LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 6 hours ago, Allsnow said: It really does feel like summer tonight! Just one of those early September nights! I 100% agree about this 3 month pattern persistence. It’s something we have been stuck in for years now. I remember last November it was 70 degrees to start the month. It was great for the late season stripe bass fishing. I’m completely okay with it being warm currently! I don’t want a ideal pattern for snow until mid December its wonderful, I hate shivering in October more than just about anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 8 hours ago, uncle W said: warm la nina Octobers and the following winter snowfall... 1908-09...20.3"... 1949-50...13.8"... 1950-51...11.6"... 1954-55...11.5"... 1955-56...35.0"... 1971-72...21.9"... 1973-74...23.5"... 1984-85...24.1"... 1995-96...75.6"... 2007-08...11,9"... 2017-18...40.9"... a lot of la ninas in this list with both a lot of snow and very little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: No offense but if it were the reverse right now you would say the pattern would change in time and cause a mild, snowfree winter. I personally think we're going to an AN temp winter with near normal snows though that's highly dependent on blocking. snowfall totals are completely unpredictable no matter how warm the winter as a whole is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: No offense but if it were the reverse right now you would say the pattern would change in time and cause a mild, snowfree winter. I personally think we're going to an AN temp winter with near normal snows though that's highly dependent on blocking. 2005-06 was a torch winter where we got 40" of snow and it was a La Nina too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: In the new era of stuck and stagnant weather patterns it has happened twice. The 13-14 ridiculously resilient ridge pattern started in October and continued into the winter. Fall 2016 featured the trough locking in near Seattle during September and running through the winter. Even though 16-17 had record winter warmth near 40°, we still had close to 40” of snow in spots for a 40/40 winter. The SE Ridge and Pacific Jet relaxed just enough at times for the -NAO /-AO intervals to produce. Even though it was in the 60s the day before the February blizzard. you only need the pattern to change for a few days to get a snowstorm.....so we had 40/40 both in 2015-16 and 2016-17? How close was 2005-06 to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Strong coastal signal for next week though not sure where it'll end up. EPS definitely has more of a +PNA showing up late October into early November. Yep, we’ve been hearing that the +PNA/-EPO pattern has been coming since September 1st…..eventually it will get here…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Mt. Holly's current take on next week. I would lean more towards the GFS Op but we'll see. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level low will remain quasi-stationary near the Hudson Bay Saturday into Sunday before getting ejected east over the Canadian Maritimes. Mostly dry conditions are forecast Saturday into Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s. The aforementioned wave in the short term discussion will cross the zones early Saturday, which may induce some shower development but chances look low here. Have kept chances of precipitation capped at slight chance. Either way, cloud cover will likely be more robust Saturday and Sunday. Late Sunday into Monday another wave crosses the Central Plains with surface cyclogenesis occurring over KS. The wave will then head east along the tightening baroclinic zone with chances of precipitation increasing from west to east Monday morning. Chances of precipitation will then continue into Tuesday as a psuedo Miller-B pattern tries to setup. The pattern here remains low predictability though as the GFS indicates wave breaking occurring with a deep vertically stacked area of low pressure developing by Wednesday. The ECMWF shows a much more progressive pattern. Taking a look at the latest EPS and GEFS runs, would indicate that the deterministic GFS deepens the low pressure far to much. The deterministic ECMWF solution appears to fit the overall ensemble envelope much more. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 what is Halloween going to look like,,,,,getting close and the kids are asking. Looks like it could be in the 60's but will it be dry and will it be warmer or cooler ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 As per several prior notes from others: 00z/21 cycle modeling continues the risk of a pretty decent storm in the northeast next week (or two storms?). Additionally, should something get going along the w Mexican coast and approach the Gulf of CA ~26th, some of its moisture may get involved in the northeast USA storminess ~ the 30th. Something to keep an eye on. Not wintry but definitely signs that one of these troughs crossing the mid Atlantic coast between the 25th-30th is going to create an ocean nor'easter of 40-50kt... whether its' grazing Delmarva or LI? and with only a few 40 kt gusts or more vigorous on our coasts? Tides are not abnormally high so that is good. The previously posted 500MB height departures from normal show the blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will partly to mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 74° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 77° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 62.6°; 15-Year: 63.2° Newark: 30-Year: 64.1°; 15-Year: 65.