Wmsptwx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 33 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i'm seakin on Da Boat with nut. wonder if he'll pick up the fact i'm jumpin on his tab. Maybe i'll find a hot Hawaiian Tropics chick Hahaha. How you been bud, haven’t talked in awhile!? We should do a baseball game together this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Heading on my 14th cruise in August. (Bermuda) As someone who travels a lot, cruising is at the top of my list. Can't wait! Very nice! Sounds like you're an A-list cruise aficionado. I haven't yet been to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You know...I'm really glad to hear you say this - I've felt for the past couple of weeks that we were about done. (LSV specifically) And, for all the reasons that you just mentioned. To me, this whole winter required almost everything to sync up perfectly for us to score a flush hit. And to play those odds would seem to be a harbinger for disappointment. I was reluctant to share how I felt as I didn't want to be "that guy" who got cursed by others...but it's just felt like it's about over for a good while. Hey, we can get really lucky and end up with something special. Odds certainly don't favor it, but odds didn't favor the US hockey team beating Russia in the 1980 Olympics. That's why the chase lives on, but short of something unforeseen happening, the most likely outcome down this way for the rest of the winter is some scraps. And heading into March - I'll pass on the scraps. Y'all know that I'm not afraid of being "that guy"..... Just callin it as I see it (right or wrong), but the timing of the whole shebangy has just been off....and the result is typically a close miss at best. My hopes from a couple weeks ago, was that the next reshuffle coming up would lock in better in the east, and w/ wavelengths shortening as spring approaches, that we'd get some chances, but IF MJO heads into 4/5/6 coupled w/ the other indicies previously mentioned, it just doesnt scream potential IMO. Mind you, I'm no expert whatsoever, but just using my know/edge (and wee bit of skill that I may posess) from past years. That said, yes, we can still score as the wavelengths start to change, but on a weather map, that in my mind is nothing more than what we've been seeing most of the winter IMO, as we really need the NAO/AO to help us as we get into March but that's not looking likely as of now, so I'd think SER/WAR will likely be a more stable and unwelcomed feature IF the tellies verify as I'm seeing them. Lets hope for changes...and quickly. Feel free to disagree or pick apart my thoughts. (I'm headed to client so I'll be back on after HH). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 19 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I was fully ready to write this one off as "ice never verifies as significant as modeled". But dang that Euro run has me interested! Much colder than the 0Z run. Hey, I hope it can put a jewel back in it's broken crown.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 This could turn into something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Very nice! Sounds like you're an A-list cruise aficionado. I haven't yet been to Bermuda. This is the first time for us - many trips to various parts of the Caribbean, Bahamas, etc., but we're really excited to spend a few days docked by the pink sands in 'Muda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, paweather said: Pretty major ICE bomb on the EURO How much ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: How much ice? Good question don't know for sure a lot though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: How much ice? I just saw this map but the 2M temps are near 30 for much of this (28-32) which still makes me wonder how bad it would actually be. Mid 20's? Then we have issues. Up your way a tad colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Euro snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Lol that’s why I’m confused with this storm up here…is it just rain or a decent sleet/ice event? Euro has big ice all the way to N MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Good question don't know for sure a lot though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol that’s why I’m confused with this storm up here…is it just rain or a decent sleet/ice event? Euro has big ice all the way to N MD. You are definitely not in the "just rain" area. GFS has you ending as rain but most models have you experiencing a fairly decent winter storm either way (as of now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Euro snow I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol that’s why I’m confused with this storm up here…is it just rain or a decent sleet/ice event? Euro has big ice all the way to N MD. The only thing I’m wondering about in your neck of the woods is when CTP issues the watches and what combo of impacts is going to make up that watch lol. The 12z Euro just gave IPT 4.3” of snow prior to changeover to ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I think the models are starting to respond to the high pressure that will be in place to our north in terms of CAD. No change to my opinion I made a couple days ago that I thought this was the best setup in terms of high placement we’ve seen this winter. You can see on all models that the high moves a bit but generally stays in place in southern Quebec during the passage of this system. It doesn’t get shoved east out of the