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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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7 minutes ago, anotherman said:


Just my opinion but I think this winter has beaten us down, hence the mindset that no storm will ever go our way. I think people are probably just anxious to get it over with. Watching Cape May get two 12”+ storms while we get scraps will do that to you.

I know what you mean. This Winter at least has had several events to track that have unfortunately bullseyed areas in all directions about 100 to 150 miles away. We have been in the game in the Susquehanna Valley, but have not yet cashed in. 
I don’t think that we are done yet. The EPO & WPO are heading negative again next week. The AO & NAO will be going at least toward neutral during this time. I think that we will have more tracking ahead of us in March and hopefully it will be our turn to score snow.

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45 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

32/29 here with at most .1” of sleet and .1” of ice accretion. Walked all around and roads are just wet and even my front walkway has zero ice on it.  Can already hear things melting off. As expected, virtually a non-event here.  Congrats to those who got something worth talking about.  Look forward to hearing @Atomixwx ice report.  Some nice cold upcoming. 

Interesting...everything save the roads (which is slushy) is still encased in ice. My steps and sidewalk are a mess. Things are improving now that the temp is 31.9, but this greatly exceeded my "prediction".

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Sometimes the weather excites us

Sometimes the weather frustrates us

Sometimes the weather makes us sad

Sometimes the weather fascinates us

Sometimes the weather might even scare us

And sometimes...the weather humbles us

 

I was seriously downplaying the ice factor for last night. I was wrong, and I'm not afraid to admit it. Another lesson learned, to file away and add to 50 years of continuous learning. 

That's what I love most about this hobby - you just don't really know. 

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Pouring sleet right now, probably about an 80/20 blend IP vs ZR. Approx 1.2” of sleet accumulation. 31ºF/30ºF

 

Glad you guys are getting the goods sleet wise.  Thats what I was hoping for down here.  Had a little bit at onset, then ZR took over.  I'd say we verified the WWA w/ prob .10 ice accretion, but driving into office was just fine.  Only ice spots were bridges (typical), and they were just slush.  Also looks like northern tier only got a few inches of snnow at best (as per cams that i look at).  Couple guys are headed up w/ sleds....and I don't think they'll be happy.  Maybe the next one gets us.

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Interesting...everything save the roads (which is slushy) is still encased in ice. My steps and sidewalk are a mess. Things are improving now that the temp is 31.9, but this greatly exceeded my "prediction".

I always do horrible in these marginal situations due to my low lying location. Either way, the expectation was for things to be mostly fine by mid to late morning and that still looks to be the case for nearly everyone around here. The Lancaster incidents report map looks pretty quiet. 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Glad you guys are getting the goods sleet wise.  Thats what I was hoping for down here.  Had a little bit at onset, then ZR took over.  I'd say we verified the WWA w/ prob .10 ice accretion, but driving into office was just fine.  Only ice spots were bridges (typical), and they were just slush.  Also looks like northern tier only got a few inches of snnow at best (as per cams that i look at).  Couple guys are headed up w/ sleds....and I don't think they'll be happy.  Maybe the next one gets us.

Looks like the snow underperformed well up into NY State based on their thread this morning. Sleet line moved farther north than anticipated (shocking) and they're saying that it's winding down quicker than thought as well. 

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Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I always do horrible in these marginal situations due to my low lying location. Either way, the expectation was for things to be mostly fine by mid to late morning and that still looks to be the case for nearly everyone around here. The Lancaster incidents report map looks pretty quiet. 

Agreed. 

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47 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I know what you mean. This Winter at least has had several events to track that have unfortunately bullseyed areas in all directions about 100 to 150 miles away. We have been in the game in the Susquehanna Valley, but have not yet cashed in. 
I don’t think that we are done yet. The EPO & WPO are heading negative again next week. The AO & NAO will be going at least toward neutral during this time. I think that we will have more tracking ahead of us in March and hopefully it will be our turn to score snow.

JMO's but neutral aint gonna cut it in March (we'll I guess you'd say it is)...cause we'll be getting cutters or wrong side of boundary as we need NAO to suppress the flow in the east.  Believe me when I say I wanna be wrong.  

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5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I always do horrible in these marginal situations due to my low lying location. Either way, the expectation was for things to be mostly fine by mid to late morning and that still looks to be the case for nearly everyone around here. The Lancaster incidents report map looks pretty quiet. 

Just having driven 28 miles to work, it was a nothingburger....and I'd say GET TO WORK!!! :lol:

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10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like the snow underperformed well up into NY State based on their thread this morning. Sleet line moved farther north than anticipated (shocking) and they're saying that it's winding down quicker than thought as well. 

Yeah that possibility was being widely shown by the hi-res models as well. Just never really a snow storm for our area but I am curious to hear about the ice accumulation from some of our northern brethren. 

 

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Also, in hindsight I wish I would have measured the sleet. I have no idea how much I received but it was certainly more than .1". I had about 3 hours of sleet, much of it was moderate to heavy. 

Oh wow we had nothing near that here. I could hear the sleet shut-off not long after it started while lying in bed. 

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12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah that possibility was being widely shown by the hi-res models as well. Just never really a snow storm for our area but I am curious to hear about the ice accumulation from some of our northern brethren. 

 

Oh wow we had nothing near that here. I could hear the sleet shut-off not long after it started while lying in bed. 

It started as a burst of ZR here...after 10-15 minutes, it flipped to heavy sleet. That lasted about 30 minutes. There was a brief pause, then a good 2+ hours of moderate to heavy sleet that was winding down when I fell asleep between 1-1:30am. 

