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October 2021


Stormlover74
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a look at years with a warm October and how the fall progressed...

warm Oct/Nov/Dec

1953...

1973...

1990...

Warm Oct cold Nov mild Dec...

1949...

1959...

1971...

1984...

2007...

2013...

2014...

warm Oct/Nov...Cold Dec...

1950...

1961...

1963...

1975...

1985...

warm Oct Cold Nov/Dec...

1954...

1955...

1968...

1995...

2017...

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16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

If Caribou makes it through tonight and tomorrow night without a freeze (models show 33-35), it could see its first freeze in November.

Record late first freezes:

Mount Pocono: November 1, 1920

Scranton: November 15, 1946

Have both gotten to 35 already but not 32 yet?

I see Caribou still hasn't hit 32!

 

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42F Coldest night so far

 

Of course weeklies long range aren’t reliable… The thing that I’m sure a lot of posters find frustrating is that many of us take the warm weeklies and hang onto them like they’re gospel, but when we see long range cold, we dismiss it as unreliable.

Food for thought on an early Sunday…

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The last 8 days of October are averaging 58degs.(53/64), or +4.

Month to date is  63.8[+4.5].           October should end near  62.3[+4.3].

Reached 63 here yesterday.

Today:   58-62,  wind w. to s.   sky clear to p. cloudy later.    

The rain for the rest of the month from the two potential storms is  4"-6" on the EURO/GFS and under 2" for the CMC.       We are way BN after 3 months of +10".,  just 0.52" so far.

51*(80%RH) here at 6am.    50* at 7am.      52* at 9am.       58* at Noon.       56* at 1pm........but up to 61* at 3pm.

 

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Monday looks like our last day of potential record warmth in a while. Newark may make another run 80° with a record high of 79°.The first two months of fall have followed the delayed fall theme of recent years. We are the warmest on record through the 23rd at several locations.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23
Missing Count
1 2021-10-23 69.7 0
2 2017-10-23 68.6 0
- 2007-10-23 68.6 0
3 1961-10-23 68.4 0
4 2005-10-23 68.1 0
5 1990-10-23 67.7 0
6 1971-10-23 67.6 0
7 1959-10-23 67.4 0
8 2016-10-23 67.3 0
9 1968-10-23 67.2 0
10 2011-10-23 67.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23
Missing Count
1 2021-10-23 68.1 0
- 2017-10-23 68.1 0
2 1971-10-23 68.0 0
3 2007-10-23 67.6 0
4 1961-10-23 67.5 0
5 2005-10-23 67.2 0
- 1959-10-23 67.2 0
6 2016-10-23 66.8 0
- 2015-10-23 66.8 0
7 1983-10-23 66.7 0
8 2018-10-23 66.4 0
9 2011-10-23 66.2 0
10 1995-10-23 66.1 0
- 1990-10-23 66.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23
Missing Count
1 2021-10-23 66.7 0
2 2017-10-23 66.5 0
3 2005-10-23 65.9 0
4 2007-10-23 65.7 0
5 1990-10-23 65.5 0
6 2018-10-23 65.2 0
- 2011-10-23 65.2 0
7 2016-10-23 64.9 0
- 1980-10-23 64.9 0
8 2015-10-23 64.4 0
9 1971-10-23 64.2 0
10 2014-10-23 63.6 0
- 1998-10-23 63.6 0
- 1983-10-23 63.6 0
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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those record SSTs are rocket fuel for storms. 
 

https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/

DF51289D-728E-4DBE-A801-7062D827F69F.thumb.jpeg.6a276fa9f1277659c112ab5cba32b16a.jpeg

 

A3B889C3-BAEB-4E92-B7FF-DCF88B3E6860.png.206d26abd49f3e5b5ee7cd9b80ef406d.png


2C746F23-CAB9-4CE4-A8A9-385403ABB0F0.png.eaa3ca6190185fcd1bee861094c724d0.png

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

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Morning thoughts…

After the coolest morning so far this season in many parts of the region, it  will mostly partly cloudy with near seasonable temperatures. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 59°

Newark: 63°

Philadelphia: 62°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 61.6°; 15-Year: 62.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 63.0°; 15-Year: 63.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.2°; 15-Year: 64.5°

Tomorrow will be much warmer ahead of a significant rainfall.

Out West, a bomb cyclone and atmospheric river will result in record rainfall at Sacramento and parts of northern California. Select daily rainfall records:

Downtown Sacramento:

October 24 record: 1.21”, 2010

October daily record: 3.63”, October 13, 1962 

All-time daily record: 5.28”, April 20, 1880

Sacramento:

October 24 record: 1.08”, 2010

October daily record: 3.77”, October 13, 1962 

All-time daily record: 3.77”, October 13, 1962

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24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

So another words put a fork in winter already

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30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

Classic snowman post

I guess you haven't learned from the last 2 winters with long range predictions.

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46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

You just need a short blocking interval nowadays to get a 20-40" blizzard.

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