WxWatcher007 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not directed at you, but to base anything on model runs beyond 5 days is risky business Heck anything past three days this season has been risky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not directed at you, but to base anything on model runs beyond 5 days is risky business Agreed. At least there’s been way less talk of the EPS weeklies this season…talk about useless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 2 hours ago, stormy said: The seasoned meteorologists say that when predicting rain or snow. When in Drought, leave it out. This dry pattern for rain or snow will break at some point. Until then, speculation about rain or snow is a moot point. .50" of rain is not a break in the pattern unless it is followed by much more. Is anyone smart enough to say when it will break? only a met can answer that, but the trough has been out west (it's been stormier and colder there lately) and we've been lacking a storm track that can tap into the gulf or atlantic. it's just been mostly remnant systems taking too far north of a track for this area. seems like this is a pretty textbook la nina so far with the jet stream a little further north than we want. i can see why people would prefer a +pna in this setup and why we'd also want an atlantic that isn't going to make things dicey along the fall line (rain to snow zones). i've just started reading more into this, but i think we want the mjo to cycle through 7/8 to allow for a more active southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, 87storms said: only a met can answer that, but the trough has been out west (it's been stormier and colder there lately) and we've been lacking a storm track that can tap into the gulf or atlantic. it's just been mostly remnant systems taking too far north of a track for this area. seems like this is a pretty textbook la nina so far with the jet stream a little further north than we want. i can see why people would prefer a +pna in this setup and why we'd also want an atlantic that isn't going to make things dicey along the fall line (rain to snow zones). i've just started reading more into this, but i think we want the mjo to cycle through 7/8 to allow for a more active southern stream. The troughing and anomalous ridging in AK is the biggest culprit right now, which plays favorably into a sturdy Nina ENSO state. To make matters more pronounced, the ridging position and strength has actually been significantly daunting as standard dev of heights over the western half of AK are ~+5-6 sigma with a accompanying temp deviation of +4 sigma within the typical confines of the boundary layer. This allows for a significant downstream trough along the PAC coast with the opposite in terms of height field anomalies. Anytime you see snow and cold in Seattle, it's not a good sign downstream in our area. This provides a solid signature for a budding/resilient SER that will fight tooth and nail any cold prevalence for the Mid Atlantic. Now, if the ridge can relax and PNA can revert to slight neg signature, or neutral preferably, this would allow for cold temps to have an ability to move eastward creating a nice baroclinic zone from the plains to the Mid Atlantic. Waves of cold can carve out the baroclinic ribbon overtime, so that's why the winter isn't completely out of the question, imo. If the base state of the PAC remains undisturbed and we only see minor undulations of the PNA and ridge reflection over AK, then yes, the area is in huge trouble. Even still, a modestly carved baroclinic zone can still yield chances in the prime cold season. Southern stream is likely to be somewhat muted outside a few cases this winter because this is very typical of what happens in successive Nina ENSO's. Don't give up hope, but also don't anticipate some huge rebound this winter unless there's a wild change in the base state of the PAC. 8 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 27 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The troughing and anomalous ridging in AK is the biggest culprit right now, which plays favorably into a sturdy Nina ENSO state. To make matters more pronounced, the ridging position and strength has actually been significantly daunting as standard dev of heights over the western half of AK are ~+5-6 sigma with a accompanying temp deviation of +4 sigma within the typical confines of the boundary layer. This allows for a significant downstream trough along the PAC coast with the opposite in terms of height field anomalies. Anytime you see snow and cold in Seattle, it's not a good sign downstream in our area. This provides a solid signature for a budding/resilient SER that will fight tooth and nail any cold prevalence for the Mid Atlantic. Now, if the ridge can relax and PNA can revert to slight neg signature, or neutral preferably, this would allow for cold temps to have an ability to move eastward creating a nice baroclinic zone from the plains to the Mid Atlantic. Waves of cold can carve out the baroclinic ribbon overtime, so that's why the winter isn't completely out of the question, imo. If the base state of the PAC remains undisturbed and we only see minor undulations of the PNA and ridge reflection over AK, then yes, the area is in huge trouble. Even still, a modestly carved baroclinic zone can still yield chances in the prime cold season. Southern stream is likely to be somewhat muted outside a few cases this winter because this is very typical of what happens in successive Nina ENSO's. Don't give up hope, but also don't anticipate some huge rebound this winter unless there's a wild change in the base state of the PAC. Makes sense. Looks like banking on La Niña to dominate the prime winter is a pretty decent bet, but a few tweaks to the pattern could allow for better chances. At this point, as a weather enthusiast it would be nice to have a storm of any substance to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Gfs cape storm looks worse than ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 5 hours ago, Ji said: Gfs cape storm looks worse than ever Not looking great, but like I said yesterday, a 'good' outcome with this realistically is rain ending as snow with a coating or maybe a bit more, if there is a bit of a trailing wave. GEFS still suggests a period of snow is possible as the cold comes in, while the EPS has the trailing wave further southeast- best chance for the cold to catch the precip for a little snow as depicted is probably eastern VA. Still time for this to degrade into the usual case of cold chasing rain though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 6z GFS looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GFS looks decent. a little adjustment and it would be something…or nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: a little adjustment and it would be something…or nothing Keeping us interested. How will it "trend"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Keeping us interested. How will it "trend"?How do things usually trend for us? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Keeping us interested. How will it "trend"? How do things usually trend for us? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: a little adjustment and it would be something…or nothing Well put (lol). This threat keeps hanging around though. That makes it intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Well put (lol). This threat keeps hanging around though. That makes it intriguing. on 6z as shown we need a 100mile west adjustment and bit more neutral tilt before we run out of time. ICON leaned toward a better look than 0z showed. nothing else to track so why not watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 hours ago, BristowWx said: a little adjustment and it would be something…or nothing That totally sounds like a John Madden comment lol..RIP to him btw 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 An encouraging MJO forecast today. We may possibly see an extended phase 8... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 too bad.. coming out of a -NAO no less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Look at Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Nice storm developing in the gulf in only 9 days or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: An encouraging MJO forecast today. We may possibly see an extended phase 8... Really what shows that?. Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 12z GEFS looks kinda interesting. The mean implies rain ending as snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 This isn’t a bad look- way out there though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 It seems those 384hr storms disappeared about 5 years ago.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, leo2000 said: Really what shows that?. Just wondering. Just going off today's RMM plots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 It might actually cool down for a while. Don't expect it to be cold next January though.. Cold probably comes after this. Or after the one after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Just going off today's RMM plots... I just want that high-amplitude push into 8 that the forecast was showing like 10 days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I just want that high-amplitude push into 8 that the forecast was showing like 10 days ago. Lol...I am to the point where I just want something other than a nina. This hobby gets tiresome in years like this. We'll earn every damn flake we see this year no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 woah what’s that I see? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: woah what’s that I see? a dead STJ 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 maybe watch this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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