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October 2021


Stormlover74
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On 9/17/2021 at 12:24 PM, bluewave said:

It’s always interesting to see how the EPS weeklies compare with the SEAS5 seasonal forecast. The Euro seasonal was picking up on the October blocking potential from the forecast issued back in July. South based blocks can still have above normal temperatures in the Northeast like we saw last winter. So the latitude of the block is important.

Early July forecast for October

seems like it did a good job
Composite Plot

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18 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

it's 66 outside, my thermostat is about 72, and i feel pretty cool.  global warming has broken my biological thermometer

Good evening Will. My biological thermometer hasn’t gone up in quite a awhile, global warming notwithstanding. As always …… 

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Some additional showers are likely, especially before midnight. Behind the frontal passage responsible for the showers and earlier thunderstorms, readings will return to near normal levels tomorrow and Monday. Warmer air will likely return near the middle of next week.

Newark reached 70° for the 170th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 2007 for the 4th most days on record. Newark also reached 80° for the 115th time this year. That is the 2nd highest number of such days.

At 11:59 pm yesterday, Bismarck saw the temperature dip to 32° under clear skies and a calm wind. That is the latest first freeze on record for Bismarck. The old record was October 14, 2008.

The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +28.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today.

On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.416 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.686 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal).

 

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some additional showers are likely, especially before midnight. Behind the frontal passage responsible for the showers and earlier thunderstorms, readings will return to near normal levels tomorrow and Monday. Warmer air will likely return near the middle of next week.

Newark reached 70° for the 170th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 2007 for the 4th most days on record. Newark also reached 80° for the 115th time this year. That is the 2nd highest number of such days.

At 11:59 pm yesterday, Bismarck saw the temperature dip to 32° under clear skies and a calm wind. That is the latest first freeze on record for Bismarck. The old record was October 14, 2008.

The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +28.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today.

On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.416 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.686 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal).

 

How close to the record for 70 and 80 degree days for Newark, Don?

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(51/65), or Normal.

Month to date is  65.8[+5.2].        Could be  62.7[+3.5] by the 25th.

Over the next 15 days, highs of just 50 or 72 will trade places.       Little rain till the 28th?

Only reached 72 briefly here yesterday near Noon, on strong southerly sea breeze.

Today:    63-67, w. wind, variable skies.

53*(83%RH) here at 6am.      60* at Noon.        62* at 2pm, then a quick shower and T never went passed the 62.      56* at 7pm.

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Morning thoughts…

It will partly to mostly sunny and noticeably cooler today. High temperatures will likely reach lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 62°

Newark: 66°

Philadelphia: 65°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 64.0°; 15-Year: 64.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 65.5°; 15-Year: 66.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.7°; 15-Year: 67.4° 

Monday and Tuesday will be autumn-like days with readings mainly topping out in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

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@donsutherland1 in your post above you have Nino 1.2 at slightly positive right now however when I look at tropical tidbits ocean analysis it's showing Nino 1.2 at -.8. Am I reading it wrong or is there another site with more accurate analysis?

Edit. Nino 1.2 has also been negative for the last 6 weeks on tropical tidbits site

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48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Definitely the strongest -PDO/-PMM since 2011

The Meteo-France seasonal shows  what could happen with a strong -PDO and record warm pool east of New England. It has a -PNA and south based-AO/ -NAO to start winter. Warmer than average temperatures but hopefully some snow opportunities if the early blocking verifies.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts

FFF31C6E-F545-45CF-B78D-6029646B3E82.png.99d527c926839479e3b488e3c6d319bd.png


9F674A19-3B40-490C-B6C6-80E8A057DDB9.png.e5427c0852a2ad75b39b20381956c378.png
 

A00B78F3-A572-4DAC-8622-697AD78C8A14.png.a4dbe63b01d5c115269d8a508dbeb7b7.png

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