Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,116
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SCseminole
    Newest Member
    SCseminole
    Joined

December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

That extended layout in the oper. Euro is maddening. 

You have a positive anomaly in the H500 at 30 N, and a deep negative anomaly near 70 N ... so you have huge gradient spanning everywhere.

The resting wind velocity is probably buck 10 from S of Alaska to ...somewhere out in the N Atl.  

S/W's typically tote wind maxes along with them ...  less than that velocity.   That's basically suppression madness -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess that's about the right timing ...  Now that the front-side of winters book-end blocking is about behind us and the deeper heights of winter press S into the HC remnants ... here comes the velocity soaking to wreck the days -

Warned this would happen ... 5 years ago, and have every autumn since.   

I'm being snarky a little .. but it will be interesting to see if this goes ahead and damps the cool enso signal as efficiently as it belated the the warm ones. It's hard to identify either in the base flow, when the base flow is gradient saturated - it overwhelms the physics of standard R-wave distribution.   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s definitely been some volatility. Almost like when the guidance sneaks in a s/w into Anchorage area it goes nuts while other runs don’t do that.

Yeah I’m not sure I remember so much volatility in the D9-12 range before on the EPS when it comes to larger scale features like the EPO/WPO...like you said, one run tries to form a black hole over AK from a fish farting in the Aleutians and then next run we see a nice ridge there or at least nothing resembling a vortex. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m not sure I remember so much volatility in the D9-12 range before on the EPS when it comes to larger scale features like the EPO/WPO...like you said, one run tries to form a black hole over AK from a fish farting in the Aleutians and then next run we see a nice ridge there or at least nothing resembling a vortex. 

Did we have sort of crappy pattern with a couple of light SWFE prior to 12/13/07? I remember a couple of small events before things really settled in. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m not sure I remember so much volatility in the D9-12 range before on the EPS when it comes to larger scale features like the EPO/WPO...like you said, one run tries to form a black hole over AK from a fish farting in the Aleutians and then next run we see a nice ridge there or at least nothing resembling a vortex. 

Fish farts.  In the Aleutians.

After a pause, I decided I quite like that one and decided to not lurk today like usual.  

This place is better than television.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Looks good. 18z gfs too

Leave it to this winner to post in the Winter thread dor Warm weather. Lol

In all seriousness, how in the world can we even say what will happen? The models keep waffling back and forth. I dor one am not banking on one outcome over another. Time will tell. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Leave it to this winner to post in the Winter thread dor Warm weather. Lol

In all seriousness, how in the world can we even say what will happen? The models keep waffling back and forth. I dor one am not banking on one outcome over another. Time will tell. 

I don't see a winter or winter wx thread.  I see a December thread

Here is a demolition cutter 12/6 on the 0z gfs

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In order to get anything above meh for the winter, we need Atlantic help.    Transient requires timing which most of the time doesn’t quite work out.  
 

Took my daughter and her bf to see Dylan tonight-Rough and Rowdy Ways Tour.   Surprised at how good he sounded at age 80.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...