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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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I know I'll regret saying this...BUT shouldn't we be putting more stock in the NAM at this range and with this set-up?  The old rule used to be globals were too aggressive (warm) with surface temps when the high was parked in this spot.  The high isn't racing east this time.  I know we underperformed ice lately, but this is a different set-up than the last few.

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5 minutes ago, Voyager said:

CTP going with more sleet than freezing rain for Tamaqua per the new point forecast.

They've listed every possible weather for me lol

Thursday Night Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 1am and 4am, then rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 4am. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 30. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of around a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.


Friday Rain and sleet before 11am, then a chance of rain between 11am and 3pm. High near 42. Southeast wind 6 to 14 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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40 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

Run after run some big numbers even cut this in half still trouble. zr_acc.us_ne.png

My takeaway here is that the freezing rain line is way south into MD.  Even if it's wrong by 50-70 miles, we're still in the crosshairs.  I'm usually pretty down on these threats but I think this one could be impactful.

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Check out the GFS.  Definitely believe it when I see it.  Maps like this have fallen to the wayside several time's this years.  Maybe not this time.

image.png.0912e2d83cb6ecdf89fdfaf4dd54008a.png

 

Dewpoint is 27-28 when precip starts on the GFS.  Upper 20's is different than 31/32 in these situations. 

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5 minutes ago, canderson said:

My parents in Texas experienced a 57 degree temp swing in 24 hours. 89 at 2 pm yesterday, was 31 at 2 pm today. Currently it’s sleeting and they have iced surfaces everywhere. Go do a Google traffic look at Dallas ….

Lol times a million…….

But I didn’t think ice could accumulate on ground that was recently warm and only at temps of 31 degrees…..

There might be a chance this happens on PA roads tomorrow night & Friday am….

Lol!

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12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

@MAG5035
Mt. Holly & Binghamton have Watches, but I guess if you cross the border from Berks to Lebanon or from Luzerne to Schuylkill county, no Watch type weather to worry about!

Yea I don’t know it’s whatever I guess…like I mentioned this morning I don’t know why you don’t put a blanket watch out for at least a big chunk of the CWA and go warning/advisory as needed when you see where the sig ice swath is looking to set up in the near term. It better warns the public IMO. Most non-weenies aren’t going to read the HWO haha.  It was even mentioned in the discussion this morning about issuing watches/warnings even if it’s just short of criteria due to the impact on roads. I mean the model support for warning criteria as well as WPC probs has been there for at least issuing a watch for the potential over a good bit more of the area than they have.

At any rate we’re less than 24hrs from this starting and It’s likely to at least be a higher impact advisory event for most. 1-2”+ of sleet followed by 0.1-0.2” of ice isn’t gonna be much better on the roads than up to an inch of sleet and 0.2-0.4”+ of ice. 

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