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October Discobs 2021


George BM
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  • WxUSAF pinned this topic
9 minutes ago, yoda said:

Monday to Friday of next week looks terrible... rainy all week 

Shower chances but not a washout, and also location dependent. Outside of a chance of thundershowers late Monday, doesn't look like much more than periods of light rain/drizzle here and there for most until maybe later in the week.

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23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Shower chances but not a washout, and also location dependent. Outside of a chance of thundershowers late Monday, doesn't look like much more than periods of light rain/drizzle here and there for most until maybe later in the week.

LWX has 60 to 70 POPS each day... plus from LWX AFD 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main story in the extended will be potential for heavy rainfall
sometime mid to late week. The latest 12Z deterministic guidance
tends to support earlier 00/06Z ensemble trends of above
normal moisture/precipitable water across the Mid-Atlantic. On
Tuesday...a stalled frontal boundary across central Virginia into
the Delmarva will keep a moist easterly flow into the area.
Periods of rain especially east of the Blue Ridge are
expected Tuesday into Wednesday. As upper low pressure drifts over
the lower/middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday and Thursday, moisture
continue to stream over the region...as surface high pressure over
New England causes decent lower level moisture confluence into our
region. This could lead to decent rainfall amounts.

 

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12 hours ago, yoda said:

LWX has 60 to 70 POPS each day... plus from LWX AFD 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main story in the extended will be potential for heavy rainfall
sometime mid to late week. The latest 12Z deterministic guidance
tends to support earlier 00/06Z ensemble trends of above
normal moisture/precipitable water across the Mid-Atlantic. On
Tuesday...a stalled frontal boundary across central Virginia into
the Delmarva will keep a moist easterly flow into the area.
Periods of rain especially east of the Blue Ridge are
expected Tuesday into Wednesday. As upper low pressure drifts over
the lower/middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday and Thursday, moisture
continue to stream over the region...as surface high pressure over
New England causes decent lower level moisture confluence into our
region. This could lead to decent rainfall amounts.

 

Like I said, location dependent. For central and esp eastern areas, looks like late week into next weekend will be the time period for chances of more significant rain. Different story for places to the west/sw, as they will be closer to the mid south upper low as it opens and moves NE.

WPC QPF through day 5:

Day 10 image not available

 

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5 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Yeah, if it actually felt like fall. It looks warm and humid to go with the damn conditions. 

Yeah 75-80 with lows in the 60s is not exactly ideal Fall weather. Big picture looks like above normal going forward. As long as we can avoid 85-90 I guess we should be content lol.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah 75-80 with lows in the 60s is not exactly ideal Fall weather. Big picture looks like above normal going forward. As long as we can avoid 85-90 I guess we should be content lol.

Another October cementing it's reputation as a rapidly warming month.  No denying the trend.  Some thought it would turn out cooler than normal, that's not going to happen. And yes, I am saying that knowing it's only the 3 rd of the month.  

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55 minutes ago, frd said:

Another October cementing it's reputation as a rapidly warming month.  No denying the trend.  Some thought it would turn out cooler than normal, that's not going to happen. And yes, I am saying that knowing it's only the 3 rd of the month.  

Above average October is a pretty easy call given the look all the global ensembles are advertising. The CFS weeklies continue it for weeks 3 and 4, although the higher h5 heights begin to weaken over the east and build further west towards the end of the month. Maybe we get a cool start to November.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Above average October is a pretty easy call given the look all the global ensembles are advertising. The CFS weeklies continue it for weeks 3 and 4, although the higher h5 heights begin to weaken over the east and build further west towards the end of the month. Maybe we get a cool start to November.

06z GFS was atrocious past Day 10

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Above average October is a pretty easy call given the look all the global ensembles are advertising. The CFS weeklies continue it for weeks 3 and 4, although the higher h5 heights begin to weaken over the east and build further west towards the end of the month. Maybe we get a cool start to November.

Yes,  but some here say don't try to forecast past day 10.   Because the forecast will be wrong.  Hard to deny October warmth. ( and October humidity as well )     

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