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Major Hurricane Ida


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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I like that comment from @LakeEffectKing yesterday. This will be 140mph morning or earlier. LOL. Made me laugh considering what happened overnight. 

Didnt he verbatim say this would be a 150mph ‘cane before landfall? I honestly thought the dude was nuts at the time — in spite of obviously being one of the more veteran/knowledgeable posters on the forum, from my experience. 

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8 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Didnt he verbatim say this would be a 150mph ‘cane before landfall? I honestly thought the dude was nuts at the time — in spite of obviously being one of the more veteran/knowledgeable posters on the forum, from my experience. 

This had Top end potential. Excellent outflow, moist environment, low shear, high octane fuel. Boom. And a lot of guidance showed this potential.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

This had Top end potential. Excellent outflow, moist environment, low shear, high octane fuel. Boom. And a lot of guidance showed this potential.

No doubt that it had the potential but still 150mph felt lofty, at the time IIRC it was still a 105mph storm that had been sputtering most of the day from a wind-standpoint. Great forecast. 

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It is being reported that one of the major stations, FOX 8, has mets who are very concerned about NOLA. Certainly seems like there is serious risk, with one levee overtopping already reported. The extent of the metropolitan calamity is only now unfolding.

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37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How drunk are you ? Because there’s countless videos and actual obs of 140-163 mph gusts 

Cheers!  Are you sure those were storm chaser videos?

Or, just random amateur videos making their way across the interwebs.

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Just now, SNOWCREATURE1 said:

It is being reported that one of the major stations, FOX 8, has mets who are very concerned about NOLA. Certainly seems like there is serious risk, with one levee overtopping already reported. The extent of the metropolitan calamity is only now unfolding.

I've been watching their stream and yes, they are concerned about the city. The track has been much further east than anticipated.

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17 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Didnt he verbatim say this would be a 150mph ‘cane before landfall? I honestly thought the dude was nuts at the time — in spite of obviously being one of the more veteran/knowledgeable posters on the forum, from my experience. 

 Yeah....I thought it might get 5 mire knots...and since it's "not technically possible" to report 155, it really was a hairs breath from 160...

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Going rapidly downhill at N.O. (Ignore the 32 dewpoints). 

Intl Airport dropped 5 mb in the last hour and has 1/4 mile vis. There now is a whopping ~9 mb difference between there and Lakefront!

 

N.O. INTL ARPT HVY RAIN 77 32 19 E56G83 29.01F VSB 1/4

 N.O. DWNTWN HE RAIN 78 76 93 MISG N/A VSB 1

 N.O. LAKEFRONT HVY RAIN 77 32 19 E46G71 29.27F VSB 1/2  

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2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Thanks  bud...back attcha...

Studying these things with passion over a good chunk of my 53 years, I guess has value...ie...being an old fart!!

Kudos LEK, I fall into the realm of “weenie enthusiast” but reading your stuff always is a pleasure and it’s amazing to see how close you come so often.

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11 minutes ago, Cary said:

I've been watching their stream and yes, they are concerned about the city. The track has been much further east than anticipated.

This is the first storm in years that iCyclone has missed badly. That’s how far off the track is.

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