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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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34 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The pacific isn’t our only problem when it comes to the cold this season. Check out our backyard—the Gulf of Maine. Looking and feeling a lot more like Northern Ireland Climo.

A northeast fetch spells rain for a chunk of us with SST’s in the mid to upper 40’s. This going to be a tall bar to get over for the SNE folks (me included) in less-than-great setups/patterns.

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You'll be fine in NH. 

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28 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

“Meaningless”. Most live in the coastal plain. Of course this isn’t meaningless for them. Outside of the cp, I think it’s an important factor in a line —extreme southern Maine down to New London CT—ish. If there isn’t prevailing CAD/WAD we take on the in-situ airmass and that’s predominated by the GOM. This affects surface temps at the margin in many critical ways that modeling doesn’t fully capture—hence the extremely tight gradient in New England climo.

The snow capitals like Burlington and the Whites—yes I agree that this could be fantastic for the far interior.

Burlington is a snow capital?  When did that happen?  Maybe the snowman should head there instead of Brattleboro.

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59 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

“Meaningless”. Most live in the coastal plain. Of course this isn’t meaningless for them. Outside of the cp, I think it’s an important factor in a line —extreme southern Maine down to New London CT—ish. If there isn’t prevailing CAD/WAD we take on the in-situ airmass and that’s predominated by the GOM. This affects surface temps at the margin in many critical ways that modeling doesn’t fully capture—hence the extremely tight gradient in New England climo.

The snow capitals like Burlington and the Whites—yes I agree that this could be fantastic for the far interior.

Again, on the list of factors preventing snow, this is near the bottom

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2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This does not blow chunks.  Let's have a quick hitter, 8"-12", with Tsnow:

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

February 2017 thundersnow style.

We will get hit by something at some point. Like I said not getting at least one moderate event in a season is like not getting a single thunderstorm in spring summer.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

You'll be fine in NH. 

90% of the winter storms here have been a mixed bag since I moved here summer 2015. I’m not “fine” any year or storm for that matter. This year is starting off the same. I see a bunch of weenies fighting persistence that seems to be more entrenched with each passing year… 
 

Interior NNE of course is an exception to this.

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Just now, jbenedet said:

90% of the winter storms here have been a mixed bag since I moved here summer 2015. I’m not “fine” any year or storm for that matter. This year is starting off the same. I see a bunch of weenies fighting persistence that seems to be more entrenched with each passing year… 
 

Interior NNE of course is an exception to this.

90%? You're fine. Dover NH. :lol: 

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44 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Again, on the list of factors preventing snow, this is near the bottom

Everything important happens at the margin, 1 to 2 F in surface temps is huge. For as long as these SST anomalies persist this is hugely critical for the coastal plain; i.e, the most densely populated area of the sub forum.
 

Good talk.

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Has to stay weak for us to score (although EURO was pretty robust). 

Something like Jan 19 2002 would be fitting.

It can be strong...it just depends where the shortwave amplifies. On the Euro, it doesn't amplify until further east...there's a bit more confluence.

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