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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Overnight temp of 60 and total rain of .13".  My thoughts on the upcoming event:

I don't see this as an overly impactful event for those of us in the LSV.  The Low to our west is a little too high and tight and the High above us trickles east just a smidge too much, all without a truly arctic airmass in place  There is a deep warm layer centered around 800mb, on the back of strong S to SW flow, that is only going to get deeper and warmer as the event progresses.  Despite tomorrow turning nice and cool, marginal surface temps just below freezing and recent warming could make accumulation of whatever falls tricky.  The short-term models are also starting to pick up on the presence of a pretty significant dry slot over much of central PA late Thursday night, which ironically enough, could help with the ice accretion as drizzle would be more likely to accrete than a more moderate rain in a marginal temp environment.  All in all, I see at best a trace of wet snow at the onset followed by a brief period of sleet and then an extended period of freezing rain/drizzle.  Whether the roads get dicey at all may depend on whether we can get a layer of sleet to coat them first, as others have mentioned.  I think things soften up by midday and outside of the early morning time period, don't see too may issues.  The obvious caveat is that CAD can often overperform so we'll have to keep an eye out for that but I'm just not really seeing it with this setup.  I think the more serious impacts will be confined to the more northern areas of the forum.  I am absolutely not buying some of the more extreme freezing rain outcomes being depicted on some of the models (shocking I know) and think anything approaching a quarter inch would be big for our area.  I should also add that the only meaningful snow I see falling is in extreme northeastern PA.  In short, warm air wins again.  As always, I would love to be wrong.

Well said man.  Well said.  FWIW I want you to be wrong as well....but think you end up close to really right. 

I 80 and N is best area for troubles with best likelyhood a decent winter weather being rt6 from Tioga/Bradford counties and east (assuming the cold gets deep enough in those areas). If it doesnt, then they would likely deal w/ more ice IMO 

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14 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP’s impact map goes along with my thinking. Minimal roadway problems in the LSV. 
 

I generally agree for main roads if freezing rain is the main mix p-type, but if it starts as a sleet bomb there will definitely be roadway issues… which I don’t think that map product even considers. That map is generated off of whatever CTP and other forecast CWA’s have input into their grid forecasts and those impacts are calculated off of certain criteria (ice, snow, blowing snow, flash freeze, ground blizzard, snow load), which can be separated out on the WPC site. You can see the difference between grids for CTP and PIT. 

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10 minutes ago, anotherman said:

68 in Mount Joy.

 

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I'm at 66 but expect to pop in the upper 60s within the next 1-2 hours.  Are you in downtown Mount Joy?  Yes, that's me entering stalker mode again haha.

66.2 at home. Kind of hoping we'd make a run at 70 will likely end up a little short. 

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6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Very reasonable takes in here.  It’s tough to get real impact at 31/32 degrees as we’ve seen so many times in the past.  Each situation is different, would like one to trend towards more wintry weather (of course!).  The ICON and GFS were noticeably colder at 12Z for whatever it’s worth.  

The timing of this event being mostly Thur evening into Fri morning favors freezing rain accrual with say 30-31 temps, esp if it starts as and/or mixes with sleet. If this were primarily coming through during the day we are getting within that time of the year where solar would have an impact on such things.

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6 minutes ago, TimB said:

GFS wants to bring a massive ridge to start met spring. Could you imagine a third snowless March in a row?

Maybe the guy from MU will be right again after all? He essentially called winter off for us folks a couple of weeks ago. (he's also referring to tomorrow night's event as the "final" winter event):

This month may very well be remembered for the dramatic temperature rollercoaster ride that began on February 1 and will continue through February 28. We'll end up seeing high temperatures reach or exceed the 60-degree mark on 5 different occasions (including tomorrow), but have also experienced two days with highs in the upper 20s. To illustrate how dramatic the ups-and-downs have been, the high on President's Day (February 21) reached 64 degrees following a bitterly cold low of 16 on Sunday morning (February 20). Right now, we're still immersed in one of the "crests" on the rollercoaster, but the "dip" that's right around the corner (Thursday/Thursday night) may set the stage for one last wintry mess.

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33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It'll be interesting to follow the strength of  the airmass coming in - we're getting to the time of the year when actual temps often outperform the models. (especially on sunny days) 

The CMC's take on the extreme cold is the one after this weekend.   Monday night.  One could argue we are getting extreme cold at the expense of losing a snow storm. 

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