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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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No precip/snow here yet.  Temp holding steady at 30.7 degrees.  However, the dew point is 18 degrees and more importantly, the wet bulb is 27 degrees.  Those numbers easily imply cooling by 2-3 degrees once serious precip arrives.  Regardless of what happens aloft, I know my temp is going to struggle to reach 32.0 before 7am tomorrow morning.  With almost the entire event taking place during the night, the maximum potential of freezing rain, should that be the predominant ptype, will be realized.  NWS has most of us in the WWA getting up to 3" of snow/sleet and up to a 0.25' of ice.  The sleet will be the main story during the first half of the storm.  The second half could be the freezing rain.  I'm not talking about the daytime stuff, which was never supposed to be more than a trace.  The action doesn't start until after 7pm. 

>>update...the first flakes are just now beginning to fall here...so slowly I can practically count them (lol)

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I am not posting to irritate you of course.  I am getting into my "hold on to winter" mode which will conflict with you but not personal  LOL

Oh, I know that. My sad face reactions are on a having fun level. That's why I made a post to follow up. It's all good. :)

 

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Well the 2 NAMs are definitely drier compared to the GFS by 50%!  Total QPF GFS around 1.10" with total on both  NAMs between 0.5" to 0.6".

12K freezing rain (for MDT area) 0.2" with 0.15" ice accretion

3K freezing rain only 0.08" with 0.07" ice accretion.

Extrapolating it looks like there are several hours of sleet between when it starts (which isn't until 10:00pm on both) and 1:00am.  Then changeover to light freezing rain on and off until 7am.  Then approximately 0.05" - 0.10" of plain rain at the end which is by 10:00am.  

Now, which ones do we believe are most likely to play out the way they currently show?

BTW, I'm still 30.7 but the period of super-light snow increased the dew point up to 22.  Wet bulb now 27.5 so the cooling potential remains in tact (for now).

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