August 2021

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 82degs. (73/91), or +9.

Month to date is  77.0[+0.4].       Would be  78.4[+2.3] by the 31st.

No more rain this summer after this PM?.

72*(99%RH) here at 6am., Rain.          82*(84%RH) at 4pm.        84* at 5pm.       Reached 87*(65%RH) at 6pm.

 

[rclab]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the 4th wettest summer on record in NYC through yesterday.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2011	25.23	0
2	1975	22.40	0
3	1989	22.36	0
4	2021	22.29	9
5	2009	21.38	0
6	2006	20.79	0
7	2007	20.62	0
8	1928	20.50	0
9	1903	20.43	0
10	1927	20.01	0

Good morning BW. 2021 will probably be in second place before noon. As always ….

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW. 2021 will probably be in second place before noon. As always ….

The vegetation around the sensor will probably give new meaning to tropical rainforest.

[rclab]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The vegetation around the sensor will probably give new meaning to tropical rainforest.

Maybe Don can do a pictorial of the ASOS surroundings and the sub forum can send it to Ken B. Dons pictures are worth more than a thousand words, which sadly never seem to be listened to. As always ….

[bluewave]

Just now, rclab said:

Maybe Don can do a pictorial of the ASOS surroundings and the sub forum can send it to Ken B. Dons pictures are worth more than a thousand words, which sadly never seem to be listened to. As always ….

The dense tree growth over the ASOS could be affecting the rainfall measurements in addition to the high temperatures. Notice how the new hourly record set with Henri was lower than all the other ASOS stations.

Hourly rainfall records

NYC…..1.94….8-21-21

JFK…..2.88….7-31-96

LGA….2.44….7-15-97

EWR…2.35….7-21-06

ISP……5.34….8-13-14

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

More August rainfall records are being washed away at Central Park this morning…

The August 21-22, 2021 rainfall total of 7.12” swept away the old 2-day August record of 6.87”, which was set during August 27-28, 2011. Through 7 am EDT, New York City’s 3-day total had reached 7.92”. That easily surpasses the old 3-day August mark of 7.20”, which was set during August 11-13, 1955.

Additional rain and showers are likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region and southern New England as Henri gradually moves away from the region. Farther south, clouds will break this morning. New York City could see clouds break during the afternoon or evening. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s to middle 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 85°

Philadelphia: 86°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.6°; 15-Year: 82.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.0°; 15-Year: 84.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 84.7°

Tomorrow mostly sunny and very warm.

[rclab]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The dense tree growth over the ASOS could be affecting the rainfall measurements in addition to the high temperatures. Notice how the new hourly record set with Henri was lower than all the other ASOS stations.

Hourly rainfall records

NYC…..1.94….8-21-21

JFK…..2.88….7-31-96

LGA….2.44….7-15-97

EWR…2.35….7-21-06

ISP……5.34….8-13-14

 

That’s a picture and a loud and clear thousand words, thank you. As always …

[bluewave]

When  was the last time we had a heatwave so soon after a tropical storm or hurricane? All the guidance has the 850 mb temps rebounding to the 18-20C range. So the warm spots can make a run on 95° with high humidity.

[dWave]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The dense tree growth over the ASOS could be affecting the rainfall measurements in addition to the high temperatures. Notice how the new hourly record set with Henri was lower than all the other ASOS stations.

Hourly rainfall records

NYC…..1.94….8-21-21

JFK…..2.88….7-31-96

LGA….2.44….7-15-97

EWR…2.35….7-21-06

ISP……5.34….8-13-14

 

The temperature readings gets alot of criticism but wind direction, speed and to some extent rainfall obs havent been great there either.

[SACRUS]

75/72 here and Henri / ULL moving out and heat moving in.  Late season heatwave for many folks but the park is a rainforest now and may not exceed 89 this week.  850 temps peak at >18c by Wed (8/25) - Thu (8/26) so mid to perhaps a few upper 90s possible in the hot spots EWR / NENJ/CNJ.  Friday (8/27) still hot before transient front arrives later this coming weekend 8/28 - 8/29.  

 

Beyond there ridge rebuilds along the Atlantic and more heat looks to arrive by next week.

 

Longer range overall warm and higher heights into next month with tropics picking up in the Gulf. 

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, uncle W said:

rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane...
date.................amount........
Sept 1882.......10.63"
Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane
Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene

Aug 2021..........6.66+ Henri
Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie
Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria
Sept 1938.........5.74"
Sept 1934.........5.48"
Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd
Aug 1879..........4.59"
Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle
Oct 1877...........4.07"
Aug 1893..........3.94"
Sept 1904.........3.85"
Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob
Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria
July 1960...........3.56"
Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol
Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna

 Henri gets into 2nd place in the list of wettest tropical storm or hurricane at NYC with 8.05” as of 8AM! Sept of 1882, the wettest at 10.63”, was from a TS (storm #4) moving up the east coast and it wasn’t as slow a mover it appears:

 

[SACRUS]

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.48" of rain so far today

Three day rainfall total of 5.22"

[CIK62]

Quick heavy shower for me in CI, 2:40-2:50PM.      Practically a sun shower.

