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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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13 minutes ago, madwx said:

it's strange because I can recall numerous colder time periods here since Feb 2015, late January 2019 particularly comes to mind

The extreme stuff was in and out though in Jan 2019.  The tweet is referencing a 10 day period (well, technically 11 days) so would have to compare over that timeframe.

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16 minutes ago, madwx said:

it's strange because I can recall numerous colder time periods here since Feb 2015, late January 2019 particularly comes to mind

Lost two Japanese maples to that late January cold snap

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The extreme stuff was in and out though in Jan 2019.  The tweet is referencing a 10 day period (well, technically 11 days) so would have to compare over that timeframe.

taking a look at the raw surface data, Jan 2019 definitely outshines any 10 day period in Feb 2015, at least in southern Wisconsin

last 10 days of 2019.png

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38 minutes ago, madwx said:

taking a look at the raw surface data, Jan 2019 definitely outshines any 10 day period in Feb 2015, at least in southern Wisconsin

last 10 days of 2019.png

I think it also depends if you're comparing actual temps or anomalies.  If you compare the anomalies from that last ~10 days of Jan 2019 to the last 10 days of Feb 2015 at MSN, it's a closer contest vs comparing the actual temps.  Bunch of days more than 20 degrees below average both times.  I would give the edge to 2019 though, because it had a couple obnoxious days there at the end of the month with temps more than 30 degrees below average. 

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12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Sure, and let's do it with nearly bare ground while we're at it.

Have a few zone 5 trees I kind of wanted to see if they could take a hard winter.  Guess this will be a good test for them lol.  Map says we're in zone 5A, but due to how we can really bottom out here in the RR valley I think it's more like zone 4B here.

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51 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Have a few zone 5 trees I kind of wanted to see if they could take a hard winter.  Guess this will be a good test for them lol.  Map says we're in zone 5A, but due to how we can really bottom out here in the RR valley I think it's more like zone 4B here.

How's the redwood doing

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23 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Pretty good so far, didn't grow much this past warm season which is to be expected.  Should do better this year, and really take off next year.  It's a zone 4 (minimum) tree so it should be okay even with the cold we can get here.  :D

Glad to hear it's doing okay ^_^ How do they fare with drought? 

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After tomorrow and Saturday's event (which I really hope finally gives the Ohio peeps the big snow they deserve) the next system looks like a clipper next Tues/Weds.  Looks like that one skirts through the lakes and leaves areas to the south high and dry.

The Euro looks like it wants to blow up something pretty decent waaaay off around the day 10 time frame (lol).  This would be on the leading edge of the major arctic push that some have already talked about here.  

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20 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Lost two Japanese maples to that late January cold snap

I lost all of my rhododendrons and a lot of other plants rated for zone 4 in that cold snap, and I'm in zone 5b. Now I welcome these sudden cold snaps, since they are good for beating down invasive insect populations like Japanese beetles and emerald ash borer. Plus, what plants I had survive that snap should be able to tolerate future extreme cold here.

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46 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I mean if this continues drought becomes a concern especially in southeastern Wisconsin 

They never got completely out of last year's drought, so yeah.  Not necessarily an immediate problem but if the next few months are dry, then it sets up in a potentially bad way.  

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Impressive. Do you foresee any pattern changes in the extended period? 
We have just transitioned into yet another pattern, one in which favors an Eastern US trough and the PV meandering around and just northeast of the Hudson. As many have alluded to in other threads, it's a fairly zzz looking pattern for most of the sub-forum if you're looking for something great, though there will be several shots of colder temps. Should have the opportunity for some clippers to ride through the region, but really any hope for anything really interesting will be tied to whether or not we can get a stronger clipper (such as what is currently modeled for early next week). It appears this pattern is here to stay through very late month.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3025600.thumb.png.8e50367675949c7ba9a920f63c31bc61.png
Beyond that, there are some signs that we could transition into yet another pattern sometime around the flip into February. Current look of that pattern would be one in which is more active once again. ...But ENS have been horrid beyond about a week to week and a half out this season, so I wouldn't jump on anything being shown yet.
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44 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

