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Major Hurricane Ida


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1 minute ago, Indystorm said:

And if we do get ERC in the Gulf I assume this would expand the wind field geographically.  I haven't seen much discussion of how large this storm is expected to be ,  And if it gets very powerful in the Gulf this will increase surge and wave action.

The NHC hinted at this wind field expansion with the 5am advisory. 

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Somehow, these almost feel too low… However, given how quickly Ida ramped up today, I do wonder if that also raises the chances of an ERC later on that “robs” Ida of additional intensification. 
These things are chaotic and hard to pin down. Certainly too unpredictable to forecast structure and size with accuracy. I mean, interaction with Western Cuba could also backfire by increasing/broadening the size of the core vortex, leading to a larger eyewall during intensification over the east-central GOM. Anyone's guess and it would just be that, a guess.
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NHC now explicitly forecasting a category 4 hurricane prior to landfall...

Also upped the storm surge for a portion of the coast: "Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft"

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NHC clearly doesn't think Cuba will do that much to it

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated while Ida moves over western Cuba this evening. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

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Not the most surprising occurrence, but it looks like Ida's outflow has greatly expanded on the western-side, and to a lesser extent the southwest side, of the system since ~19z. Upper-level WV imagery shows this quite well. 

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9 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

Well thats why I am asking about the buildings.  I want to make sure that I pick a modern construction that has the built in redundancies for the ~150 MPH winds.

BTW... looks like shes coming in just a tad east of the 12Z guidance.  Yeah baby... here she comes!!!!

 

1 minute ago, agrayson12 said:

What's your definition of "a tad".... If you don't mind me asking lol!  Hopefully it means... Just an itty bitty bit lmao! 

Take this discussion to the banter thread  ;) 

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42 minutes ago, jburns said:

Rare for them to forecast that extreme so quickly from what is now a cat 1. I hope people pay attention.

Given the way it behaved today with less than ideal conditions -- I can't blame them. Max shear drops off to ~5kt tomorrow with the vector aligned with the track and plenty of OHC. Only remaining fly is how badly the formative inner core is damaged. This little double speedbump interrupted what was probably a hellacious RI episode.

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8 minutes ago, Amped said:

Recon is circling an outer band for some reason.

Just climbed up to 23,000 feet ASL too. I wonder if they are experiencing an issue and are terminating the mission. 
(Yeah, I don't know what they're doing)

I almost wonder if they're just going to drop high-level dropsondes for a while as Ida's core crosses over Cuba. 

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15 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

IR appearance has degraded, but on radar the center is as clear as it's ever looked. I expect Cuba interaction will disturb it somewhat, but it should be fully recovered by tomorrow morning

Big towers going up as we speak

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NOAA HH dropped a dropsonde from around 400 millibars (24,000 feet ASL) and are now descending back to 700 millibars while circling. Killing time while the 'cane moves over the island? One of the weirder flights I've seen. 

The status on Tropical Tidbits says “finished” for the mission. Very confusing!


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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

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