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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Blows

Sunday doesn't look bad at all,  some afternoon showers.  Lol do you bitch this much at home? I see you got .5 yesterday nice vegetation drink. Monday you be complaining about the lawn drowning 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This weekend is Mitch and Ineedsnow approved. Those heartless and soulless bastards. 

Lol this is a classic post. Why anyone would want rain and cold July 4th weekend is beyond me. Poor campers.  I heard all parks are sold out.

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37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol this is a classic post. Why anyone would want rain and cold July 4th weekend is beyond me. Poor campers.  I heard all parks are sold out.

Campgrounds sold out, Cape Cod sold out.  
Cloudy and cool at least you can still stroll on the beach but pouring rain sucks.

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Nothing's really changed regarding the weekend over the last two day's of guidance, not appreciably enough to deviate from a blown Fri and Sat ..melding into an escape improvment Sunday afternoon.  That's the gist.

Longer version:  There are signals that Sunday may dawn murky, but being on the back side of an escaping deep layer closed trough with rising heights, while there is a PGF that is pointed SE being a down-slope direction, typically those scenarios result better skies and air than modeling. A partial clue to this is the Euro's convective node QPF over western NE by 18z, as the model is probably tussling with having to introduced destablization to the column, coming from sun getting through.

Out of nowhere, the Euro has +20C 850 mb plume over us at D6 off this 00z run. Two days prior ... it has low 100s over S Dakota and tracing this appears to inject into the post trough roll-out synoptics by early next week and appears to be the source for this stripe of hot air out ahead of a mid week cool front - which is also up for grabs as possibly too strong..  It was hinted in the 12z yesterday, and the two cycle trend is to roll next week right back into some sort of low grade positive anomaly, but +19 or +20 C 850 mb thermal ribbon yet keeps the 2-meter only 92 at BED strikes me as a forecast in flux, and may be more than low grade - pending.

Note, between the unusual 5-day heat wave ending June 10, and this most recent one, there was a sneaky 'rounding' faux heat wave in the interior of the 89.6 variety. This period of time does not show up well at the other SNE climate sites, as all three ..ORH/PVD/BOS are uniquely qualified to hide these kind of marginal garden variety heat anomalies.

DY MAX MIN AVG DEP

======================

18    85     60    73      4

19    91     69    80    11 

20    89     71    80    10

21    87     69    78      8

22    87     63    75      5 

Fwiw, I see next week ( 6th -10th) as possibly featuring days like those.  I almost suspect that these are like our base-line, with cool and warm stressing either way as a general summer wash.

There are signs that more substantive eastern ridging could returned 10+ days out.  

I've noticed we seem to be oscillating the hemisphere between eastern mid latitude height anomalies, then each one subsequently counterbalancing climate with negative periods, along an 8 to 10 day periodicity. This is a behavior that began back in latter half of May, and ...each warm episode brought more impacting heat.   There's an upper limit to how warm these can get, but, it can get even warmer.   Seems there may almost be an “air” of predictability suggestive with the above sequencing.

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nothing's really changed regarding the weekend over the last two day's of guidance, not appreciably enough to deviate from a blown Fri and Sat ..melding into an escape improvment Sunday afternoon.  That's the gist.

Longer version:  There are signals that Sunday may dawn murky, but being on the back side of an escaping deep layer closed trough with rising heights, while there is a PGF that is pointed SE being a down-slope direction, typically those scenarios result better skies and air than modeling. A partial clue to this is the Euro's convective node QPF over western NE by 18z, as the model is probably tussling with having to introduced destablization to the column, coming from sun getting through.

Out of nowhere, the Euro has +20C 850 mb plume over us at D6 off this 00z run. Two days prior ... it has low 100s over S Dakota and tracing this appears to inject into the post trough roll-out synoptics by early next week and appears to be the source for this stripe of hot air out ahead of a mid week cool front - which is also up for grabs as possibly too strong..  It was hinted in the 12z yesterday, and the two cycle trend is to roll next week right back into some sort of low grade positive anomaly, but +19 or +20 C 850 mb thermal ribbon yet keeps the 2-meter only 92 at BED strikes me as a forecast in flux, and may be more than low grade - pending.

Note, between the unusual 5-day heat wave ending June 10, and this most recent one, there was a sneaky 'rounding' faux heat wave in the interior of the 89.6 variety. This period of time does not show up well at the other SNE climate sites, as all three ..ORH/PVD/BOS are uniquely qualified to hide these kind of marginal garden variety heat anomalies.

DY MAX MIN AVG DEP

======================

18    85     60    73      4

19    91     69    80    11 

20    89     71    80    10

21    87     69    78      8

22    87     63    75      5 

Fwiw, I see next week ( 6th -10th) as possibly featuring days like those.  I almost suspect that these are like our base-line, with cool and warm stressing either way as a general summer wash.

There are signs that more substantive eastern ridging could returned 10+ days out.  

I've noticed we seem to be oscillating the hemisphere between eastern mid latitude height anomalies, then each one subsequently counterbalancing climate with negative periods, along an 8 to 10 day periodicity. This is a behavior that began back in latter half of May, and ...each warm episode brought more impacting heat.   There's an upper limit to how warm these can get, but, it can get even warmer.   Seems there may almost be an “air” of predictability suggestive with the above sequencing.

In warm season we sometimes see models overzealous with clouds and rain . Wouldn’t be surprising to see less of both this weekend after Friday’s frontal stuff. You could envision breaks in the sky on Saturday in between storms 

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