. Debating if I want to pull my car off the street but it really doesnt seem like the ice should be that much of an issue for us before I leave for work

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1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Temp back down from high a little earlier of 42.1 to the current 39.9.  So far I have recorded 0.85" of rain.  It is currently raining moderately to occasionally heavily.  I can't believe that my grid for tonight has me receiving an additional 1 to 2 inches!  Unless things have changed radically since last night, I was only supposed to get around 1.8" total.  That leaves about an inch left to receive.  I'm writing this not having checked out the current runs as I just got home from the gym.

18z GFS still brings in the Freezing rain to the Harrisburg area before 7am and keeps it going until early afternoon.


 

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49 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Looks like Pittsburgh and Mt Holly have added some flood watches into the mix. This would be a better question for our board red-tagger, but I wonder if it's rained or may rain enough for parts of the Juniata to get a similar treatment in some of the more vulnerable places like the Aughwick in Shirleysburg? 

 

For you Cumberland valley folks, how high are the waters there? Any concerns about the Conodoguinet or Swatara in spots?

 

I could certainly at least see a few flood advisories pop up this evening for the smaller tributary and poor drainage type stuff. From what I saw around here before dark there was a pretty good response with run-off and most of the small streams and drainage channels are snow/ice clogged. It’s either doing that or just absorbing into the snowpack.. but definitely not into the frozen ground. Unless there’s any ice jam type issue I think the bigger streams/rivers will be okay, although all those rivers you mention are forecast to get at or near caution stage. Main stem Susquehanna looks to be only a modest rise. 

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