Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,160
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WeatherGal74
    Newest Member
    WeatherGal74
    Joined

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Edge of my seat...

If only you were are surfer. The term “fish storm” does not apply.

I’ll throw in ocean front home owner too, during Bill there were serious wash-overs and beach erosion from a storm that stayed offshore 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bill_(2009)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's been coughing dry air though ... it may have peaked.    By the time it clears the band of 'quasi'SAL toxic layer out there, it'll be moving over slightly less OHC ...so it's less likely it'll be Cat 4 ... still, a slow moving Cat 2..3 will telegraph some swells, sure -

Meanwhile, the MDR is buck-shot with new developments.    It's getting late in the year for those..   Usually, the MDR starts to shut down pretty fast into October. So on Sept 27 there's time against that climate clock but that latter curve is descending.   As an aside, I was wondering if the MDR might have a later season than normal, just having that frequency all curving very early.

Yup...my feel/take on the Tropics for 2021 moving forward would have to entertain via home grown, or home grown fusion/hybrid deals.     Altho - Opal was a cat 5 briefly in the Gulf in mid October so ... that's a relatively rarer scenario tho.  "Ida" was likely the main show.   MDR's, even if so ...it just gets almost impossible to relay a laminar track without disruption.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's been coughing dry air though ... it may have peaked.    By the time it clears the band of 'quasi'SAL toxic layer out there, it'll be moving over slightly less OHC ...so it's less likely it'll be Cat 4 ... still, a slow moving Cat 2..3 will telegraph some swells, sure -

Meanwhile, the MDR is buck-shot with new developments.    It's getting late in the year for those..   Usually, the MDR starts to shut down pretty fast into October. So on Sept 27 there's time against that climate clock but that latter curve is descending.   As an aside, I was wondering if the MDR might have a later season than normal, just having that frequency all curving very early.

Yup...my feel/take on the Tropics for 2021 moving forward would have to entertain via home grown, or home grown fusion/hybrid deals.     Altho - Opal was a cat 5 briefly in the Gulf in mid October so ... that's a relatively rarer scenario tho.  "Ida" was likely the main show.   MDR's, even if so ...it just gets almost impossible to relay a laminar track without disruption.

It's obviously peaked...as 8-9/10 post ERC systems have.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

8 or 9 out of 10.

oh.. well, didn't look like Sam went through that sequence... It looked to me like dry air got entrained, and then I checked CIMS SAL layout out and the thing is plowing right through dry air, which since it looks more like that's what was occurring... Meanwhile, TPC is mentioning dry air evidences in their discussions.

 

But, whichever .wtf cares ERC, dry dry air... blah blah, pick reason to stick an intern on the mids tropical desk for data entry/cataloguing .. it's probably peaked

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh.. well, didn't look like Sam went through that sequence... It looked to me like dry air got entrained, and then I checked CIMS SAL layout out and the thing is plowing right through dry air, which since it looks more like that's what was occurring... Meanwhile, TPC is mentioning dry air evidences in their discussions.

 

But, whichever .wtf cares ERC, dry dry air... blah blah, pick reason to stick an intern on the mids tropical desk for data entry/cataloguing .. it's probably peaked

Looked like both dry air and ERC to me.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...