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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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Here is CTP’s morning discussion.

”SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... All eyes on this period. What is going to be a quick shot (generally 9-12 hrs most places) of precip will be significant in that we could have very disruptive amounts of all the different wintry p-types fall. It all boils down to how warm it gets aloft. The QPF is significant (0.50-1.00") for such a short time frame. The sfc low comes up the western side of the App Mtns tonight, crossing the NW part of the CWA, and then moving into central NY Friday morning. This track, and the good nose of warm air aloft which it helps to push northward thru the CWA, will force a transition from SN_>PL->FZRA. Some places may turn to rain before the precip tapers off Fri AM. Very high confidence in FZRA and 0.25+" ice accums over the Laurels. Very high confidence in sub-advy amounts of both ice and sleet/snowfall elsewhere. The sleet will probably be a significant portion of the precip over the central mtns. Extended the reach of the warning a tier of counties beyond/NE of the previous watch area. The elevations and high commercial/Interstate travel thru Blair and Clearfield counties played heavily in that decision. The potential for high wind gusts on Friday behind the sfc low/cold front makes worry for power outages even beyond the time it is precipitating. These places (along with the Laurels) are where the winds will be strongest. Bust potential lives in two main areas: First, the far northern tier could stay snow with 1+"/hr rates lasting even just 1-2hrs more could push them over 6" before a turnover to PL (but likely not FZRA). That might necessitate a warning for the snowfall there. The second area would be the central mtns and Susq Valley where more FZRA than sleet may occur, and perhaps warrant a warning there. There should be a fairly quick end to the precip Friday morning. But, we`ve kept the WWAs should hold quick improvement after a very messy morning. Sct SHSN will occur in the Laurels as the wind picks up and temps drop Fri. However, most of the area will dry up and the sun will poke thru over the SE half of the area for the aftn. Temps may rise just a little in the NW before falling in the aftn, and only modest (5-10F) rises from sunrise temps are expected elsewhere.”

 

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Doesn't seem to be that big of a deal, and the precip may even shut off by shortly after the morning commute, which means perhaps a late start but not a full "snow day" for me. Such is the way it goes this winter. Almost every freezing/frozen event seems to be a 6pm to 6am event. 

For once, I want my 3 day weekend. Otherwise, I wish it would just rain.

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26 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Doesn't seem to be that big of a deal, and the precip may even shut off by shortly after the morning commute, which means perhaps a late start but not a full "snow day" for me. Such is the way it goes this winter. Almost every freezing/frozen event seems to be a 6pm to 6am event. 

For once, I want my 3 day weekend. Otherwise, I wish it would just rain.

You might have to do this tomorrow morning How to put tire chains on a semi-truck

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All the talk about trends this year...the thing that most sticks out to me about the 12Z HRRR is the lack of qpf.   Outside some light scattered stuff, its basically a midnight to 4PM thing in the LSV as to that initial WAA.    That qpf reduction, regardless of reason,  has been happening over and over recently. 

image.thumb.png.ebace8ca451505977e42bac191481bd1.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Temps are now near freezing in the LSV.

Just about all of PA has dew points ranging in the teens.

Temps should drop further when precip arrives.

surprised to see 29 on way into office.  actually saw about a dozen lost and lonely snowflakes while stopping for coffee. Not sure ground will be frozen when the plethora of wintery precip gets here, but I down w/ whatever we get.  Roads were being brined when i came in as well.

 

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Been pouring over the skew-T's here this morning and I'm still going with a minimal type impact event for those of us along the southern tier.  The temp profile is still very marginal and basically all layers that matter are at or above freezing by daybreak.  I also think the the late night dry-slotting is a real thing, as a couple of hi-res models have been showing.  Things will obviously be a bit worse for those above, say, Peters Mountain (shout out to @mahantango#1) and I actually think areas around @Atomixwx see the worst of the icing, but down here, meh, just stay off the roads around daybreak and things should improve pretty quickly by mid morning.  Cheers to those in the money!

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Just now, sauss06 said:

solid advice

Back to my CTP comments last night - it's tough to make decisions today. I have a lot of single parents working here who are in a huge bind when schools are closed. I'm very sensitive to that. But, there's still a business to run, and we have a lot of institutions like hospitals, nursing homes, and schools that are depending on our delivery. It's not an easy balance.  

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Going to be tough call up here on how much snow. I think the FRZ will be on the table. We are snow/sleet up here regardless of the models in this set-up. Never see a lot of FRZ in my 20 years here but shoveled a ton of sleet.

Current temperature gradient really evident NE to SW across the state. I am sitting at 19 currently.

 

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Just now, Greensnow said:

Going to be tough call up here on how much snow. I think the FRZ will be on the table. We are snow/sleet up here regardless of the models in this set-up. Never see a lot of FRZ in my 20 years here but shoveled a ton of sleet.

Current temperature gradient really evident NE to SW across the state. I am sitting at 19 currently.

 

OFF the table LOL.

 

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