Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: Drats, I didn't. I think they're way late though - I sense a big warmup the 2nd week of March, even if shortlived. Still only 62 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 It’s scrutinizing time. Here’s the Euro at 42 hours. 1 hr ptype 2m temps 925mb (3000ft) temps 850mb What part of all that would make one think such a widespread area of freezing rain in southern PA? The -3 to -6ºC 925mb temps alone easily suggest to me sleetbomb and the 850 level isn’t even evacuated out Harrisburg and north at that point. The p-type map is really suspect to me if those low level temps in fact end up that cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: What part of all that would make one think such a widespread area of freezing rain in southern PA? The -3 to -6ºC 925mb temps alone easily suggest to me sleetbomb and the 850 level isn’t even evacuated out Harrisburg and north at that point. The p-type map is really suspect to me if those low level temps in fact end up that cold. MAG talking dirty. Gotta love that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Maybe the guy from MU will be right again after all? He essentially called winter off for us folks a couple of weeks ago. (he's also referring to tomorrow night's event as the "final" winter event): This month may very well be remembered for the dramatic temperature rollercoaster ride that began on February 1 and will continue through February 28. We'll end up seeing high temperatures reach or exceed the 60-degree mark on 5 different occasions (including tomorrow), but have also experienced two days with highs in the upper 20s. To illustrate how dramatic the ups-and-downs have been, the high on President's Day (February 21) reached 64 degrees following a bitterly cold low of 16 on Sunday morning (February 20). Right now, we're still immersed in one of the "crests" on the rollercoaster, but the "dip" that's right around the corner (Thursday/Thursday night) may set the stage for one last wintry mess. Is he talking about final for the month of February though? Sun/Mon is still in February and that potential event seems to be by the wayside. There’s some conflicting signals, but given what I see overall teleconnection wise the next couple weeks there’s no way in heck I’d just call winter off after Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Is he talking about final for the month of February though? Sun/Mon is still in February and that potential event seems to be by the wayside. There’s some conflicting signals, but given what I see overall teleconnection wise the next couple weeks there’s no way in heck I’d just call winter off after Friday. I certainly don't want to speak in his place, but he has previously mentioned that he thought that wintry weather was over for the Lanco area other than some nuisance events. That might not have been his exact wording, but close. I thought it was a bold way to go, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 It's 69.4 on the station... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I certainly don't want to speak in his place, but he has previously mentioned that he thought that wintry weather was over for the Lanco area other than some nuisance events. That might not have been his exact wording, but close. I thought it was a bold way to go, personally. He did go too gung ho on last weekend. Had the 50 word in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Beautiful outside it will be difficult going from the 60s to the 20s that is for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I've fallen to 67, so no 70 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I certainly don't want to speak in his place, but he has previously mentioned that he thought that wintry weather was over for the Lanco area other than some nuisance events. That might not have been his exact wording, but close. I thought it was a bold way to go, personally. I do remember reading that previous post and I didn’t really read it as him suggesting winter was over in that post. I’ll have to find it again at some point. I mean it is a fair take now that we’ll be entering March in 5 days, especially in the LSV. But aside from trying to hash out what the MJO is going to do, I see the EPO/WPO forecast to take another dive second week of March and now the NAO/AO being forecast to at least neutralize in that timeframe as well. Yea there’s going to be more spring fling to be had the next couple weeks and AC’s cranking and @candersonis going to be doing more planting and garden prep haha… but you get those teleconnections lined up and start getting shortened wavelengths with the seasonal transition in the right spot and suddenly you might be talking about maybe not another wintry mess, but a clean snowstorm. March is going to March, aka be unpredictable. 