Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,132
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Jdhuffmanhws
    Newest Member
    Jdhuffmanhws
    Joined

Overunning Mixed Event 12/18-12/19/21


dryslot
 Share

Recommended Posts

‘Cept, … I wouldn’t consider a flat wave going underneath us with typical frontogen and backing elevated flow signatures/ low securely going south as a SWFE.  

But that’s just trying to apply some consistency to the usage of the term.

I mean it’s happening along a narrow corridor admittedly but it’s still not a primary shooting up at Saint Lawrence and a huge isentropic wall that ends as a weak meso low scooting seaward. 

This is a frontal wave /New Jersey model hybrid… but weak in the latter sense. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • dryslot changed the title to Overunning Mixed Event 12/18-12/19/21
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

‘Cept, … I wouldn’t consider a flat wave going underneath us with typical frontogen and backing elevated flow signatures/ low securely going south as a SWFE.  

But that’s just trying to apply some consistency to the usage of the term.

I mean it’s happening along a narrow corridor admittedly but it’s still not a primary shooting up at Saint Lawrence and a huge isentropic wall that ends as a weak meso low scooting seaward. 

This is a frontal wave /New Jersey model hybrid… but weak in the latter sense. 

The mid level low does go north of us...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Based on what I have seen on the models, I do not believe the storm will be all snow in my area. However I do think we get a couple of inches before the warm layer moves in, and the snow changes to sleet and then freezing rain. The 500 mb pattern has some blocking, but it hasn’t really established itself yet, and there is still a ridge in the east and trough in the west. A warm layer makes sense, but there is a high pressure to the north and the surface is freezing while the upper levels are above for part of the storm. That makes me believe we are getting an ice storm.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Operative word being modest....I'm not sure why anything is in jeopardy over an inch or two of snow...

Speaking for myself.  I’m still on the process of trying to figure out what happened to me the night of 12/4.  I have a 3 hour testing scheduled early Friday morning.   Depending on the results I’ll be less cautious or over cautious.   An inch or 2 of snow is more difficult to drive on sometimes vs higher amounts.   Let’s see what happens and how this event looks Friday.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Speaking for myself.  I’m still on the process of trying to figure out what happened to me the night of 12/4.  I have a 3 hour testing scheduled early Friday morning.   Depending on the results I’ll be less cautious or over cautious.   An inch or 2 of snow is more difficult to drive on sometimes vs higher amounts.   Let’s see what happens and how this event looks Friday.

Oh, gotcha...understood. Obviously do whatever you feel is in your best interest, Jerry. Health comes first.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus....GEM and GFS are robust north of the pike...wow. Both hair colder and just a bit more juice. I do expect N trends, but the longer we can hold it off, the better.

Yeah.....you/Dave/Chris (the Rt 2 corridor) might be able to cash in.  I still view this as a Dendrite/Jeff opportunity.  Hopefully those of us down south can manage something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah may have to go to CH after Christmas haha. Don’t have a good feeling near and south of pike.

Yeah I think pike region is mostly toast in this one. Prob an inch or two on the front but that won’t be enough to survive until Xmas unless it’s basically all sleet. 
 

Gotta hope for a tick colder on the 12z runs, but my guess is the opposite. They will keep nudging warmer...that’s the typical MO for these systems as we get closer. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think pike region is mostly toast in this one. Prob an inch or two on the front but that won’t be enough to survive until Xmas unless it’s basically all sleet. 
 

Gotta hope for a tick colder on the 12z runs, but my guess is the opposite. They will keep nudging warmer...that’s the typical MO for these systems as we get closer. 

6z euro is pretty warm. Too bad the gfs flinched a couple of days ago. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think pike region is mostly toast in this one. Prob an inch or two on the front but that won’t be enough to survive until Xmas unless it’s basically all sleet. 
 

Gotta hope for a tick colder on the 12z runs, but my guess is the opposite. They will keep nudging warmer...that’s the typical MO for these systems as we get closer. 

Mostly all rainer south of 90. Great news . And lost next week . Scooter holding our throats wide open funneling horseshit straight into bellies on nothing to look forward to . Was hoping for at least an all ice event and staying below freezing . Instead mild rains to at least ORH

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...