We have just transitioned into yet another pattern, one in which favors an Eastern US trough and the PV meandering around and just northeast of the Hudson. As many have alluded to in other threads, it's a fairly zzz looking pattern for most of the sub-forum if you're looking for something great. Should have the opportunity for some clippers to ride through the region, but really any hope for anything really interesting will be tied to whether or not we can get a stronger clipper (such as what is currently modeled for early next week). It appears this pattern is here to stay through very late month.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3025600.thumb.png.8e50367675949c7ba9a920f63c31bc61.png

Beyond that, there are some signs that we could transition into yet another pattern sometime around the flip into February. Current look of that pattern would be one in which is more active once again. ...But ENS have been horrid beyond about a week to week and a half out this season, so I wouldn't jump on anything being shown yet.

This cold will freeze the lakes up pretty fast. Ideally a few clippers spread snow to everyone.

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8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

We have just transitioned into yet another pattern, one in which favors an Eastern US trough and the PV meandering around and just northeast of the Hudson. As many have alluded to in other threads, it's a fairly zzz looking pattern for most of the sub-forum if you're looking for something great. Should have the opportunity for some clippers to ride through the region, but really any hope for anything really interesting will be tied to whether or not we can get a stronger clipper (such as what is currently modeled for early next week). It appears this pattern is here to stay through very late month.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3025600.thumb.png.8e50367675949c7ba9a920f63c31bc61.png

Beyond that, there are some signs that we could transition into yet another pattern sometime around the flip into February. Current look of that pattern would be one in which is more active once again. ...But ENS have been horrid beyond about a week to week and a half out this season, so I wouldn't jump on anything being shown yet.

hope springs eternal. Thanks, for that.

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to go along with storm there is this from LOT today:

"A GENERALLY ACTIVE AND CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS  
FORECAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THANKS IN LARGE  
PART TO AN ESTABLISHED EASTERN NORTH AMERICA UPPER TROUGH WITH   
SHORT WAVES GYRATING AROUND THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR HUDSON BAY.   
ONE SUCH WAVE AND COLD REINFORCEMENT IS PREDICTED SATURDAY   
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AND THEN RECENT GLOBAL GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE   
INDICATED ONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, THAT'S SORT OF A PACIFIC/  
CLIPPER HYBRID. EACH OF THESE WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW,   

MAYBE MORE SO THE LATTER OF THE TWO, AS WELL AS LIKELIHOOD OF   
SENDING TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AGAIN. HOWEVER, NOT SURPRISINGLY   
CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK AND DETAILS OF SUCH FEATURES THIS MANY   
DAYS OUT IN THIS PATTERN IS LOW. PLUS, ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF SNOW   
PLACEMENT AND TIMING REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR 5-6 DAYS OUT.   
THIS IS NAMELY WHY THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) POPS USED IN  
OUR FORECAST FOR THE SATURDAY-MONDAY PERIOD ARE STILL ON THE   
LOWER END."

grasping at straws people.

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^ Yeah...as much as I truly respect LOT and our NWS forecasters, this winter's discussions from them seem to be hyper-focused on the tiniest of wintry weather threats...as if Chicagoland residents live in Atlanta and don't know how to handle winter.

"Oh noze, we *may* get up to 1-2" of snow over the next 7 days, and temps may be below freezing for part of this time...we must sound the alarms!!!".

More optimistically...it could just be that LOT is so bored with the wx here (and who can argue with that) - so, might as well elaborate on the most minor threats in AFDs because there's nothing else to talk about. 

I just got back from snowmobiling in northern WI this weekend - people there are legitimately pissed that the weather is so mild and tame...even though it was 20F with 8" of snow on the ground.  It's like two different planets.

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