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OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.


wdrag
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10 minutes ago, wdrag said:

979MB low or lower passing just to the s of Nantucket now.  Outages continue coming up in RI/MA and soon I think we'll see some increases e CT and LI.

Some very impressive gusts on the cape sustained at 60 gusting to 75. 
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chtm3

also 33 foot wave heights just NE of Boston, there is going to be damage from this in coastal eastern NE. 
 

wind field seems tight, almost tropical like. And I think a big reason this has underperformed in our area 

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Here are 48 hour precipitation totals.  Widespread 4"+ totals across SE NY.  Heaviest amounts in NYC were in lower Manhattan and the Bronx with 4.75-5.5".

Looks like the multisensor precip. estimate (which combines radar with sfc. obs) is underestimating precip. by ~15-20% based on mesonet obs.

Numerous Weather Underground stations confirm what is shown on the multisensor precip. estimate - highest amounts were in the ne three-quarters of Suffolk County with widespread 5"+, locally 7-8.5" in the area around Stony Brook, Setauket, Centereach and St. James.   A small area of SW CT near Westport and Fairfield also saw 6-7" totals, but these were quite localized and mainly near immediate shore.  Very impressive mesoscale banding out there!    Will be interested to see CoCoRAHS totals later.  

Thank G-d these rains fell on dry soil and rainfall rates were generally 1" per hour or less in the areas where heaviest totals fell... thus avoiding significant flooding in LI, S. CT and NYC.  N/C. NJ and scattered areas in the lower Hudson Valley were a different story.


 

Stony Brook, NY -  8.75 inch rainfall Oct 27 9Z.png

St. James, NY -  8 inch rainfall Oct 27 9Z.png

Centereach, NY -  8 inch rainfall Oct 27 9Z.png

Precip estimate 2 days - Oct 27 8Z -  MRMS Multisensor.png

NYC precip 2 days - Oct 27 9Z - NY Mesonet.png

SE NY precip 2 days - Oct 27 9Z - NY Mesonet.png

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

979MB low or lower passing just to the s of Nantucket now.  Outages continue coming up in RI/MA and soon I think we'll see some increases e CT and LI.

An update on the very impressive winds in SE New England.  These wind reports are comparable to some seen on the Cape in the Dec 24-25, 1995 nor'easter, with the 80+ mph reports also more widespread than the Oct 29-30, 2017 "Bomb Cyclone" (the storm that may have made that term viral haha).
 

 

 

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You can see how the shallow warm core more subtropical structure allowed the strongest winds to remain closer to the center than we typically see with the average nor’easter.


Isobars not packed tightly  away from the immediate center.

 

FA4012D7-1A2A-495A-B313-0C01FDEFDE43.gif.531208cb08d574af3ca6388d7b45c189.gif

 

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Sampling of max wind gusts past 3 hours at NWS/FAA sites... ending 1245Z.  Note some places have 50 kt gusts and also lesser 40 knot. Does not include Buoys/weatherflow marine sites.

50kt +

KACK: Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA, United States [58kt, 30m/s]

KBID: Block Island, Block Island State Airport, RI, United States [55kt, 28m/s]

KBOS: Boston, Logan Intl Arpt, MA, United States [51kt, 26m/s]

KC99: UNKNOWN, [51kt, 26m/s]

KCTB: Cut Bank, Cut Bank Municipal Airport, MT, United States [51kt, 26m/s]

KFMH: Otis ANG Base, MA, United States [58kt, 30m/s]

KGHG: Marshfield, MA, United States [52kt, 27m/s]

KHYA: Hyannis, MA, United States [53kt, 27m/s]

KMLC: McAlester, McAlester Regional Airport, OK, United States [55kt, 28m/s]

KPVD: Providence, RI, United States [53kt, 27m/s]

KUUU: Newport, Newport State Airport, RI, United States [54kt, 28m/s]

 

63 stations reporting wind gusts 40-49kt

CWBV: Beaven Island, N. S., Canada [46kt, 24m/s]

CWER: Ile D'Orleans, Canada [46kt, 24m/s]

CWJU: Langara, B. C., Canada [40kt, 21m/s]

CWSA: Sable Island, N. S., Canada [42kt, 22m/s]

CWVU: Brier Island, N. S., Canada [43kt, 22m/s]

CWZV: Cape Saint James, BC, Canada [49kt, 25m/s]

EHDV: D15-FA-1 Oil Platform, Netherlands [44kt, 23m/s]

ENEV: Evenes, Norway [41kt, 21m/s]

ENHE: Heidrun, Norway [42kt, 22m/s]

FAPE: Port Elizabeth, South Africa [41kt, 21m/s]

K1AM: Alpha (raynesford), MT, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

K3K3: Syracuse, KS, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

K7BM: Cottonwood Pass, CO, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KAUS: Austin, Austin-Bergstrom Intl Arpt, TX, United States [46kt, 24m/s]

KBAZ: New Braunfels, TX, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KBID: Block Island, Block Island State Airport, RI, United States [49kt, 25m/s]

KBMQ: Burnet, Burnet Municipal Craddock Field, TX, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KBOS: Boston, Logan Intl Arpt, MA, United States [49kt, 25m/s]

KBVY: Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KC99: UNKNOWN, [48kt, 25m/s]

KCAO: Clayton, Clayton Municipal Airpark, NM, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KCCU: Copper Mountain, Red Cliff Pass, CO, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KCQC: Clines Corners, NM, United States [49kt, 25m/s]

KCQX: Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA, United States [48kt, 25m/s]

KCTB: Cut Bank, Cut Bank Municipal Airport, MT, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KDFW: Dallas / Fort Worth, TX, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KDHT: Dalhart, Dalhart Municipal Airport, TX, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KEWB: New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KGCK: Garden City, Garden City Regional Airport, KS, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KGDP: Guadalupe Mtns. Natl Park, TX, United States [48kt, 25m/s]

KGHG: Marshfield, MA, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KGON: Groton/New London, CT, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KGRK: Fort Hood / Gray U. S. Army Airfield, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KHVN: New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KHYA: Hyannis, MA, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KITR: Burlington, Carson County Airport, CO, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KLAA: Lamar, Lamar Municipal Airport, CO, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KMCK: McCook, McCook Municipal Airport, NE, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KMHT: Manchester, Manchester Airport, NH, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KMIC: Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KMTP: Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

KOQU: N. Kingston / Quonset, RI, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KOWD: Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KOXC: Oxford, CT, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KPVD: Providence, RI, United States [49kt, 25m/s]

KRKD: Rockland / Knox, ME, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KRWV: Caldwell, TX, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KRYW: Lago Vista-Allen, TX, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KSAT: San Antonio, TX, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KSFZ: Pawtucket, RI, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KSPD: Springfield, Comanche National Grassland, CO, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KSRR: Ruidoso Regional, NM, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KTAN: Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KTQK: Scott City, KS, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KUUU: Newport, Newport State Airport, RI, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KWST: Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

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1 hour ago, jconsor said:

An update on the very impressive winds in SE New England.  These wind reports are comparable to some seen on the Cape in the Dec 24-25, 1995 nor'easter, with the 80+ mph reports also more widespread than the Oct 29-30, 2017 "Bomb Cyclone" (the storm that may have made that term viral haha).
 

 

 

Excellent post... will await the finals on wind later this morning tho I may not be posting between 1035AM and 430PM.

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4.37 inches in White Plains, getting some wind gusts now but the strongest was near 11am yday where out of no where it was blowing 40-50 mph, only lasted a few mins on the tail end of the rain band. Temps also rose a few degrees with that wind and then dropped back down.

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