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There has been a “lift off” in temperatures over the past hour. At 1 pm, Newark was 75 degrees (+8 degrees in the past hour) and New York City was 68 degrees (+6 degrees in the past hour).

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Classic spring warm day temperature distribution around the area.

 

Jones Beach      N/A     59 N/A N/A S10G16      N/A
Wantagh          N/A     66  50  55 S12         N/A
Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   77  48  35 SW15      29.72S
LaGuardia Arpt MOSUNNY   82  44  26 W12G21    29.68F
Newark/Liberty PTSUNNY   83  45  26 SW24      29.70S

 

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i see MCS potential monday night along the warm front

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If the 18z GFS has any clue it is going to be a wet week and possibly into next weekend as well. The coastal storm is also closer to the coast for late week.

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No thread yet for the coastal Friday but GEFS seems to be leading the way as the EPS is trending south. No agreement yet between various ops and so holding for another day or two but this apparently is going to be a somewhat interesting first 15 days of May. 

 

Had a pollen-backdoor cool front go through here in the past 90 minutes. Waves of pollen in the northeast flow here recently.  Backdoor is/was on the EWR TDWR. 

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Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler. Showers and thundershowers are possible as a warm front moves across the region. However, Tuesday will likely be very warm. In parts of the Middle Atlantic region, it could approach see the highest readings so far this spring. Wednesday will likely also be warm, though not to the extent of Tuesday. A push of noticeably cooler air is likely late in the week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was -20.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.096 today.

On April 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.480 (RMM). The April 29-adjusted amplitude was 3.234 (RMM).

The April 30 amplitude set a new record for highest amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 8 during the month of April for the fourth consecutive day. Prior to 2021, there had been no cases where the MJO reached an amplitude of 3.000 or above when the MJO was in Phase 8 during April. The April 30 amplitude is also the fourth highest amplitude on record when the MJO was in Phase 8. Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. The last time there was a strong Phase 8 passage was in March 2015. The amplitude was +3.584 on March 19, 2015.

Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. Whether or not the MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 provides the first hint of a hot summer remains to be seen.

 

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4 hours ago, wdrag said:

No thread yet for the coastal Friday but GEFS seems to be leading the way as the EPS is trending south. No agreement yet between various ops and so holding for another day or two but this apparently is going to be a somewhat interesting first 15 days of May. 

 

Had a pollen-backdoor cool front go through here in the past 90 minutes. Waves of pollen in the northeast flow here recently.  Backdoor is/was on the EWR TDWR. 

 

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.png

Coastal storm now well east on the 00z GFS. We'll see what happens over the next 24-36 hours.

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The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(53/75) or about +3.0.

Storm goes east again on Friday.      No 80's upcoming now for two weeks.     EURO has same problem with the 70's.

62*(65%RH) here at 6am, overcast(was 68* at midnight).       65* by 9am.         66* at Noon but variable.       63* by 3pm.     60* by 6pm.      57* at 6:30pm, light rain.

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Yesterday could be the warmest for a while. Models have switched to a classic May backdoor pattern next few days. Tough to get mid 80s for more than a day at a time with a record 3.6 SD MJO 8-1 pattern.

     
 

003FD381-5228-4BE6-BD87-375639FBA5DE.thumb.gif.e6984a3fe0a30126341fae47763c84b1.gif
4077E99E-85D2-4753-B531-F739337415EE.thumb.gif.c5f6f49e35b61af4be394cd15d302b54.gif

 

2021 5 1 -3.6043048 -0.29759625 1 3.6165698

FB1144C3-D697-43F3-8F73-B426F2E73E8A.gif.8dd4522526d7c7dd41f77afc3134e64f.gif

 

 

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Big noreaster for the end of the week is gone.   Hopefully we get some rains early this week to wash away the high pollen

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Morning thoughts...

It will be variably cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible, especially during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 67°

Newark: 68°

Philadelphia: 74°

Tomorrow will become noticeably warmer, especially from Philadelphia southward. 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Big noreaster for the end of the week is gone.   Hopefully we get some rains early this week to wash away the high pollen

The pollen is awful

I washed my car yesterday morning because it was filthy.  I got out of work last night and my car was filthy again. 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

The pollen is awful

I washed my car yesterday morning because it was filthy.  I got out of work last night and my car was filthy again. 

yeah everything is coated in green here.

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Any breaks of sun tomorrow with duration should yield 80 or higher but it could stay cloudy with onshore east of the city.  Beyond that May 4 - May 10 look close to normal overall before the next brief shot at 80+ May 11 - 12.  Even Steven first half of may.

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