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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


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50 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I think NE GA above 2000-2500 feet is going to do very well.  

Both the 12Z RGEM and NAM now show a more solidified and organized area of snow behind the 500 low over ERN AL and NRN GA...it never made sense to me how disorganized and showery it was looking yesterday but models even in 2022 tend to struggle with precip intensity and coverage behind closed 500 lows in the SRN US because typically the surface feature is not yet well developed or is weak.   They'll never underestimate those parameters in New England or the Great Lakes because often times by then the surface low is deep and organized and the system is more mature.  I think places like Rome on east could see several inches.  

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2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Here’s the Panovich mid-morning blog.  Really focuses on the Charlotte metro area.  Moral of the story:  ICE.

Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) Tweeted:
11am Winter Storm VLOG 1/15/2022: The focus should be on ice and not snow. https://t.co/Bi23qKAXR6 via @YouTube #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wcnc

But Hickory west into Valdese/Morganton  he said looks to get a good 4-6 inches of snow. So I'm happy with that. Now GSP is saying 6-8 inches of snow for these same areas. Just depends on the warm nose but this will for sure meet warning criteria then some. @calculus1

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Local Mets in the Piedmont Triad are calling for around .25inch of ice. That’s not great, but not severe. some of these models are spitting out crazy numbers. What is y’all’s honest opinion? If you live in the triad should you be prepared to lose power?

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2 minutes ago, hickory said:

Local Mets in the Piedmont Triad are calling for around .25inch of ice. That’s not great, but not severe. some of these models are spitting out crazy numbers. What is y’all’s honest opinion? If you live in the triad should you be prepared to lose power?

2-4” of SN/IP 1/10-1/4” ice that area Winston/MT Airy/Up to VA Border always over performs  

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5 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said:

I realize this a dumb layman's question, but does the eruption of that volcano introduce any appreciable element of chaos on our forecast?

Only thing that might(key word) cause will be a long ways down the road. And it would likely have to do with temps and weather patterns according to Ryan Maue. 

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One thing is for sure...the SPC HiRES is not impressed with snow at all in Upstate SC except right along the NC border in the far N.  It also shows potential for big snows on the ensemble max across most of NRN AL/Cntrl TN and far NW GA showing risk of 6-10.  The mean itself is fairly low everywhere.  I am not sure how well it does in SRN snow events but it does well in the Northeast.

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12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

One thing is for sure...the SPC HiRES is not impressed with snow at all in Upstate SC except right along the NC border in the far N.  It also shows potential for big snows on the ensemble max across most of NRN AL/Cntrl TN and far NW GA showing risk of 6-10.  The mean itself is fairly low everywhere.  I am not sure how well it does in SRN snow events but it does well in the Northeast.

Care to post it the final totals of that for Western NC?  CLT west to the mountains. If you can. @SnowGoose69

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1 minute ago, ARyan said:

The HRRR has been trending towards expanding the ZR region NE along the NC/SC border over the past 5 runs or so. Doing a quick glance at the 17z initialization, it appears to be initializing correctly. It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues.

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/?load=prun&prunType=2022011517-HRRR-SE-prec-ptype-18

That has my curiosity up as well

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Local Mets in the Piedmont Triad are calling for around .25inch of ice. That’s not great, but not severe. some of these models are spitting out crazy numbers. What is y’all’s honest opinion? If you live in the triad should you be prepared to lose power?

NWS Raleigh is calling for 0.20”-0.40” with isolated areas approaching 0.50” in their latest WSW statement for the Triad. I’m prepared to be without power for several days.

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Most models seem to be dropping anywhere from 1.25-1.5" of precip across much of the piedmont to the mountains. Most of this falling in the low-mid 20s will make for a travel nightmare regardless on whether the precip is all Snow, Sleet, or Freezing Rain. It's been a long time since we've seen a wedge this stout and having precip amounts being modeled at well over an inch. I think this thing means business and I am looking forward to watching it all unfold from just a pure weather enthusiast's perspective. 

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