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OBS-NOWCAST for one or two periods of snow or flurries Sunday morning (11/28/21), most of the NYC subforum, with amounts generally less than 3/4".


wdrag
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A period or two of snow or flurries should move through our NYC subforum Sunday morning, with untreated slippery conditions in some areas, especially NJ/NYS.  Precipitation will tend to melt on pavement over LI where it may change to rain showers toward forenoon.  A large part of any snowfall should melt during the afternoon.  The most likely area to receive spotty 1 inch amounts seems to be ne PA, w NJ and the se NYS hills. 

MPING may be helpful for those trying to know what is hitting the ground.  Also the axis of heaviest (albeit a minor light snowfall) may not be determined until 3AM Sunday as the eastward streaking snow tends to show the most favored lift region. 

IF (and there is still doubt since some models including the 18z GFS, are dryer) this snowfall occurs, I'd consider it the first widespread very light snow of the season. Again IFFF.  This excludes the flurries that occurred Friday into Saturday morning Nov 26-27 (measurable snow did occur over the northern fringe of the NYC subforum Friday). 

Best lift seems to be reserved for Monday morning when the sharper trough passes through, but the RH tends to be shallower and so there may not be much, if any, showery yield.  

Regarding todays (11/27 cycles) RGEM inverted trough mesoscale developments over CT/e LI Monday...unlikely but not out of the question. 

Does CP Measure more than a Trace:? Possibly, if whatever falls doesn't melt before the 7AM observation.

More likely just brooms, than any shovel. 

 

 

 

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  • wdrag changed the title to OBS-NOWCAST for one or two periods of snow or flurries Sunday morning (11/28/21), most of the NYC subforum, with amounts generally less than 3/4".

CP: unlikely to have to measured. BUT, first flakes of the season via ASOS. Looks like snow began there 309AM. 

 

KNYC 281104Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM SCT023 OVC050 01/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SNE00 P0000 T00061028 $ 
KNYC 281051Z AUTO 00000KT 3SM -SN BKN026 OVC060 01/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SNB31 SLP127 P0000 T00061028 $
KNYC 281041Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN028 OVC050 01/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SNB31 P0000 T00111033 $
KNYC 280951Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC050 01/M04 A2993 RMK AO2 SNE06 SLP128 P0000 T00061039 $
KNYC 280851Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM -SN BKN055 OVC075 01/M04 A2993 RMK AO2 SNB09E25B41 SLP130 P0000 60000 T00061039 58007 $

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24 hour reports snow and water equiv through 920AM/28.  Note 11/27 NAM was a little too heavy but the NAM/EC combo did best on sprinting a little snow eastward across the region this morning. The value of the GFS/GGEM being essentially drier in yesterdays (11/27) cycles was to not go overboard and realize that NAM/Combo might have been a little too robust.  Still, from what I can tell from these reports and mPING, you can call this the first widespread light snow event of the 21-22 season. Exceedingly minor  but as some other have termed...MOOD-Decorative. 662124093_ScreenShot2021-11-28at9_23_21AM.thumb.png.6eccb06526f41bd1be201c557951ae1f.png1189034476_ScreenShot2021-11-28at9_24_28AM.thumb.png.15d2a0e99293425c3d610c21c5545147.png

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