MJO812 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Intensewind002 said: The wind damage from gloria was definitely worse here in suffolk county, at least that’s what my dad says, I wasn’t born yet. From what I’ve read wind gusts might have been as high as 115 mph in eastern suffolk and western suffolk probably had gusts to around 90 or so, which is similar to sandy. But I don’t think there were any big storms that took out a lot of trees like Irene and the 2010 noreaster did before Sandy, prior to Gloria, so maybe that was why damage appeared worse. Surge was definitely way worse with Sandy; Gloria hit at low tide The hype for Gloria was way up there. So the areas to the west like New Jersey and the city did not get anything like what many expected. However from around eastern Nassau or even central Nassau on east it was pretty bad. I would say in my area we had tree damage very similar in both Sandy and Gloria. There were people without power in both storms for weeks. I had a wind gust in Sandy at my house of 80mph and I would say Gloria was similar. The eye of Gloria when it hit Long Island, not far from the Nassau=Suffolk border, was open and large. I remember the back side of the storm had very strong wind gusts with partly cloudy skies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 79/70 temp split today, with an e wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 78 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 5 hours ago, jm1220 said: The WAR which makes almost every system go further west than expected up here. Which makes Henri a little bit interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: A group of EPS members track Henri near the benchmark. one member hits JFK...then dies in Newark...if that happened some areas around here will have videos of cars floating down the streets between houses... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly cloudy. Showers, thunderstorms, and periods of rain are likely. West of New York City in an area running across eastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, and into central New York State, 1"-3" of rain is likely with locally higher amounts. New York City, Newark, and nearby areas will likely pick up 0.50"-1.00" of rain. Much of the week will be a few degrees cooler with highs mainly topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Out West, Bismarck registered a high temperature of a near-record 104°. That was Bismarck's 14th 100° or above temperature this year. That tied the record for most 100° days, which was set in 1936. That mark could be eclipsed tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -0.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.799 today. On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.523 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.231 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.4° above normal). Finally, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.452 million square kilometers (JAXA) yesterday. That was the highest figure for August 16 since 2015. Nevertheless, Arctic sea ice extent will likely reach a minimum value near or just below 4.5 million square kilometers in September. The last minimum value at or above 5 million square kilometers occurred in 2009. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Gfs is way west and stronger than 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly cloudy. Showers, thunderstorms, and periods of rain are likely. West of New York City in an area running across eastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, and into central New York State, 1"-3" of rain is likely with locally higher amounts. New York City, Newark, and nearby areas will likely pick up 0.50"-1.00" of rain. Much of the week will be a few degrees cooler with highs mainly topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Out West, Bismarck registered a high temperature of a near-record 104°. That was Bismarck's 14th 100° or above temperature this year. That tied the record for most 100° days, which was set in 1936. That mark could be eclipsed tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -0.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.799 today. On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.523 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.231 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.4° above normal). Finally, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.452 million square kilometers (JAXA) yesterday. That was the highest figure for August 16 since 2015. Nevertheless, Arctic sea ice extent will likely reach a minimum value near or just below 4.5 million square kilometers in September. The last minimum value at or above 5 million square kilometers occurred in 2009. Arctic sea ice only has a weak connection to our winters, right? I think minimum value is typically reached between the middle of September and the autumnal equinox? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly cloudy. Showers, thunderstorms, and periods of rain are likely. West of New York City in an area running across eastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, and into central New York State, 1"-3" of rain is likely with locally higher amounts. New York City, Newark, and nearby areas will likely pick up 0.50"-1.00" of rain. Much of the week will be a few degrees cooler with highs mainly topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Out West, Bismarck registered a high temperature of a near-record 104°. That was Bismarck's 14th 100° or above temperature this year. That tied the record for most 100° days, which was set in 1936. That mark could be eclipsed tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -0.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.799 today. On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.523 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.231 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.4° above normal). Finally, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.452 million square kilometers (JAXA) yesterday. That was the highest figure for August 16 since 2015. Nevertheless, Arctic sea ice extent will likely reach a minimum value near or just below 4.5 million square kilometers in September. The last minimum value at or above 5 million square kilometers occurred in 2009. Don are the chances low for us getting 1-2" here and up to 3-5" in the Poconos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Next Full moon is Sunday 8/22. As currently projected there will be coastal flooding impacts from Henri. This could be the most significant impact from the storm in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 70° dew have returned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and humid today. Showers and thundershowers are possible. The heaviest rains will likely stay well west of New York City and Newark. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 81° Newark: 85° Philadelphia: 86° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.4°; 15-Year: 83.3° Newark: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 85.7° Tomorrow and Friday will become warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 82degs.(75/90), or +7. 850mb T stays between 16C---21C all the way to the 28th. 75*(90%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 81*(83%RH) by 2pm, hazy sun? We may get more rain from Henri than Fred's leftovers. Henri has the look of a Trapped Animal at 120hrs.-----but Best Path is still given as 200 miles further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Gefs is west of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 In reference to Henri: Definitely could be some coastal impacts along the jersey shore and the NYC metro with higher impacts as you head east over LI. Going to be interesting to watch over the next day or two to see how things may play out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6z hmon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HWRF is also west but hits Nantucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HWRF looked like it was going out to sea. But then last minute it gets pulled NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: HWRF looked like it was going out to sea. But then last minute it gets pulled NW. Yep further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Hmon right into NYC harbor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Not to derail Henri, but disappointing Fred’s remnant moved so far west. The garden was looking for a drink; looks like it’s time to irrigate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 50 minutes ago, Rjay said: That cone might have to be moved west a touch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hmon right into NYC harbor Going to feel like tracking a winter costal system the next few days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 06z HMON winds at 114 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: It would be wild if Henri made landfall somewhere in the Northeast.There hasn’t been a known case of a hurricane hitting the region after passing within 150 miles of Bermuda. There was one weak tropical storm that reached Cape Cod in 1923. So the legend of the WAR would grow even stronger if Henri made landfall as a hurricane. All tracks of hurricanes and tropical storms passing within 150 miles of Bermuda You dont really believe any of these wild solutions like the HMON do you Chris? The ones that have the storm swinging NW into NJ or NYC or Long Island? There isn't a record block in place like there was for Sandy and those kinds of scenarios are more probably in October, not August. Dont you think the furthest west this could go is Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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