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October 2021


Stormlover74
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The next 8 days are averaging 66degs.(59/73), or +7.

Month to date is  65.2[+3.8].      Could be 65.5[+5.1] by the 21st.

GEFS still has no BN 'Travelling 5-Day' period showing for us and seems to be warming again as October is ending.

Reached 73 here yesterday.

Today:   73-77, w. to sw. wind, clouds.

65*(85%RH) here at 6am.     68* at Noon.

 

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9 hours ago, psv88 said:

My low for the season is 46. This is the latest that my location has failed to drop below 46 since i have been here (6 years). Most years have dipped into the 30s by now, and some below freezing. 

The bugs are loving it.

The area around ISP is headed for the latest first 45° of fall on record. The previous latest was set back in 2017. But you can see all the late dates in recent years with the delayed fall patterns.  The recent average first date from 2010 to 2020 was 10-3. From 1964 to 1980 the average was 10 days earlier around 9-23.
 

First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2017 05-21 (2017) 43 10-17 (2017) 40 148
1983 05-28 (1983) 45 10-16 (1983) 43 140
2018 05-09 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 42 156
2007 05-18 (2007) 45 10-13 (2007) 39 147
1967 06-01 (1967) 42 10-12 (1967) 45 132
2016 05-20 (2016) 45 10-11 (2016) 39 143
2015 05-03 (2015) 44 10-10 (2015) 44 159

 

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58 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

when was the last sept-oct-nov that averaged below normal? 

2013 when you average out all the local stations. Before that it was 2000. But notice how weak the cold departures were even on those two years. 

2013….NYC 5 boroughs and Long Island SON average departure -0.3…….Northern NJ…..-0.1

2000….-0.6…..-0.2

 

NY climate division 4

14BD99D9-7068-495B-A866-A1016AF54B2B.thumb.jpeg.74b904d05b74f5a114764d276ee392a8.jpeg

 

NJ climate division 1

 

2C8229B6-5FE0-402D-ABF6-BBA50914DE93.thumb.jpeg.6548b652df1759cb593fa373b8b22b3b.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That long range forecast November blocking pattern on the weeklies looks like it’s part of the very early disruption  of the SPV. 
 

So, if we were to have a severely disrupted vortex in October or November, it’s possible this would help a stronger vortex develop aloft right around peak cooling rate – thus giving a chance for a stronger vortex to dominate during mid-winter. [6/9]

Also, tropospheric continental cold air masses have yet to fully develop like they are in mid-late winter. So, if you like cold weather, a vortex disruption earlier in the season could be wasteful, as it might preclude one happening later when cold reserves are maximised. [7/9]

2016/17 began with a spectacularly weak vortex, but that terminated quickly in Dec and the vortex became very strong, as wave activity declined during the disruption. Subsequently, the back half of the winter saw several minor warmings. [8/9]

Maybe but it can also never gain strength.  Allsnow is right , cold weather is wasteful  now.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe but it can also never gain strength.  Allsnow is right , cold weather is wasteful  now.

 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We will probably be having some interesting conversations on the significance of such a strong early season warming. 

90D0905F-7029-4497-8676-5E07507A7122.thumb.png.705386b136cf0cef0d069d14fae19568.png

 

Yeah, in 19-20 we had a huge warming event before December. Then the Pv went bonkers to end December and the winter was toast. Last year it never really recovered which allowed for a ssw in January. I believe that had a huge part in the snowy February we had. 
 

We really won’t know the state of all this until mid December. With the enso state currently the biggest factors will be Mjo and Pv 

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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the upgraded Euro has an impressive looking squall line for mid-October.

CD5F0AB1-B939-45A8-9D7F-ABB1278D4055.thumb.png.80e88bd4660e6285c23f72e09e051656.png

 

This is a great product to have now for  the euro but the day 7 snowstorm maps are going to be nauseating this winter. 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

This is a great product to have now for  the euro but the day 7 snowstorm maps are going to be nauseating this winter. 

I am just hoping the big upgrade fixes the EC storm suppression issue of recent years. We had to rely on the NAM for big events like the January 2016 blizzard. Seems like something changed after the Euro nailed Sandy and Nemo in 12-13. 