way. What would be really nice is just a little bit more resistance from that high to force the low under PA. Then I think we all could be in business for more front end WAA snow. As I see it currently, I think everyone sees at least advisory level ice/mix and not just a T either. The opening blast of WAA precip probably comes in as sleet or snow (dependent on intensity and timing). Then comes trying to hash out the different corridors of p-type. I-80 north stands the best chance of seeing several inches of snow/sleet and some ice but potentially having a more frozen event. The central counties below I-80 in the ridge and valley region (including the Laurels) stand the best chance of seeing warning level freezing rain and/or a stripe of more significant sleet somewhere in there. If this continues to tend colder it could shift the significant freezing rain down into the Laurel’s and southern tier ridge and valley with more frozen precip in the rest of that particular region. The Sus Valley probably sees a combo of everything (even snow) but doesn’t add up to warning criteria. It is possible though, especially H-burg north. That’s my current best take on this. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 That huge rain dryslot working its way into the LSV reminds me of how this season has gone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Get your ice picks ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, paweather said: Get your ice picks ready Looks like it'll still be near 40 Friday afternoon and above freezing Saturday and Sunday. Whatever sticks probably will melt quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, canderson said: Looks like it'll still be near 40 Friday afternoon and above freezing Saturday and Sunday. Whatever sticks probably will melt quick. Yeah not as cold as last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Winds are really gusty right now and the temp is rising - 59 here now. So far, .19" of rain has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Winds are really gusty right now and the temp is rising - 59 here now. So far, .19" of rain has fallen. And just to think by Thursday we will be singing a different tune welcome to March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 So when are WSW going up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 This is one interesting CTP forecast for southern Perry county! Thursday Night Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 31. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Friday Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 7am, then rain or freezing rain between 7am and 1pm. High near 40. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18z GFS is trying to bring back the Sunday snow chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The 18z Euro & RGEM have CTP in the freezing rain bullseye Thursday night into Friday. The message, regardless of the amounts, is that there is a good chance of significant freezing rain with this event in our region. Hopefully we get the ground a little snow & sleet covered before the freezing rain takes over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Good discussion from CTP on this event: Main focus this period remains on southern stream shortwave and associated surface low lifting northeast toward Pa late Thursday into early Friday. The bulk of latest guidance tracks the primary low into western Pa with a weak secondary coastal low development and a blocking high over northern New England. This scenario favors a wintry mix for much of central Pa late Thursday into through Friday morning. Plenty of GOMEX moisture/above normal PWs accompanying this system should result in a fairly significant precipitation event, with latest ensemble plumes indicating 0.5 to 1.25 inches of [liquid equivalent] precip most likely. Latest model thermal profiles currently support snow to mixed precip over the north and mixed precip to rain in the south. We were keen to utilize NBM unconditional PoWT to derive wx types and used a blend of NBM/WPC/NBM v4.1/EXP for snow and ice accumulations. The heaviest/significant snow accums 4+ inches are most likely north of I-80 across the northern tier of CPA. A broad wintry mix zone of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is probable mainly from US-6 south to the PA Turnpike, with a icy mix to rain transition fcst from the PA Turnpike south to the MD line. The exception will be across the Laurel Highlands, with a high probability of >0.25" of ice accumulation based on the aforementioned multi model blend and supported by the WPC WWO. We will wait another cycle before considering headlines; but this event looks like a solid advisory for most of CPA pushing warning criteria for ice in the Laurels and for snow across the northern tier. Hazardous travel conditions are very likely later Thursday into Friday (HWO). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The 3k NAM came in colder and really delivers the heavy sleet even to the LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 30 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 3k NAM came in colder and really delivers the heavy sleet even to the LSV. It's definitely trying to suck me back in.... HP doin its thingy up in da land of da Quebecians Just not sure how much further south we can get thermals for us Southern folks. I'd take a sleetfest as a big win down here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Let’s do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now