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 65.3°; 15-Year: 65.7° The warm weather will continue through tomorrow, but a cooler weekend lies ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 60degs.(55/64), or +5. Month to date 64.3[+4.4]. Could be 63.0[+4.5] by the 29th. Went from 58 to 77 here yesterday. Today: 73-77, Wind w. to sw., p. sunny. 60*(75%RH) here at 6am. 66* at Noon. Only 69* at 3pm, cool sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 52 degrees this morning, a little chillier than I thought it would get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Normal high today is 60 Give or take a degree or two depending on what part of the region you’re in Just for perspective… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Normal high today is 60 Give or take a degree or two depending on what part of the region you’re in Just for perspective… Actually a little higher than that in the immediate metro area, 63 Central Park and 64 Newark, 62 Islip. But to your point it is already 60 in Central Park, although a lot of the more rural areas are quite a bit chillier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Nice moderating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 hour ago, wdrag said: As per several prior notes from others: 00z/21 cycle modeling continues the risk of a pretty decent storm in the northeast next week (or two storms?). Additionally, should something get going along the w Mexican coast and approach the Gulf of CA ~26th, some of its moisture may get involved in the northeast USA storminess ~ the 30th. Something to keep an eye on. Not wintry but definitely signs that one of these troughs crossing the mid Atlantic coast between the 25th-30th is going to create an ocean nor'easter of 40-50kt... whether its' grazing Delmarva or LI? and with only a few 40 kt gusts or more vigorous on our coasts? Tides are not abnormally high so that is good. The previously posted 500MB height departures from normal show the blocking. One other note. There is a high wind signal for parts of the area sometime next week and possibly svr as well. No thread yet but if these trends continue another day, will probably start one for damaging wind and spotty 4+ inches of rain in our subforum. Definitely will be active as compared to this week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, lee59 said: Actually a little higher than that in the immediate metro area, 63 Central Park and 64 Newark, 62 Islip. But to your point it is already 60 in Central Park, although a lot of the more rural areas are quite a bit chillier. yeah some variation depending on location in region. I don’t see any air besides normal or above normal. Maybe slightly below monday and tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, lee59 said: Nice moderating I'm sorry but this stuff is transparent as hell and it's driving me nuts. You seem like a decent dude so I'll leave it at that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Rjay said: I'm sorry but this stuff is transparent as hell and it's driving me nuts. You seems like a decent dude so I'll leave it at that. No problem. Maybe I was being to picayune. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: yeah some variation depending on location in region. I don’t see any air besides normal or above normal. Maybe slightly below monday and tues. Yeah that's the way it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 This is the extreme opposite of the Ridiculously Resilient ridge of recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is the extreme opposite of the Ridiculously Resilient ridge of recent years. Incredibly welcome news for NorCal, until it becomes too much of a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: omg JFK got so close to 80! what happened? there was no sea breeze they should've made it! what was JFK's record? I have my fan on lol. Another chance tomorrow? Today will probably be a few degrees cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 37 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Incredibly welcome news for NorCal, until it becomes too much of a good thing It definitely will be too much. When you flip from extreme drought to flooding there will be problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It definitely will be too much. When you flip from extreme drought to flooding there will be problems. suprised there's not more flood watches out that way-just a few for inland N CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 A good rainstorm next week? About time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: A good rainstorm next week? About time with blocking so we could see a slow mover or even stalled storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 the bubble will burst and it will get cold and even snow...the question is when...in 1998 it took until Dec 20th...if the pattern does reverse in November it might reverse back to warmer than average again in December...1971 did that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 65 here Walking in marine park without a jacket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 49 minutes ago, uncle W said: the bubble will burst and it will get cold and even snow...the question is when...in 1998 it took until Dec 20th...if the pattern does reverse in November it might reverse back to warmer than average again in December...1971 did that... Ironically, much of the region is competing with 1971 for the highest October minimum temperature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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