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December 2021


MJO812
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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why is it so hot out west? you'd expect a big trough in the east with so much heat out in Colorado....Denver hasn't seen a single flake yet

 

The MJO 6 is building the ridge over the West while the fast Pacific Jet tries to flatten it out. So the trough can’t dig into the Southeast.  We end up with the gradient favoring New England. There is a parade of storms crossing the Northern Tier. This results in warm ups for us ahead of the Great Lakes lows and cool downs behind. 

 

57B81A34-D317-4BFE-816A-004E62631934.thumb.png.d1644db6a5315fab27124e473f70e81c.png


258C724A-EE34-405B-930B-14B353645ADF.thumb.png.4649183474f2016566de3bb58ee73ef9.png

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The MJO 6 is building the ridge over the West while the fast Pacific Jet tries to flatten it out. So the trough can’t dig into the Southeast.  We end up with the gradient favoring New England. There is a parade of storms crossing the Northern Tier. This results in warm ups for us ahead of the Great Lakes lows and cool downs behind. 

 

57B81A34-D317-4BFE-816A-004E62631934.thumb.png.d1644db6a5315fab27124e473f70e81c.png


258C724A-EE34-405B-930B-14B353645ADF.thumb.png.4649183474f2016566de3bb58ee73ef9.png

so we end up with a compromise between two different patterns, because the ridge out west would be really good for us but because of the jet  trying to flatten it out the trough gets displaced northeast of us....I see why Ray was using 2007-08 as an analog lol

 

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep it's flatter. I wouldn't be shocked to see it trend flatter. 

It is going to take absolutely perfect timing to pull off a snowstorm next Monday; +NAO, +AO, -PNA, +EPO, neutral WPO, roaring PAC jet. Not saying it can’t happen but when you depend on really good luck and perfect timing it normally doesn’t work out very well

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It is going to take absolutely perfect timing to pull off a snowstorm next Monday; +NAO, +AO, -PNA, +EPO, neutral WPO, roaring PAC jet. Not saying it can’t happen but when you depend on really good luck and perfect timing it normally doesn’t work out very well

The interior always have the best shot. It is a long shot for our area but timing is key like you said.

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12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

so we end up with a compromise between two different patterns, because the ridge out west would be really good for us but because of the jet  trying to flatten it out the trough gets displaced northeast of us

 

It’s exactly the type of fast Pacific Jet pattern across the US that we get this time of year with no blocking and a strong -PDO.

48090BD5-BB91-47DE-8F38-FE2AF641DF85.png.5838c88de3f39c4889d20f070ad5297f.png

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s exactly the type of fast Pacific Jet pattern across the US that we get this time of year with no blocking and a strong -PDO.

48090BD5-BB91-47DE-8F38-FE2AF641DF85.png.5838c88de3f39c4889d20f070ad5297f.png

Good morning!

Question - perhaps I am not remembering correctly, however it seems as though almost all La Ninas have snowy Marches. 

Now, I know the shorter wavelengths in March mitigate the background state (enso), however I feel like El nino Marches teams to be warm and snowless compared to La Ninas.

Is there a particular reason for the above? 

Thanks.

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3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Good morning!

Question - perhaps I am not remembering correctly, however it seems as though almost all La Ninas have snowy Marches. 

Now, I know the shorter wavelengths in March mitigate the background state (enso), however I feel like El nino Marches teams to be warm and snowless compared to La Ninas.

Is there a particular reason for the above? 

Thanks.

Because normally the Niña stacks warm water in the mjo cold phases for March. P3-4-5 

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39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The interior always have the best shot. It is a long shot for our area but timing is key like you said.

If you want to dig around in the models the 06z Ensemble run has 3 members that dig the short wave that is progged to pass across northern NE this weekend to a much greater degree than the mean.

 image.png.6f06b26f3bf29b831f40e4fc1a8f9d5a.png

 

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We need some storms-been a dry pattern with just a series of cold fronts with some light rains ahead of their passage.

You won't get much with fast Pacific jet pattern. You don't even get the big inland cutters due to how fast the flow is. 

There's a good cold source to our north though so we end up on the cooler side of things but it'll never get very cold due to state of pattern. 

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