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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Early morning warm fronts later into summer always need watching 

Yes, but I don't think this is one of those times. 

I'm actually a big fan of west-to-east moving warm fronts and potential for severe weather along them but seems like there isn't much in the way of instability to work with along it...there is a bit of a lag between the front and much higher theta-e air. 

We actually could see the severe threat persist through Sunday night...may actually be higher evening/overnight 

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What a day to be alive in NE CT.

Chamber of Commerce approved.

65D716BA-63A9-4BBB-8E28-BE3B61414E75.thumb.jpeg.8f91599334eff32b200aed65a065ea49.jpeg

 

Yeah but your golf ball isn't that one there on the green ...I think I did see a splash out there in the distance though - past performance argues you should start looking there.

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It's funny how relative to whatever the model illustrations there are...there's always this interpretation effort for how it can be dramatic and entertaining.

Reliance on weather -cinema ... it never goes away. 

That pattern out there looks like summer's ending frankly.

Not sure we are going to stop the hemisphere from continuing to pack the heat backward toward the SW-W.  Every time we do see the models send a ridge to 90 W, the next three runs are academically finding least excuse imagined to repack, and we end up right back in NW flow again

This has happened every august the last 7 years running.  

This is what ends up then being a winter prolapse in October and November, as imagine - if you will - pushing this look ahead seasonally with hemispheric height reduction and there you are.  

But it doesn't mean or dictate or predict the DJF mean very well... as that mid part of winter than modulates/guided by increasing compression from HC expansion. This/thus speeding up the ambient geostrophic wind velocity, so much so that in turn... de-climatizes the R-wave distribution and concomitantly f'up all the longer term geo- telecon suggesters. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's funny how relative to whatever the model illustrations there are...there's always this interpretation effort for how it can be dramatic and entertaining.

Reliance on weather -cinema ... it never goes away. 

That pattern out there looks like summer's ending frankly.

Not sure we are going to stop the hemisphere from continuing to pack the heat backward toward the SW-W.  Every time we do see the models send a ridge to 90 W, the next three runs are academically finding least excuse imagined to repack, and we end up right back in NW flow again

This has happened every august the last 7 years running.  

This is what ends up then being a winter prolapse in October and November, as imagine - if you will - pushing this look ahead seasonally with hemispheric height reduction and there you are.  

But it doesn't mean or dictate or predict the DJF mean very well... as that mid part of winter than modulates/guided by increasing compression from HC expansion. This/thus speeding up the ambient geostrophic wind velocity, so much so that in turn... de-climatizes the R-wave distribution and concomitantly f'up all the longer term geo- telecon suggesters. 

 

Hopefully the roles are reversed this winter and the west gets a trough and we get a massive ridge :D 

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I mean we could bring the heat back. 

It's just that this modeling persistence to block/shun it S, consummately correcting late mid/ext into backing NW continental flow after July's,  that has a recent multi-year precedence/repetition. That circumstantially tends to coax one into believing we're just destined to the same muted later summer.  So we'll see.   It almost seems like a sped up atmosphere rushes seasonal change - the visionary in me sees this as a 50 year predicament until the warm engulfing of the planet has finally penetrated and warm the poles so much that who knows what that future looks like..

I mean... we snow in October/November's like Pez ...and send 70 to 80 F in Feb's and March's?  These are happening regardless of ENSO this, or solar cycle that, SSW whatever.  

And no, this muting of later summers autumn doesn't always show up in the scalar temperatures.  It's really more of a pattern tendency that sometimes results in early chill. ..That's the take away. 

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