I wonder if you were raining during that period...

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21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It started as a burst of ZR here...after 10-15 minutes, it flipped to heavy sleet. That lasted about 30 minutes. There was a brief pause, then a good 2+ hours of moderate to heavy sleet that was winding down when I fell asleep between 1-1:30am. 

I wonder if you were raining during that period...

We’ll never know because this guy was sleeping like a log at that point!

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51 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like the snow underperformed well up into NY State based on their thread this morning. Sleet line moved farther north than anticipated (shocking) and they're saying that it's winding down quicker than thought as well. 

Just confirmed Coudersport to Galeton areas received 2" of snow/sleet.  Underperformed up there for sure.  Sledders are NOT happy.  

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40 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah that possibility was being widely shown by the hi-res models as well. Just never really a snow storm for our area but I am curious to hear about the ice accumulation from some of our northern brethren. 

 

Oh wow we had nothing near that here. I could hear the sleet shut-off not long after it started while lying in bed. 

seeing the landscape on drive in, I'd say it was rather uniform in my .1 accretion estimate.  I'm sure the microclimate thingy could prove that wrong in certain areas, but Lanco was a run of the mill minor event.  

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56 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like the snow underperformed well up into NY State based on their thread this morning. Sleet line moved farther north than anticipated (shocking) and they're saying that it's winding down quicker than thought as well. 

snow cams in Tug/Lowville/Old Forge area look decent, but not sure how much.  I'd guess they got 6+, but a webcam is not the most accurate way to measure..:P

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Since it appears true weather related topics may be limited in the next week, here's one from one of my favorite subjects - daylight.  As of today (for Lancaster), we cross the 12 hour threshold for civil twilight.  It is defined as -

"Civil twilight is the brightest form of twilight. There is enough natural sunlight during this period that artificial light may not be required to carry out outdoor activities. Only the brightest celestial objects can be observed by the naked eye during this time.

Several countries use this definition of civil twilight to make laws related to aviation, hunting, and the usage of headlights and street lamps."

Illustration showing the Sun's angle below the horizon during the 3 stages of twilight.

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

honestly, at 1230 this morning i would have thought no way would things be open this morning.  i would have laid cash on it. It was that bad. Its been years since i have seen the interstate looking like a demolition derby. 

Yeah, I mean when I went to bed everything was frozen - roads, trees, sidewalks, bedroom, grass, mulch, power lines, etc. It was pouring sleet and it "seemed" to me to be the biggest ice event at my casa in a long time. 

Ground is still white in spots now. 

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like the snow underperformed well up into NY State based on their thread this morning. Sleet line moved farther north than anticipated (shocking) and they're saying that it's winding down quicker than thought as well. 

 

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Just confirmed Coudersport to Galeton areas received 2" of snow/sleet.  Underperformed up there for sure.  Sledders are NOT happy.  

Yup, what else is new. Lol. The warm punch aloft always comes in faster and farther north. It was about a 4 to 5 inch thump of snow for the Thruway corridor. Then, a couple hour window of dryslot and sleet/sizzle, and now the deformation band with moderate to heavy snow. So I "think" we will still make it to forecasted amounts here thanks to the backside. 

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17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yeah, I mean when I went to bed everything was frozen - roads, trees, sidewalks, bedroom, grass, mulch, power lines, etc. It was pouring sleet and it "seemed" to me to be the biggest ice event at my casa in a long time. 

Ground is still white in spots now. 

That is exactly what i was thinking when i went back to bed. Thought for sure we would lose power as well. 

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Good morning all.  It certainly has been interesting reading everyone's posts.  I woke up this morning to the temperature at 32.0 with the freezing rain having just ended.  Everything is coated in a layer of ice that appears to be roughly 0.1" thick...certainly enough to be visible but not heavy enough to weigh down most branches.  As I speak the slow melting has begun as the temperature has risen to 33.3 degrees.  The ground and especially mulch is very white while sidewalks and street have all melted.  

Here are the stats for this storm:  Sleet since midnight = 0.1" ; melted freezing rain = 0.43" ; sleet yesterday = 0.3", melted sleet = 0.09" ; freezing rain yesterday = 0.02" ; total sleet for event = 0.4" ; total freezing rain = 0.45" ; total melted precipitation for the storm = 0.54"

So, ultimately the short range models with their total qpf had the best forecast.  Both NAMs and the HRRR showed between 0.5" to 0.6" of liquid.  The GFS overdid the precip with approximately 1.10" forecast before the storm began.

Yesterday saw every form of winter precipitation possible.  It snowed on and off for a few hours mid-day but did not accumulate, so a trace of snow recorded.  And then last evening saw rain (at the very beginning), sleet, and freezing rain.

One last tidbit of weather info from yesterday...temperature-wise the high was 34.0 and the low was 29.7 for a diurnal range of just 4.3 degrees.  About a week ago I recorded the largest diurnal for this season with a 42 degree spread.

Now it's back to dry weather for the next week unless something pops up out of nowhere like it's done before this winter.

 

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I was perusing through CTP’s first released PNS and various LSRs and I’ve got to say it’s quite underwhelming. Not a single snow or sleet report above 2” and no ZR reports over .32”, even for the Laurels, with most ~.15”. Was really expecting to see some more impactful ice reports out along the high terrain but so far nada. In the grand picture, it’s hard to say this wasn’t a letdown for the region, which has been par for the course this year. 

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