• Member Statistics

    16,739
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    DirectSEO
    Newest Member
    DirectSEO
    Joined

Recommended Posts

Morning thoughts...

An unseasonably cool air mass covers the region this morning. The arrival of that air mass produced a trace of snow in Rochester and Syracuse yesterday and a daily record 0.1" in Binghamton.

Today will be sunny, breezy, and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°
Newark: 67°
Philadelphia: 67°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and much warmer.

30-Day Verification:

New York City (Central Park):
Average daily forecast: 63.1°
Average temperature: 63.3°
Average error: 1.6°

Newark:
Average daily forecast: 64.4°
Average temperature: 64.2°
Average error: 2.4°

Philadelphia:
Average daily forecast: 65.6°
Average temperature: 65.2°
Average error: 1.8°

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You had to figure that a cooler trough would find a way to develop by later next week with a record MJO 8-1 for early May. The big question is how the individual storm details will work out with so much model spread. The models may not be much help beyond 3-5 days with such an amplified pattern.


EF4744EF-B9FF-4D3F-BF01-2B6682477B65.gif.a8b8445bbe4d8729df5aae0ef1e0394c.gif

 

Big warm up next several days

22E1A43B-59CC-4675-8CD2-220C065BB550.thumb.png.2b50a403638adb766b298abe5dfe91df.png
 

MJO 8-1 cool down by later in the week

52ED4A19-7A56-4E19-8AF8-5D749D6D4EDC.thumb.png.eb30c11f661598db912a4fda8ffb756c.png

 

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Being the day before Mother's Day, there are tons of outdoor crafts fairs and other vendor shows planned for the 8th. After we missed out on a year of sales from those types of events, it would be a real kick in the nads to lose the day to a nor'easter.

What do you sell at craft fairs? My wife's entire business revolves around them and we too lost a year...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

April ended at  54.6[+1.6].

The first 8 days of May are averaging 63degs.(53/72), or about +4.0.     

Starting May 06, it seems Normal or less, till mid-month.

42*(57%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.(was 49* at midnight)      46* by 9am.

Looks like a tendency for torugh to dig into the Plains/GL then pass through the NE May 7 - May 15.  Kind of a back and forth 70s some 80s on the east side of the trough with S/SW flow then cooldown.  Would suspect its wetter overall through the first two weeks of May.  Before then shot at >80 Sunday 5/2 and Tue 5/4.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, wdrag said:

So, as noted in a 'please verify' post earlier this page, 00z-06z/1 ensemble modeling is trending toward a sharpening digging trough here that may yield a sizable winterlike storm Friday the 7th, with 40-50kt wind gusts (coasts), heavy rain (coasts) and maybe a little wet snow elevations.  Still plenty of room to miss us to the east, or be weaker than a 985MB sfc low but worthy of monitoring. Possibly threading this, Sunday or Monday?  Need NAVGEM and GGEM to shift back to the west, the EC op to accept the occasional GFS cycle operational big storm concept for our NYC metro.  Again, not threaded yet due too much chance of this storm slipping too far to our east-northeast.

I wonder how temps will be compared to the same time last year when we had that cold shot and some snow showers?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You had to figure that a cooler trough would find a way to develop by later next week with a record MJO 8-1 for early May. The big question is how the individual storm details will work out with so much model spread. The models may not be much help beyond 3-5 days with such an amplified pattern.


EF4744EF-B9FF-4D3F-BF01-2B6682477B65.gif.a8b8445bbe4d8729df5aae0ef1e0394c.gif

 

Big warm up next several days

22E1A43B-59CC-4675-8CD2-220C065BB550.thumb.png.2b50a403638adb766b298abe5dfe91df.png
 

MJO 8-1 cool down by later in the week

52ED4A19-7A56-4E19-8AF8-5D749D6D4EDC.thumb.png.eb30c11f661598db912a4fda8ffb756c.png

 

 

were you in the same MJO pattern last May when we had that big cool down and the snow showers?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The temperature quickly rose into the 50s under this morning’s bright sunshine. The spring evolution continues to unfold at the New York Botanical Garden. The explosion of daffodils and cherry blossoms has now faded into memory. Azaleas and lilacs are now blooming in abundance.