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's 69.4 on the station... Enjoy it haha, that colds coming fast. It’s down to 35ºF here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: I do remember reading that previous post and I didn’t really read it as him suggesting winter was over in that post. I’ll have to find it again at some point. I mean it is a fair take now that we’ll be entering March in 5 days, especially in the LSV. But aside from trying to hash out what the MJO is going to do, I see the EPO/WPO forecast to take another dive second week of March and now the NAO/AO being forecast to at least neutralize in that timeframe as well. Yea there’s going to be more spring fling to be had the next couple weeks and AC’s cranking and @candersonis going to be doing more planting and garden prep haha… but you get those teleconnections lined up and start getting shortened wavelengths with the seasonal transition in the right spot and suddenly you might be talking about maybe not another wintry mess, but a clean snowstorm. March is going to March, aka be unpredictable. Enjoy it haha, that colds coming fast. It’s down to 35ºF here. I bet the prospect of a windy snowstorm in mid March keeps Canderson up at nights 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I bet the prospect of a windy snowstorm in mid March keeps Canderson up at nights Canderson winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I bet the prospect of a windy snowstorm in mid March keeps Canderson up at nights It's windy af out now. 37 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: It's windy af out now. 37 mph gusts. My trashcan went down again (not joking). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2pm temperature roundup: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 53 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: It’s scrutinizing time. Here’s the Euro at 42 hours. 1 hr ptype 2m temps 925mb (3000ft) temps 850mb What part of all that would make one think such a widespread area of freezing rain in southern PA? The -3 to -6ºC 925mb temps alone easily suggest to me sleetbomb and the 850 level isn’t even evacuated out Harrisburg and north at that point. The p-type map is really suspect to me if those low level temps in fact end up that cold. I picked the 2 that look best to me. I, like many down here in LSV often are left waiting for the cold, and while we usually get it, its a few hours late (and when best qpf has already scooted by. That said, the GFS has 2m temps that have frozen in our forecast, but 850's are right on the cusp of IP vs Zr here. 700's look ok I'm pulling for the sleetfest, but am wary for sure. by 48, you can see we are cooked. Still enough time to convince me/others that it may happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 @paweather, the hidden 18Z HRRR which I only have access to, is a bit colder at the surface than the 12Z was...especially up your way. But it certainly does not scream life threatening ice storm with temps 31-32 at 2M for your area. I understand it is night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 50 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Is he talking about final for the month of February though? Sun/Mon is still in February and that potential event seems to be by the wayside. There’s some conflicting signals, but given what I see overall teleconnection wise the next couple weeks there’s no way in heck I’d just call winter off after Friday. NAO/AO are not looking very good, which is my worry. EPO going - should help ridge axis out west, but PNA going - offsets and suggests zonal at best (which doesnt do it in Morch), w/ likelyhood of SER being close enough to play spoiler IMO. If Im missing something, tell me where you think I'm off base. I/we be glad to hear your thoughts. I'm no kid, but I'm still learning. Thx boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: @paweather, the hidden 18Z which I only have access to, is a bit colder at the surface than the 12Z was...especially up your way. But it certainly does not scream life threatening ice storm with temps 31-32 at 2M for your area. I understand it is night. Yep makes sense 31-32 shouldn't be bad I would rather have a sleetfest like NUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: Yep makes sense 31-32 shouldn't be bad I would rather have a sleetfest like NUT. withough snowpack zr is only good when frigid temps and snow follow it....otherwise....no thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Nothing yet from CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, paweather said: Nothing yet from CTP. Lol gonna be regionwide lackluster WWAs. Always the route taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol gonna be regionwide lackluster WWAs. Always the route taken. We hardly ever reach warning criteria anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, paweather said: Nothing yet from CTP. Just taking the HRRR, the last thing I looked at, nothing major in CTP land until after dark Thursday. Over 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just taking the HRRR, the last thing I looked at, nothing major in CTP land until after dark Thursday. Over 24 hours. yeah they may wait until tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Looks good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Looks good:Yes, NAM mostly sleet. That would be a good thing.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Yes, NAM mostly sleet. That would be a good thing. . Yep Sleetfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, paweather said: Yep Sleetfest Palmyra schools...two hour delay, no morning kindergarten? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Palmyra schools...two hour delay, no morning kindergarten? HAHA! Palmyra schools will be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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