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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be wild if Henri made landfall somewhere in the Northeast.There hasn’t been a known case of a hurricane hitting the region after passing within 150 miles of Bermuda. There was one weak tropical storm that reached  Cape Cod in 1923. So the legend of the WAR would grow even stronger if Henri made landfall as a hurricane.

All tracks of hurricanes and tropical storms passing within 150 miles of Bermuda

8903B8CA-BE3F-4CA5-96DC-E7A27F81C569.thumb.png.d0e76f46fed7f40b5f18ed9e4d2f3064.png

You dont really believe any of these wild solutions like the HMON do you Chris?  The ones that have the storm swinging NW into NJ or NYC or Long Island?  There isn't a record block in place like there was for Sandy and those kinds of scenarios are more probably in October, not August.  Dont you think the furthest west this could go is Cape Cod?

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

You dont really believe any of these wild solutions like the HMON to you Chris?  The ones that have the storm swinging NW into NJ or NYC or Long Island?  There isn't a record block in place like there was for Sandy and those kinds of scenarios are more probably in October, not August.  Dont you think the furthest west this could go is Cape Cod?

 

There are no absolutes as far as track goes with this one.  The models are still working it.  There is a full moon on Sunday morning so the coastal flood threat is very real.

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77/ 73 humidity's here.  Fred riding west of the area merging with hung up boundary/front and clouds continue with showers/rain today.  Brunt of the heaviest rain stays west as it seems right now.  Western Atlantic ridge anchored along the east coast, warmer and humid weather continues.  Clouds mainly in the way of heat / 90s but possible longer breaks of sunshine tomorrow (8/19) could be the next shot at 90s.  

Fri (8/20) - Mon (8/23) : more of the same warm / cloudy and humid but where there breaks and periods of sunshine could see temps get to the 90s.    Weakness under the ridge could cause onshore flow with any heat west / inland to fit the seasonal / year theme.

 

Next week  - ridging looks overall in to the east and flow flattens abit towards mid week.  Overall warmer than normal and humid looks to be the theme into next week.

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Talk about crazy tracks, hurricane Esther in 1961. It came within miles of going ashore in eastern New England, then made a quick eastern turn out to sea, then turned south, then west and then north. It made a complete loop only to go back over the Cape Cod area. So in reality the same storm affected the same area twice.

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8 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Talk about crazy tracks, hurricane Esther in 1961. It came within miles of going ashore in eastern New England, then made a quick eastern turn out to sea, then turned south, then west and then north. It made a complete loop only to go back over the Cape Cod area. So in reality the same storm affected the same area twice.

Sounds a bit like Edouard.  But that was such a tease lol.

 

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still too early to know how far west this can come. The HMON isn’t reliable beyond a few days. But the models have been shifting closer to SE New England in recent runs. 

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/2020/08/24/what-is-the-best-hurricane-forecast-model/
5E257660-F86B-45C5-9E93-1D3B18892F5F.thumb.png.6a23a6aab5fccc645eccb0d2a686b641.png

 

 

With the NW track this seems a lot more similar to Sandy than Bob though.   Bob was a conventional hurricane on a typical NNE to NE track.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The GFS maintains impressive tropical structure for a system so far north.

07B4D478-956A-48D0-96B2-70ED54A83A3A.thumb.png.665f1f6af009baf37bb94520a018408c.png

9BB4BF4F-6D3C-480C-8334-EA58230F5ECF.thumb.png.4e71d088ef13dcf96a4b96d9d2435930.png

I think that has allot to do with the fact that it’s not being forced up the coast after a Carolina hit later in the season via a trough. That scenario always seems to really degrade storms. 
Regardless of direct impact, days of large swells will cause beach erosion and lead to beach closures right during prime beach season. 

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