40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wait...some were hoping this system could still make it up here? I think out of desperation since it's been 40 and foggy since halloween 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wait...some were hoping this system could still make it up here? Lol I don’t think anyone thought your area, but an inch or two on the south coast is the hope after the crazy trends today, even though it’s still less than a 10% chance here. Just checked I’m 215 miles south of you, 215 miles SE from me is Salisbury MA who might get 4-8” with a forecast of 0.1” by their local weather service currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wait...some were hoping this system could still make it up here? AckWaves maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Overall the super south track dumping snow where it is on most models up to this point:… it just seems sort of less likely to happen overall. How often does the Delaware coast get plastered versus Southern New England coast? Not much. It happens. But you know I think it’s true it’s statistically less likely to have that track. That must mean something, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Cape could def get clipped by the goods with one more tick NW on some of these solutions. Back in the interior we are toast barring another 2/5/16 trend. These systems are always ugly though on the northern edge of the QPF gradient. Tons of dry air and a stiff N or NNW wind vector. So you really need to be a solid 30 miles into the modeled precip shield to feel decent about getting anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I'm watching out of interest as it's something to track but unlikely. With that said I don't think 1-2 in the new haven area is out of the realm of possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Nice bump NW on the Icon. Clips the cape and south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I’d be surprised if the 00z gfs doesn’t tick NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The 0z RGEM trimmed the northern edge just slightly. Just a brush for the Cape. The significant trends over the past day have been in VA, MD, and DE as the southern stream is modeled increasingly robust. But there's not much room for this wave to bend the flow further up the coast due to the northern stream height field, so the precipitation bump doesn't translate much northeast up the coast. We still need a major change aloft to get precipitation NW of coastal NJ and the eastern Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d be surprised if the 00z gfs doesn’t tick NW More amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Wow another jump NW on gfs brings south coast into light accumulations. One more 25-50 mile bump from legit snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Wow another jump NW on gfs brings south coast into light accumulations. One more 25-50 mile bump from legit snowstorm. Here we go. I95 special. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Wow another jump NW on gfs brings south coast into light accumulations. One more 25-50 mile bump from legit snowstorm. That’s very close for the south coast and cape… gets snow into this are now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Gfs gets a few inches into se Mass this run… more on the cape. Prob like 1-2 here and 3-5 cape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs gets a few inches into se Mass this run… more on the cape. Prob like 1-2 here and 3-5 cape 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I wonder what the chances are of this trending more NW until tomorrow.... Ever so slight chance of a small accumulation into CT? It's a stretch, but nothing would surprise me these days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Trend today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Gefs is a tick north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Soundings are still really dry in EPA, NJ, CT etc on the GFS. I don't trust the northern edge at all. I love the trends and the GFS looks pretty good at H5 at 30 hours. But the RGEM looks much more reasonable IMO. Same with the 18z EC. Remember when people were calling this wave anafrontal I really really hope this keeps on trending, but I think expectations should remain low north of the Delmarva. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Trend today Get the plows out if we see similar moves tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: We need the northern stream to be weaker and sheared but it isn’t playing ball. That southern vort keeps strengthening but if the northern one does too then it’s prob not enough for us. Chris was talking about the competing forces there earlier and it’s a good way to put it. Yeah agree. Bruce Willis already in the sewer grate ready to hop out and wave his flags at me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 44 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Overall the super south track dumping snow where it is on most models up to this point:… it just seems sort of less likely to happen overall. How often does the Delaware coast get plastered versus Southern New England coast? Not much. It happens. But you know I think it’s true it’s statistically less likely to have that track. That must mean something, right? Especially in a raging La Niña, climo favors this to jump north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Poor Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, George001 said: Especially in a raging La Niña, climo favors this to jump north. We have a raging La Niña? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, George001 said: Especially in a raging La Niña, climo favors this to jump north. Flow is fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Gfs is out to sea next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 .12" of foggy rainfall today...riveting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah agree. Bruce Willis already in the sewer grate ready to hop out and wave his flags at me. Euro initializing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, eduggs said: Soundings are still really dry in EPA, NJ, CT etc on the GFS. I don't trust the northern edge at all. I love the trends and the GFS looks pretty good at H5 at 30 hours. But the RGEM looks much more reasonable IMO. Same with the 18z EC. Remember when people were calling this wave anafrontal I really really hope this keeps on trending, but I think expectations should remain low north of the Delmarva. Yea, the model QPF hallucinators are in for a rude awakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah agree. Bruce Willis already in the sewer grate ready to hop out and wave his flags at me. PD1 lol Ray's already in the bathtub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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