NYBG05012021-10.jpg

NYBG05012021-4.jpg

NYBG05012021-5.jpg

NYBG05012021-7.jpg

NYBG05012021-8.jpg

NYBG05012021-11.jpg

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

were you in the same MJO pattern last May when we had that big cool down and the snow showers?

 

The MJO was less robust at this time last year. But the blocking north of Alaska was pretty extreme. Just a month earlier we had the record 1068 mb high over the Arctic. So the pattern was primed for a record May Arctic outbreak here. The daily record low of 34° in NYC was the 3rd coldest on record for April. To put that in perspective, the last time NYC had a top 3 coldest monthly low temperature was way back in April and August 1982 and 1986. So I guess that it’s fitting the April 1982 blizzard set the standard for April blizzards and cold. The trace last May was a record shared with 1977 for latest in the season. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1891 32 0
2 1874 33 0
3 2020 34 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1923 12 0
2 1874 20 0
3 1982 21 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1986 50 0
- 1982 50 0
- 1976 50 0
- 1965 50 0
- 1885 50 0
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The MJO was less robust at this time last year. But the blocking north of Alaska was pretty extreme. Just a month earlier we had the record 1068 mb high over the Arctic. So the pattern was primed for a record May Arctic outbreak here. The daily record low of 34° in NYC was the 3rd coldest on record for April. To put that in perspective, the last time NYC had a top 3 coldest monthly low temperature was way back in April and August 1982 and 1986. So I guess that it’s fitting the April 1982 blizzard set the standard for April blizzards and cold. The trace last May was a record shared with 1977 for latest in the season. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1891 32 0
2 1874 33 0
3 2020 34 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1923 12 0
2 1874 20 0
3 1982 21 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1986 50 0
- 1982 50 0
- 1976 50 0
- 1965 50 0
- 1885 50 0

Indeed and it's hard to believe it happened in May!  I see it's hard to believe for you too since you wrote April above haha.

So it's comparable to the extreme outbreak of April 1982?  How low did it get in the May 1977 outbreak, was that around 34 too or did it get down to 32?

 

I can count the number of times I remember it getting into the 30s in May here on one hand.  One other prominent one I remember was in May 1992, do you remember that one, Chris?  JFK got down to 37 and snow showers were reported in Morristown.  That also resulted in a very cool and rainy summer likely because of the Pinatubo eruption.  There were only 2 or 3 90 degree days that summer, tied for the record lowest, which I think was also tied in 1996 (which also had a cold outbreak in May with severe wx turning to 1-3 inches of snow and fallen trees in the Poconos on the 12th and a heavy frost on the 14th when had got back home to Long Island, with a low of 33.) That summer was entirely different though very humid and cloudy and high mins but very few 90 degree days.  The summer of 1992  was sandwiched between two record setting hot summers though, 1991 and 1993, both of which tied the record for most 90 degree days in NYC at 39 (this was before the foliage growth lol).  The record should've been broken in 2010......  And we had the extreme winter of 1993-94 with all the ice and snow events and record subzero cold, which was also connected to Pinatubo, but if that's the case how did we get a record hot summer in 1993?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The MJO was less robust at this time last year. But the blocking north of Alaska was pretty extreme. Just a month earlier we had the record 1068 mb high over the Arctic. So the pattern was primed for a record May Arctic outbreak here. The daily record low of 34° in NYC was the 3rd coldest on record for April. To put that in perspective, the last time NYC had a top 3 coldest monthly low temperature was way back in April and August 1982 and 1986. So I guess that it’s fitting the April 1982 blizzard set the standard for April blizzards and cold. The trace last May was a record shared with 1977 for latest in the season. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1891 32 0
2 1874 33 0
3 2020 34 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1923 12 0
2 1874 20 0
3 1982 21 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1986 50 0
- 1982 50 0
- 1976 50 0
- 1965 50 0
- 1885 50 0

