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2021-22 Winter Discussion


Hoosier
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Who is ready?  Personally, not at all ready for winter weather, but ready to start discussing.

It looks like we will have a La Nina once again, which would make this the 2nd consecutive winter with one.  

Post your outlooks and thoughts here.

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1 minute ago, madwx said:

2nd year Nina climo would favor colder and wetter than last year but last year didn't really follow 1st year Nina climo rules.

 

Initial model trends do lean toward a weaker than average Stratospheric Polar vortex.

If you don't mind me asking, what does the second part mean? 

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5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

If you don't mind me asking, what does the second part mean? 

Weaker stratospheric polar vortex means that there is a greater chance at polar intrusions into the mid latitudes since the polar night jet won't be as strong. There will be more of a negative Arctic Oscillation.

 

 

947_xlarge.jpg

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29 minutes ago, madwx said:

Weaker stratospheric polar vortex means that there is a greater chance at polar intrusions into the mid latitudes since the polar night jet won't be as strong. There will be more of a negative Arctic Oscillation.

 

 

947_xlarge.jpg

guess we'll just have to get used to this as the Arctic sea ice goes bye bye and Greenland gets greener by the year

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3 hours ago, hlcater said:

Been spoiled locally the past few seasons. While I'd love for that to continue, we're due for a dud.

It's been the opposite here. A couple of barely normal, a couple duds. The odds are working in our favor in northeast IN.

 

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8 hours ago, IWXwx said:

It's been the opposite here. A couple of barely normal, a couple duds. The odds are working in our favor in northeast IN.

 

Similar weather up here.  More or less normal to below normal has been the theme.  LES especially has been missing the last couple of winters. 

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On 9/14/2021 at 4:40 PM, hlcater said:

Been spoiled locally the past few seasons. While I'd love for that to continue, we're due for a dud.

In Cedar Rapids we've had four straight winters with above average snowfall.  Two of the last three I've recorded 50", which is way above average and is a total we rarely reach.  We are definitely due for a 20" dud.

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9 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Those of us in the lower lakes region have to recognize this up coming system as about the perfect set-up for an epic winter storm....of course it's late September and we'll never get it to happen in January.   

We would be buried, let this be a sign of the storm track for the winter though.

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