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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Final snowfall totals of 3.3” ORD and 7.2” MDW.

That puts ORD a little above 15" for the season.

I did that work (looking into sub 15" heading into Feb) a few days ago for nothing.  :arrowhead:  Who knew there would be a lake effect bailout of this magnitude.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

For those of us that are missing the storm this week unfortunately it looks like crickets around here through about Feb 10th.  Hopefully the 2nd half of Feb brings something meaningful.

Afraid we might be stuck in a cold a dry pattern for 10-14 days.   After that at least temps should start responding more to increased daylight

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

For those of us that are missing the storm this week unfortunately it looks like crickets around here through about Feb 10th.  Hopefully the 2nd half of Feb brings something meaningful.

Yeah not holding my breath at this point. If I remember December was better for you than here. Winterless Decembers are really becoming tiresome.

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not sure why, but I'm optimistic on the late week clipper. Late season clippers can really get surprisingly juiced if your on the right side.

LOT:

 THIS   
CLIPPER IS ONE TO WATCH AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A SWATH   
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHETHER OR NOT THAT'S   
INTO OUR FORECAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN

QC: 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNS OF A STRONGER CLIPPER WITH PACIFIC   
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN   
SUPPORT OF THIS FEATURE AND ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A TRACK   
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES

Milwaukee:

  
THE SECOND, AND MUCH STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS THE   
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND WILL BRING THE   
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

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17 minutes ago, Baum said:

not sure why, but I'm optimistic on the late week clipper. Late season clippers can really get surprisingly juiced if your on the right side.

LOT:

 THIS   
CLIPPER IS ONE TO WATCH AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A SWATH   
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHETHER OR NOT THAT'S   
INTO OUR FORECAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN

QC: 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNS OF A STRONGER CLIPPER WITH PACIFIC   
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN   
SUPPORT OF THIS FEATURE AND ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A TRACK   
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES

Milwaukee:

  
THE SECOND, AND MUCH STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS THE   
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND WILL BRING THE   
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

Agree, need to see it keep digging south. I don’t love being south of SLP on these 

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3 hours ago, mimillman said:

Agree, need to see it keep digging south. I don’t love being south of SLP on these 

It looks like more of a lake-enhanced event here, but the air aloft is not very cold due to the PV being well north.  Good clippers this late in the season around here need to have much steeper lapse rates.  The GFS has a better front-end thump a couple days later, but ECMWF has nothing as of now. :(

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As mentioned in the February thread, the pattern we are now is fairly zzz overall. Ridging around the West Coast and PV location between Greenland and the Hudson during this stretch. Mostly a duster clipper pattern for most, though maybe a bit more at times (See late week clipper), though more MN/WI/MI favored then. A to BA temperature wise for most as well.

Around or just after Valentines Day is the time to watch for our next significant pattern shift. It's looking increasingly likely that we will shift into a +AO/+NAO/-PNA pattern, with still some question on the EPO (+ or neutral seems most likely). Also it looks like the PV will still be persistent just north of the Hudson up in Canada. That pattern would be favorable for a shift back to an active pattern, with quality storm potential (Rain & snow).

Not surprisingly some differences on how the EPS and GEFS are handling the pattern. The EPS are further west with the mean trough axis, which would set up for potential for more mild temp pushes and rainer potential as well. The GEFS are further east with the mean trough axis, and would favor a cooler scenario temp wise with more snow chances for more as well. We'll have to see if there's a trend towards either solution this week,

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4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

As mentioned in the February thread, the pattern we are now is fairly zzz overall. Ridging around the West Coast and PV location between Greenland and the Hudson during this stretch. Mostly a duster clipper pattern for most, though maybe a bit more at times (See late week clipper), though more MN/WI/MI favored then. A to BA temperature wise for most as well.

Around or just after Valentines Day is the time to watch for our next significant pattern shift. It's looking increasingly likely that we will shift into a +AO/+NAO/-PNA pattern, with still some question on the EPO (+ or neutral seems most likely). Also it looks like the PV will still be persistent just north of the Hudson up in Canada. That pattern would be favorable for a shift back to an active pattern, with quality storm potential (Rain & snow).

Not surprisingly some differences on how the EPS and GEFS are handling the pattern. The EPS are further west with the mean trough axis, which would set up for potential for more mild temp pushes and rainer potential as well. The GEFS are further east with the mean trough axis, and would favor a cooler scenario temp wise with more snow chances for more as well. We'll have to see if there's a trend towards either solution this week,

Would it be fair to characterize this entire winter as having about 2 weeks of a favorable pattern for quality storm potential up to this point? Very end of December/New Years and the late January early February period. Most of January in dry NW flow and December torchy.

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1 hour ago, Spartman said:

We may very well be returning back to a milder pattern towards the final week of this month. 

 

so Cohen thinks it's going to get milder as we get towards March. I believe his last call you posted was that it would get colder in January. got to give his props, he was right on that January call. 

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26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Pattern is a gamble if it flexes too much.  But you would probably want to roll the dice considering how things have gone so far.

At the very least we could use the precip even if it is rain

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36 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I know, right? But my point was, the tweet referenced the GFS, so it seems to be flipping from run to run, which is not exactly unexpected at the ranges we're talking about.

yeah the tweet mentioned the GFS ensembles which don't show major cold at the end of the mean.   Would say we will get a couple more cold shots(this weekend and mid/late next week) before we switch fully to the new pattern

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