That April 1923 reading of 12 is extremely suspect. That has to be in the .0001% return rate and most likely the most extreme low ever recorded in NYC if true

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That April 1923 reading of 12 is extremely suspect. That has to be in the .0001% return rate and most likely the most extreme low ever recorded in NYC if true

late March 1923 and early April 1923 had two arctic outbreaks in the low teens...I think late April 1923 it was in the upper 80's...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That April 1923 reading of 12 is extremely suspect. That has to be in the .0001% return rate and most likely the most extreme low ever recorded in NYC if true

Areas as far south as Baltimore and Washington fell to 15 degrees on April 1, 1923. Albany was 9 degrees.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and noticeably warmer. After a somewhat cooler day on Monday, next week could see one or two very warm days (Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday) in much of the Middle Atlantic region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was -14.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.269 today.

On April 29 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.234 (RMM). The April 28-adjusted amplitude was 3.073 (RMM).

The April 29 amplitude set a new record for highest amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 8 during the month of April for the third consecutive day. Prior to 2021, there had been no cases where the MJO reached an amplitude of 3.000 or above when the MJO was in Phase 8 during April.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging 62degs.(53/70), or about +3.0.

The 85 for Tues. may not be repeated till May 14, now that the 10th has not shown the 850mb T pop for days.       In fact, the extended ensemble looks dull T-wise for the whole month.

May 07 storm looks like a false alarm.    CMC, NAVGEM are weak and way se.     GFS has done its thing and GOne East Youngman.

56*(46%RH) here at 6am, p. clear, haze.     (Little T change overnight)    60* by 9am, variable skies.       65* by Noon.         70* by 2pm.        75* at 3pm.     still 75* at 4pm.       Shot up to 81* by 6pm.     70* by 10pm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts...

It will be variably cloudy and warm. A passing shower is possible. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 81°

Philadelphia: 82°

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler, but Tuesday will be very warm. Some parts of the region, especially from Philadelphia southward, could see their warmest readings so far on Tuesday. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, uncle W said:

Sun's coming out after a cloudy start...up to 64 from a low of 55...

cloudy again with a little shower on the way...67 now...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

63 / cloudy and some light sporadic showers the next few hours.

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

63 / cloudy and some light sporadic showers the next few hours.

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

Thought it was going to be near 80 and sunny but it’s cloudy with showers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Thought it was going to be near 80 and sunny but it’s cloudy with showers

We should clear out after 12 and warm quickly.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wasn't expecting to see any precipitation today. 

Currently have light to moderate rain.

Temp has fallen back to 65 after making it up to 67 prior to the rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Wasn't expecting to see any precipitation today. 

Currently have light to moderate rain.

Temp has fallen back to 65 after making it up to 67 prior to the rain.

The Euro had the morning showers with warm front moving through. Should see a big temperature jump this afternoon. So 80+ for the areas in NJ that get warm sectored is still on track.

 

B8D55FA0-2864-4B8A-9D12-41633AA077A6.thumb.png.b5801c760109beb70dd22929c98f43c7.png
AF989A0C-FD17-416F-BF3A-AAFE3B95AF9C.thumb.png.43172103ff6eeab6503e7f4f29f7227b.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

69 and overcast here.

Getting sick of LI being 10 degrees cooler than NJ on warm days. Summer can’t come soon enough.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Thought it was going to be near 80 and sunny but it’s cloudy with showers

Yeah i know right. These well advertised very warm days have been kind of duds, and not just at the expected immediate coast. I mean it wasnt forecast to be wall to wall sun, but extended period of cool, overcast, windy, drizzle conditions I didn't expect.

On the flip side we have escaped those extreme stretches of back door purgatory this spring, so not bad overall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My son's bday party is outdoors at a park in 2 hours. Should I just move it to my home?? I intentionally told everyone it was going to be sunny and warm today. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.