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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Fairly useless to be looking at OP guidance at this point, given how significantly in flux the pattern shift is at this time.

Even ENS guidance has been fairly useless so far.


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While it's always common for the op guidance to shift wildly from run to run, I have noticed lately how how ridiculously different the ensemble means are from run to run in the extended. 

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While it's always common for the op guidance to shift wildly from run to run, I have noticed lately how how ridiculously different the ensemble means are from run to run in the extended. 

ENS have not been great this winter in the medium to long range. Obviously in the long range even ENS will have spread and change, but it has been fairly significant at points this winter.


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ENS have not been great this winter in the medium to long range. Obviously in the long range even ENS will have spread and change, but it has been fairly significant at points this winter.


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The EPS has been more unstable lately than I'm used to seeing it. GEFS has been more stable lately, but that doesn't mean it'll be right either. [mention=14]Hoosier[/mention] are we allowed to post the WxBell teleconnection charts on here?

Large divergence of the EPS and GEFS becomes apparent by about 1/30-1/31. Prior to that they both show EPO popping back to positive around 1/27. This is only temporary on the GEFS as it goes back negative on the 31st and stays that way through the end of the run, while the EPS never gets back to a -EPO (though it's not strongly positive). PNA handling also quite different, with GEFS going -PNA by the 30th and then staying deeply negative, while EPS has only a temporary -PNA until 2/4 and then is neutral to slightly positive thereafter.

The active period next week with deep southwest trough and downstream ridge amplification is pretty high confidence, though the details will be low confidence for a few more days. Beyond that, it'll probably be at least a few days until we see a decided jump toward one of the main ensemble suites or a relative compromise.

For our purposes, would prefer the recent GEFS depictions later in the run to the EPS. 12z EPS runs have for whatever reason had a worse look than the 00z runs, though GEFS depiction still more favorable regardless with -EPO/-PNA/-WPO.


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10 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Good. If there's an SSW now it'll be BN through mid-May.

Don't need a SSW to have a cold spring.  It's really a winter only phenomenon.  The stratosphere is always warming after March because the sun is out again over the north pole.  SST patterns are way more important by then.

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18 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Don't need a SSW to have a cold spring.  It's really a winter only phenomenon.  The stratosphere is always warming after March because the sun is out again over the north pole.  SST patterns are way more important by then.

Oh, I know it's far from the only possible cause, just one that has some staying power. I remember the BN conditions lingering in the Lakes well into May 2014 were being attributed to the SSWE that occurred early in the year and led to the deep cold Jan/Feb.

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7 hours ago, Frog Town said:

AT least on the ensembles it's a slight warm up for the middle of next week.  Just hope the timing can be so that a big portion of our sub can cash and with the moisture return.  

It's more than a slight warm up. :(  Gulf is wide open.  People who don't already have some snowpack don't care, but living where I do I'm more of a snowpack weenie, so thaws are upsetting.  Maybe it will be ice.  I'd rather not do that actually.  

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2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Oh, I know it's far from the only possible cause, just one that has some staying power. I remember the BN conditions lingering in the Lakes well into May 2014 were being attributed to the SSWE that occurred early in the year and led to the deep cold Jan/Feb.

2014 was nothing like this year though.  That cold was accompanied by frequent snow.  It wasn't this CAD garbage.  It will take a ton of catching up to get the snowpack anywhere close.  Would need several GHD style blizzards.

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23 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yep.

The weird thing about the '13/'14 winter here was there was only one double digit event in a 24 hour period.  There was a lake-enhanced clipper that dumped 11" in a 24 hour period.  The rest was all 2-5" per day for several days in a row style events, due to good synoptic+lake effect combos.  The thing is it started in December and lasted into March.  There were a few brief rainy thaws, but when it was cold it was almost always snowing.  Starting in early February with little to zero snow pack it will take several blizzards to even get close.

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euro sees what im seeing

quad cities

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE   
MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE UNDERGOING A   
CHANGE WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. DURING A PATTERN   
CHANGE MODEL PREDICTABILITY DROPS AND CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN IS   
INCONSISTENT.  

  
AS A RESULT THE GLOBAL MODELS NOT ONLY DIFFER ON TIMING/TRACK OF   
THIS SYSTEM BUT THEY ALSO DIFFER ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL   
DEVELOP/EVOLVE.  
  
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE   
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE   
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

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snku_acc.png

Well this is the weenie run of the century for Wisconsin. I mean nothing much, just over 2 feet of snow over a good quarter of the state. Oh and breaking a ton of records for snowfall and snow depth. Good thing this is Hr 252 and totally has a shot of verifying as a 2-4" over Detroit.  Man I couldn't even imagine a storm like that.

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9 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

snku_acc.png

Well this is the weenie run of the century for Wisconsin. I mean nothing much, just over 2 feet of snow over a good quarter of the state. Oh and breaking a ton of records for snowfall and snow depth. Good thing this is Hr 252 and totally has a shot of verifying as a 2-4" over Detroit.  Man I couldn't even imagine a storm like that.

yeah only 4" IMBY...as you say...easy toss.

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1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said:

snku_acc.png

Well this is the weenie run of the century for Wisconsin. I mean nothing much, just over 2 feet of snow over a good quarter of the state. Oh and breaking a ton of records for snowfall and snow depth. Good thing this is Hr 252 and totally has a shot of verifying as a 2-4" over Detroit.  Man I couldn't even imagine a storm like that.

Well, combine that with that CMC run and there is somewhat of a signal for something big running SW-NE across the sub in that timeframe. How big and who jackpots all TBD of course.

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