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New Years Winter Storm


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1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

I do better with this type of storm chasing stress than that of chasing shit that disappears.  Tomorrow the GFS will be north and the Euro will be south lol.   

 It's a game the models play almost every storm lol. I actually thought of that the other day when the euro was very South. Hopefully we get some good bowling ball type storms this Winter.

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DVN is bullish

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Saturday through next Tuesday...Latest ensembles and blends seem to
be coming together in suggesting a classic southwestern plains low
will develop and "hook" it`s way up along and northwest of the OH
RVR Valley. This path would place much of the CWA under the gun of
heavy def zone snows on northwest flank of H85 mb low pressure
center.  POPs and some confidence increasing on a significant system
for New Years Day, but still plenty of time for additional storm
track deviation. Strong cold dump and temporary arctic fetch still
on track to flow down the western GRT LKS and upper MS RVR Valley
into Sunday behind whatever system can bully it`s way through the
region on Saturday.

 

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ILX likes the NW track. 

 

 

Surface cyclogenesis will
develop in SE Colorado Friday, with the low tracking to western
Missouri by 6 am on New Years Day/Saturday. A warm front ahead of
the low will advance into a cold Canadian high pressure in place
across the northern Midwest. The 12z model suite has kept the
general trend of ECMWF with the northerly track of the low and the
GFS the southerly track. GFS ensemble output is targeting central
IL (roughly the I-72 corridor) for some of the heavier snows from
that system. The ECMWF continues to target northern IL for heavier
snows, roughly north of Galesburg to south Chicago. The blended
extended guidance in our system is leaning toward the northerly
track, and keeping snow amounts down and mainly northwest of
Peoria. While freezing rain signals are present in the transition
zone soundings, it does not appear to be a good setup for an ice
storm in any of our counties, with a lack of persistent sub-
freezing dewpoint air feeding in from the northeast.

Still, there is potential of high impact to travel New Years Day,
so anyone with travel plans toward northern Illinois will need to
keep a close eye on updates to this winter storm system.

After the surface low passes on Saturday, much colder air will
arrive on gusty NW winds. Wind chills will likely drop into the
zero to -15F range by Sunday morning, which will be a rude
awakening after a warm December
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