 

[nycwinter]

hopefully this is the last week until next spring nyc has a chance to reach 90 .. i am so looking forward to cool days gusty winds and crisp nights...

[SnoSki14]

43 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

hopefully this is the last week until next sporing nyc has a chance to reach 90 .. i am so looking forward to cool days gusty winds and crisp nights...

I wouldn't take that bet.

However in the near term there's signs of some cooler weather to start September.

Looks like strong Atlantic blocking and a neutral PNA will have some influence. Too early to tell just yet

[Roger Smith]

19 hours ago, uncle W said:

I might have to add 1888 to the list...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/60729590

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1888-08-22/ed-1/seq-1/

Here's a link to historical weather maps for Aug 21-22 1888. Also check the wikipedia entry for 1888 H3. I noticed that BOS set their Aug 22 record with this same system (3.36").

https:/www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1888&maand=08&dag=22&uur=0000&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

The 4.19" at NYC on 21st was topped up with 0.13" more on 22nd for a total event rainfall of 4.32" 

[forkyfork]

lol

 

[Rjay]

90 at EWR

[HailMan06]

48 minutes ago, Rjay said:

90 at EWR

Tropical

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, rclab said:

That’s a picture and a loud and clear thousand words, thank you. As always …

Brian B found a higher NYC hourly rainfall total before the trees were covering the site. This total is more in line with the airport station hourly records. The article below has a photo of the site before the excess tree growth.

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/100-years-of-weather-observations-at-belvedere-castle-in-central-park

Original sitting before the tree growth 

Most recent photo from 2013 with trees growing over the sensors

 

 

 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Brian B found a higher NYC hourly rainfall total before the trees were covering the site. This total is more in line with the airport station hourly records. The article below has a photo of the site before the excess tree growth.

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/100-years-of-weather-observations-at-belvedere-castle-in-central-park

Original sitting before the tree growth 

Most recent photo from 2013 with trees growing over the sensors

 

 

 

IPS-256720CC-8A10-4E2D-A0A9-30906DB9C8E3.pdf (noaa.gov)

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Brian B found a higher NYC hourly rainfall total before the trees were covering the site. This total is more in line with the airport station hourly records. The article below has a photo of the site before the excess tree growth.

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/100-years-of-weather-observations-at-belvedere-castle-in-central-park

Original sitting before the tree growth 

Most recent photo from 2013 with trees growing over the sensors

 

 

 

This shows that there is potentially a lot of good information that could become accessible to researchers and the public with a large-scale digitization effort.

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, uncle W said:

IPS-256720CC-8A10-4E2D-A0A9-30906DB9C8E3.pdf (noaa.gov)

This report suggests that 1.46” was the hourly figure on 8/12/1926 not 2.48” (p.91).

[uncle W]

27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This report suggests that 1.46” was the hourly figure on 8/12/1926 not 2.48” (p.91).

 

it says on the 12th precip started 3pm and ended 525pm before starting up again...2.45" fell between 3-5pm...

[uncle W]

found the 1926 storm in the Brooklyn Eagle newspaper on 8/13/1926

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/59891322/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/59891322/

[SACRUS]

8/23

EWR: 90
PHL: 90
New Brnswck: 90
JFK: 87
TTN: 87
ACY: 87
LGA: 85
BLM: 85
TEB: 84
NYC: 83
ISP: 80

[donsutherland1]

Henri moved away from the region after producing the highest 3-day summer rainfall on record in Central Park. During August 21-23, 8.19" of rain was measured. That easily surpassed the prior 3-day summer record of 7.20" from August 11-13, 1955.

South of New York City, temperatures soared well into the 80s and 90s. Baltimore, Harrisburg, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC all saw the thermometer reach 90° or above. That heat will move northward tomorrow. Much of the remainder of this week will feature unseasonably warm temperatures.

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 23):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 21 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 44 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 20 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 10 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 9 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 29 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 21 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 6 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 8 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 21 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 14 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 34 (2020: 32 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 32 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 16 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 40 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 20 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 21 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.41°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. Afterward, La Niña could begin to develop.

The SOI was +5.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.173 today.

On August 21 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.963 (RMM). The August 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.443 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.3° (1.3° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

There was a 2.73” hourly amount on July 28, 1913.

[uncle W]

47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There was a 2.73” hourly amount on July 28, 1913.

I dont see that on the local climate data...was it a different year?...