PhineasC Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 12z NAM almost shredded the entire thing into oblivion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 12z NAM almost shredded the entire thing into oblivion. Fits the theme of the pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 17 minutes ago, Hoth said: Dunno, but tail risk isn't often a popular topic of conversation. I imagine folks in Texas weren't discussing their potential risk prior to last year either. TX did it to themselves too. The whole we don't need help from others because of their grid setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 34 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The pacific isn’t our only problem when it comes to the cold this season. Check out our backyard—the Gulf of Maine. Looking and feeling a lot more like Northern Ireland Climo. A northeast fetch spells rain for a chunk of us with SST’s in the mid to upper 40’s. This going to be a tall bar to get over for the SNE folks (me included) in less-than-great setups/patterns. You'll be fine in NH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Why haven't we heard anything about this. https://www.wfsb.com/news/natural-gas-shortage-supply-chain-issues-could-result-in-rolling-blackouts-in-new-england/article_324574c0-5c54-11ec-b193-53802f62a356.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 28 minutes ago, jbenedet said: “Meaningless”. Most live in the coastal plain. Of course this isn’t meaningless for them. Outside of the cp, I think it’s an important factor in a line —extreme southern Maine down to New London CT—ish. If there isn’t prevailing CAD/WAD we take on the in-situ airmass and that’s predominated by the GOM. This affects surface temps at the margin in many critical ways that modeling doesn’t fully capture—hence the extremely tight gradient in New England climo. The snow capitals like Burlington and the Whites—yes I agree that this could be fantastic for the far interior. Burlington is a snow capital? When did that happen? Maybe the snowman should head there instead of Brattleboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 39 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 12z NAM almost shredded the entire thing into oblivion. That 12z HRRR moved south and nicks us now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Burlington is a snow capital? When did that happen? Maybe the snowman should head there instead of Brattleboro. Yeah, calling BTV a “snow capital” is a bit of a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 59 minutes ago, jbenedet said: “Meaningless”. Most live in the coastal plain. Of course this isn’t meaningless for them. Outside of the cp, I think it’s an important factor in a line —extreme southern Maine down to New London CT—ish. If there isn’t prevailing CAD/WAD we take on the in-situ airmass and that’s predominated by the GOM. This affects surface temps at the margin in many critical ways that modeling doesn’t fully capture—hence the extremely tight gradient in New England climo. The snow capitals like Burlington and the Whites—yes I agree that this could be fantastic for the far interior. Again, on the list of factors preventing snow, this is near the bottom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Some beer started early it seems 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Some beer started early it seems 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 water temps will matter less as we move through January. they are dropping and will probably touch 40° in 2-3 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Why haven't we heard anything about this. It has been in the "news". I think it was in a Friday afternoon information dump last week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: This does not blow chunks. Let's have a quick hitter, 8"-12", with Tsnow: February 2017 thundersnow style. We will get hit by something at some point. Like I said not getting at least one moderate event in a season is like not getting a single thunderstorm in spring summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Congrats VA beach. FML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Imagine being a MD snow weenie and having to see this play out. LOL brutal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: You'll be fine in NH. 90% of the winter storms here have been a mixed bag since I moved here summer 2015. I’m not “fine” any year or storm for that matter. This year is starting off the same. I see a bunch of weenies fighting persistence that seems to be more entrenched with each passing year… Interior NNE of course is an exception to this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, jbenedet said: 90% of the winter storms here have been a mixed bag since I moved here summer 2015. I’m not “fine” any year or storm for that matter. This year is starting off the same. I see a bunch of weenies fighting persistence that seems to be more entrenched with each passing year… Interior NNE of course is an exception to this. 90%? You're fine. Dover NH. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Don't see an issue for cstl VA? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 44 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Again, on the list of factors preventing snow, this is near the bottom Everything important happens at the margin, 1 to 2 F in surface temps is huge. For as long as these SST anomalies persist this is hugely critical for the coastal plain; i.e, the most densely populated area of the sub forum. Good talk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Burlington is a snow capital? When did that happen? Maybe the snowman should head there instead of Brattleboro. Burlington MA I think. They get more snow than Jay Peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I agree if the airmass is marginal, but the coast will have issues generally when this happens. You need a decent antecedent airmass. If that happens with a good high to the north, they'll be ok. I had almost 5" of snow on 10/30/20 with SSTs in the 50s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Jan 7 looks great on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Jan 7 looks great on the GFS. Massena NY FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 End of GEFS is interesting. This look is probably a result of a large spread. Wish the ridge was on the west coast instead of just off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jan 7 looks great on the GFS. Lol. The next 2 weeks look like trash for SNE snow weenies. Long rain coats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jan 7 looks great on the GFS. Has to stay weak for us to score (although EURO was pretty robust). Something like Jan 19 2002 would be fitting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 North Carolina going to have more snow than ORH lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Gfs evolution for next Friday is going to be pretty close to accurate… that seems like a likely outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Has to stay weak for us to score (although EURO was pretty robust). Something like Jan 19 2002 would be fitting. It can be strong...it just depends where the shortwave amplifies. On the Euro, it doesn't amplify until further east...there's a bit more confluence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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