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September 2021


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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

12z continues the trend and soaks us

It will make 3 months in a row with several local stations going 10”+

Monthly Data for September 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Total Precipitation 
NY STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.92
CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.26
NJ HARRISON COOP 9.25
NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.23
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 8.79


 

Monthly Data for August 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Total Precipitation 
NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 12.41
NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 11.57
NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 11.29
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 10.73
NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.54
NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.34
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 10.32
NJ HARRISON COOP 10.24


 

Monthly Data for July 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Total Precipitation 
NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 14.76
CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 12.54
CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 12.06
CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 11.43
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 11.09
CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 11.04
CT WESTPORT 2.5 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.01
CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.98
CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.75
CT DARIEN 1.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.71
NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.68
CT STAMFORD 4.2 S CoCoRaHS 10.62
CT DURHAM 2.2 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.58
NY QUEENS 3.7 N CoCoRaHS 10.54
CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.48
NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 10.32
CT WEST HAVEN 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 10.29
CT REDDING 1.4 E CoCoRaHS 10.25
CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.24
NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 10.13
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The last weekend of astronomical summer began with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 80s across the New York City region. Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat cooler.

The potential exists for a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall during the middle or latter part of next week. Readings will mainly be in the 70s during the day and upper 50s and lower 60s at night.

The recent guidance has taken a dramatic turn away from a warm close to September. Instead, early indications of a trough and cooler than normal readings have grown in magnitude. If the guidance holds up, it is close to a toss-up whether 2021 will become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +14.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.354 today.

On September 16 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.826 (RMM). The September 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.851 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.2° (1.0° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

9/18

EWR: 88
PHL: 87
LGA: 86
JFK: 86
TEB: 86
New Brnswck: 86
TTN: 85
BLM: 85
ACY: 85
ISP: 84
NYC: 84

It felt even hotter than that. I was roasting more than most days mid summer. Glad better temps are coming even if there is some wetness coming with them.

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On 9/18/2021 at 4:07 AM, Will - Rutgers said:

did anyone else notice that the fireflies quit early this year?

i seem to remember a few years back they were swarming well into October due to warm moist weather.  i might've thought they'd do the same this year if you told me the weather ahead of time, but i haven't seen them in several weeks, well back into mid-August.

 

Maybe they have boom or bust years just like cicadas do?

 

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21 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models really slowing down the cold front later in the week due to the UL closing off over the Great Lakes. So heavy convection potential where the front stalls out. Probably several days of closer to normal temperatures behind the front.

New run

1135CC68-EB53-4014-A50B-205B240E88D2.thumb.png.9c902a35bd31111e0f39dd3127ac628b.png
 

Old run

 

6F3B1AC5-26C8-40C4-B7EB-73841FD9EC1B.thumb.png.a61436fc3668d585daa2a938283c8e53.png

why does this happen so much?!

I can understand one day of rain in a week, that's my limit

but why is it every time it rains it rains for 3 days straight and we see no sun for half a week?

you didn't see this stuff in the 90s, you saw actual summers with heat and sunshine not this crap

 

 

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22 hours ago, bluewave said:

Since September has warmed so much, LGA only has a +1.4 departure  through the 17th.  So the departures don’t tell the whole story. In our warmer climate, +1.4 is all that is needed for a top 10 warmest first 17 days of September. 
 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 17
Missing Count
1 1961-09-17 77.4 0
2 2015-09-17 77.2 0
3 2005-09-17 77.1 0
4 1947-09-17 76.7 0
5 2016-09-17 76.0 0
6 2018-09-17 75.3 0
7 1983-09-17 74.9 0
8 1971-09-17 74.7 0
9 2021-09-17 74.4 0
10 1957-09-17 74.3 0

It could be 120 every day for all I care, what I actually care about is why have our summers become much less sunny and is there any data that tracks that?

 

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15 hours ago, forkyfork said:

12z continues the trend and soaks us

whats the fastest way to destroy an upper level low?  These things seem to always stall out and ruin an entire week.  Maybe we're seeing more of them now, I'm wondering why we get this kind of crap weather more frequently now vs back in the 90s and earlier

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(64/77), or +2.

Month to date is  72.2[+0.8].        Should be  71.5[+1.3] by the 27th.

Reached 87 here yesterday, on n. winds.

77-80 today, n. wind, m. sunny.     Next rain event Thurs/Fri.

67*(70%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.     68* at 9am.         72* at Noon.       73* at 1pm.      75* at 3pm.      78* at 4pm.        Reached 79* near 5pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s with a few lower 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 81°

Philadelphia: 81°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 76.6°; 15-Year: 77.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.9°; 15-Year: 78.7°

A moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible during the middle or latter part of the week.

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Several stations just had the 2nd warmest 09-12 to 09-18 on record. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 18
Missing Count
1 2005-09-18 78.4 0
2 2021-09-18 77.1 0
3 1957-09-18 75.4 0
4 1931-09-18 74.9 0
5 1994-09-18 74.5 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 18
Missing Count
1 2005-09-18 75.6 0
2 2021-09-18 74.4 0
3 2018-09-18 72.3 0
4 1998-09-18 72.2 0
5 1971-09-18 72.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 18
Missing Count
1 2005-09-18 73.7 0
2 2021-09-18 72.2 0
3 1957-09-18 72.0 0
4 2018-09-18 71.6 0
5 1971-09-18 71.5 0
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Shaping to be a splendid Sunday and making two great weekends back to back and longer ranger guidance hints a trifecta next weekend.  Before then more of the same tomorrow (Mon) 9/20.  By Tue a trough  is digginng into the GL and a with a ULL cutting off by Wed (9/22) pushing a southerly flow along the EC.  Clouds and humid with rain and potentially a soaking Wed late into  and through Thu (9/23)  wit >1.5 - 3 inches of rain widespread before the ULL pushes north and aloows the front to push through Fri (9/24).  Should setup a fantastic first weekend of fall.  Beyond there as we end Sep and open Oct it looks like ridging is likely to build back by Tue (9/28) and warmer overall returns.

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it was a hot summer despite low 90 degree numbers from Central Park...the 11 year hot summer or what ever you want to call it goes on...the only thing I would say about that is this summer doesn't stand out like 1944, 1955 1966 and 1977 did...it seems like every summer is an 11 year hot summer so its becoming the norm...

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why does this happen so much?!

Record Newfoundland blocking ahead of the big cutoff this week. So the front stalls out for several days. More very heavy training convection potential coming up.


F9E83D19-C209-4EB6-8FA9-9F32E64147C6.png.686518cf8ee4ee2f2dae48fc01abe507.png

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is 2-4” for the areas that get the best training along the stalled front. So the mesos will probably be heavier once we get within their best range. May be another set up where the HREF shows somebody going 5”+ around the region.

F952F811-B597-4DBF-B5B3-EB59D2E0373A.gif.9faf6021ad1b2c2b395546e49c7fb7bc.gif

Also looks to me like this is more of a Thursday into Friday event now.

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