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If I was told I could have a beer outside, in shorts, tee shirt and barefoot, while low clouds hang around on October 13, I would never believe it.   But here we are, kind of a humid feel but comfortable.  (dont worry already worked a 4-12 shift , that calls for a beer)

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am just hoping the big upgrade fixes the EC storm suppression issue of recent years. We had had to rely on the NAM for big events like the January 2016 blizzard. Seems like something changed after the Euro nailed Sandy and Nemo in 12-13. 

Thats a good point. I think one of the upgrades after sandy messed with it. Hopefully, it returns to form in some areas 

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5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

After our little cool shot sunday into monday, the warmup for mid next week is looking more and more impressive. Probably well into the 70s wednesday and thursday next week, before the next cool shot for the weekend of the 23rd.

nice I hope it's better and warmer than the yucky cloudy clammy weather we have right now

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

That long range November forecast blocking pattern looks like it’s a result of the very early SPV disruption.
 

So, if we were to have a severely disrupted vortex in October or November, it’s possible this would help a stronger vortex develop aloft right around peak cooling rate – thus giving a chance for a stronger vortex to dominate during mid-winter. [6/9]

Also, tropospheric continental cold air masses have yet to fully develop like they are in mid-late winter. So, if you like cold weather, a vortex disruption earlier in the season could be wasteful, as it might preclude one happening later when cold reserves are maximised. [7/9]

2016/17 began with a spectacularly weak vortex, but that terminated quickly in Dec and the vortex became very strong, as wave activity declined during the disruption. Subsequently, the back half of the winter saw several minor warmings. [8/9]

Remember when we talked about how early cold can have bad implications for the winter?  Like snow and cold in November, etc, it takes a long time for the pattern to recover and by that time you've lost December, which you really need to have go your way in a winter of this type

 

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49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Remember when we talked about how early cold can have bad implications for the winter?  Like snow and cold in November, etc, it takes a long time for the pattern to recover and by that time you've lost December, which you really need to have go your way in a winter of this type

 

November has been our only fall month to regularly experience cold departures. But the record warmth in November 2020, 2015, and 2011 were exceptions to the rule. Since September and October have had so much record warmth, Fall 2015 was our #1 warmest….2017…..#2…..2011 and 2016…..#3……2020…..#6.  So these delayed falls have become more common over the last decade. 

Fall monthly temperature departures in the 5 boroughs of NYC and Long Island

September departures 

202109 69.2°F 122 3.4°F
202009 66.9°F 99 1.1°F
201909 67.4°F 107 1.6°F
201809 69.6°F 124 3.8°F
201709 68.6°F 118 2.8°F
201609 69.4°F 123 3.6°F
201509 70.8°F 126 5.0°F
201409 67.4°F 107 1.6°F
201309 64.4°F 41 -1.4°F
201209 66.7°F 97 0.9°F
201109 68.7°F 119 2.9°F
201009 68.8°F 121 3.0°F


October

 

202010 57.0°F 104 2.0°F
201910 58.0°F 115 3.0°F
201810 56.5°F 94 1.5°F
201710 62.0°F 126 7.0°F
201610 57.6°F 110 2.6°F
201510 55.5°F 76 0.5°F
201410 57.8°F 112 2.8°F
201310 57.5°F 108 2.5°F
201210 57.9°F 113 2.9°F
201110 56.6°F 97 1.6°F
201010 56.4°F 92 1.4°F


November

 

202011 49.6°F 120 3.7°F
201911 42.3°F 29 -3.6°F
201811 43.6°F 55 -2.3°F
201711 45.6°F 85 -0.3°F
201611 48.2°F 115 2.3°F
201511 50.2°F 126 4.3°F
201411 43.8°F 58 -2.1°F
201311 43.7°F 56 -2.2°F
201211 42.8°F 39 -3.1°F
201111 49.8°F 124 3.9°F
201011 46.2°F 96 0.3°F

 

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59 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i am so looking forward to the chill down on sunday into early next week tired of this humidity in the air 68 degrees with a dew point of 62 for mid october... smh...

October so far has had that cloudy, dreary feeling you get in autumn but with late summer temperatures & humidity. Very bizarre.

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

October so far has had that cloudy, dreary feeling you get in autumn but with late summer temperatures & humidity. Very bizarre.

We still had a +10 departure today even with all the clouds around. But the minimum departure was more impressive than the maximum. Several of the models were showing the potential for more clouds from the forecasts yesterday. 
 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
447 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 13 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         72    259 PM  89    1954  67      5       61       
  MINIMUM         64    312 AM  34    2012  50     14       53       
  AVERAGE         68                        58     10       57     
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