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Major Hurricane Sam


Jtm12180
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12Z UKMET says look out Bermuda as this run’s center only barely misses it to the east and thus hits it hard with its northern and western side as still a major hurricane (although Bermuda can still probably handle it well. If I were going to have to be stuck on an island in a hurricane, I’d pick Bermuda for sure):

 

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.09.2021

             HURRICANE SAM        ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N  50.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182021

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 26.09.2021    0  13.9N  50.2W      947           104
    0000UTC 27.09.2021   12  14.5N  50.6W      963            88
    1200UTC 27.09.2021   24  15.4N  51.5W      970            76
    0000UTC 28.09.2021   36  16.3N  52.3W      975            66
    1200UTC 28.09.2021   48  17.1N  53.4W      976            67
    0000UTC 29.09.2021   60  17.8N  54.4W      978            61
    1200UTC 29.09.2021   72  18.6N  55.8W      978            63
    0000UTC 30.09.2021   84  19.8N  57.6W      971            72
    1200UTC 30.09.2021   96  21.1N  59.7W      966            74
    0000UTC 01.10.2021  108  23.3N  61.5W      964            79
    1200UTC 01.10.2021  120  25.9N  63.4W      962            79
    0000UTC 02.10.2021  132  29.4N  64.5W      956            85
    1200UTC 02.10.2021  144  33.7N  63.8W      943           105
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Why are the 12z runs initializing such a weak storm? Euro is at 993, CMC is at 999, and GFS is at 971. We have recon data from last night proving the pressure is in the 940s and it obviously hasn't weakened. What gives? And could that affect the rest of the model run?

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Sam's relative motion actually has not changed all that much over the past 3 hours. But the core is so small / compact that it appears the slow rate is still good enough for the eyewall to replenish over unspent surface heat content without upwelling itself too much. Recon will have better data soon but it does appear that Sam has intensified.b2e8e3efd54f975ba5633daca3ee3240.gif

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1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Why are the 12z runs initializing such a weak storm? Euro is at 993, CMC is at 999, and GFS is at 971. We have recon data from last night proving the pressure is in the 940s and it obviously hasn't weakened. What gives? And could that affect the rest of the model run?

Yep strange 

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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yes the CDO is giving strong hints of an outer eyewall. Recon has probably arrived at post-peak. Perhaps how low the pressure is now will be a good indicators of how strong it was four-to-six hours ago.

It very well could have been a cat 5 and we might never know, lets see what recon has to say. 

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23 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yes the CDO is giving strong hints of an outer eyewall. Recon has probably arrived at post-peak. Perhaps how low the pressure is now will be a good indicators of how strong it was four-to-six hours ago.

The latest recon ob is hitting 64kt winds further  out than yesterday it seems.   The next set of obs will be telling.

Edit: Nope still one eyewall

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20 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yes the CDO is giving strong hints of an outer eyewall. Recon has probably arrived at post-peak. Perhaps how low the pressure is now will be a good indicators of how strong it was four-to-six hours ago.

Ugh. We need funding to have recon on demand. :weenie:

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