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May 2021 Discussion

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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CT Valley Snowman

CT Valley Snowman

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Already cooling off nicely... down near 60F now, wife wants to close the place us tight as we have 3 sliding doors open and all windows, indoor/outdoor temp isn't that different.  I convinced her to feel a little chilly as sooner or later it'll be hard to get that feeling, ha.

Also looking at BTV obs, man I am always reminded of how much I enjoy living in a place that cools off very quickly at night.  At 8pm, MVL was 66F (dropping 10F in an hour) while BTV is at 78F.  That immediate difference of 10-15 degrees when the sun goes down is a big deal between needing artificial A/C vs. natural A/C.  We ran the window units pretty steadily in downtown BTV.

Nice fast drop here as well on most calm nights.  Windows are already open.  Nearby PWS shows the cliff drop nicely. That temp spike to 90 just before 6 was definitely a sun taint issue as most places topped off in the 85-86 range around here.   Already in the mid 60's.  Screenshot_20210519-212947.thumb.png.b59b1195917711159bbf7d77a16390b0.png

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powderfreak
powderfreak

Turning into a nice day as the clouds start to lift and break up. On another note, there are a lot of bookend season snows where the snow level finds the spruce line vs. the hardwoods.  It's alwa

dendrite
dendrite
Ginx snewx
Ginx snewx

This is an awesome story.  It is extremely hard to foster then give them up. We have had now 68 dogs we have fostered some for as little as a week and some as long as a year.  However the joy of knowi

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Already cooling off nicely... down near 60F now, wife wants to close the place us tight as we have 3 sliding doors open and all windows, indoor/outdoor temp isn't that different.  I convinced her to feel a little chilly as sooner or later it'll be hard to get that feeling, ha.

Also looking at BTV obs, man I am always reminded of how much I enjoy living in a place that cools off very quickly at night.  At 8pm, MVL was 66F (dropping 10F in an hour) while BTV is at 78F.  That immediate difference of 10-15 degrees when the sun goes down is a big deal between needing artificial A/C vs. natural A/C.  We ran the window units pretty steadily in downtown BTV.

Down to 57° now.  All windows open. Someone is having a campfire. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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33 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Down to 57° now.  All windows open. Someone is having a campfire. 

I can't imagine living in AC on nights like this. The air is so clean and fresh. I can hear the owls calling,  a fox was just yelping probably to her cubs. Absolutely a top ten day noon and night. We take 

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted 
Monday into Wednesday...

Expect a fairly sharp air mass change by early Monday with dew
points falling through the 40s and PWATs dropping from over 1 inch
to less than 0.5 inches. 925mb temperatures fall sharply from +18C
to +6C in 12 hours and with a northeast flow, highs are only
expected to reach the mid to upper 60s over Eastern MA and RI with
low to mid 70s over the CT River valley. Nonetheless, it will feel
rather pleasant for outdoor activities with dew points in the 30s
and plentiful sunshine.

And the beautiful spring continues.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, kdxken said: 

Monday into Wednesday...

Expect a fairly sharp air mass change by early Monday with dew
points falling through the 40s and PWATs dropping from over 1 inch
to less than 0.5 inches. 925mb temperatures fall sharply from +18C
to +6C in 12 hours and with a northeast flow, highs are only
expected to reach the mid to upper 60s over Eastern MA and RI with
low to mid 70s over the CT River valley. Nonetheless, it will feel
rather pleasant for outdoor activities with dew points in the 30s
and plentiful sunshine.

And the beautiful spring continues.

On the fence with that ...

Both the operational Euro and GGEM depict a very interesting sort of anomalous pattern of behavior with that 'big bubble no trouble' polar high pressure that depresses the boundary S by 12z Monday.

Both show the high pressure as dispersing and even splitting it's mass by 18z ... leaving residual mass NW NE and S .... Then, oddly ..regathering sort of en masse SE of Cape Cod between 21z and 00z late Monday afternoon into evening. I think that behavior is the diurnal heat modulation of the atmosphere overcoming the high pressure cell ... Heat and buoyancy forcing chops it up.  That high pressure is also in the process of having it's governing mechanical support rapidly abandon it over the course of the day.  There is no CAA ...only sun ( Zool!)

The flip-side of all that conceptually is that those physical modulations don't happen without a temperature response in the interior...  Those 925 mb temps/adiabats 'll get obliterated by sun by 11 am, and with no supportive CAA at all at this time of year not sure how the boundary layer is dictated by that level-metric.  That's an easy call for me -

Anyway, that saga offers 'late high' scenario for the eastern zones, because after the wind dropping to almost nill mid day with instead hours of unadulterated 73.5 deg angular insolation submerging the land mass in irradiance ...the pressure pattern evolution suggest a west wind takes over during that 4-7 pm period...and that busted air then moves east.. 

NWS is not parsing apart the nuggets of these behaviors nearly as detailed as I am ...

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I also think we are in a -PNA driven warm pattern ..  

The overall surprising decent agreement between the operational Euro/ GGEM and their respective Ens means wrt to the general circulation of the hemisphere, matches the GEFs telecon layout laughably better than their own flagship operational version, the GFS - which cannot be used at this time.

The GFS is as usual ..not usable in warm seasons - ..I've writing why/how over and over again...  I gotta say, in never hearing these reasons ever echoed or so much as whispered in other conversation circles ... I wonder if is not taken seriously or ignored...?  Do what y'all gotta do - I'll just leave it good luck basing anyone's expectations on that thing's ludicrously obvious problems.

Anyway, this is a -PNA/hemisphere. The idea of modest warm height anomalies lingering post frontal swipes ...along the southern OV latitudes and below that is coherent in these non-American versions; they are also a much better fit for EPS/GEPs/GEFs ( yes the GEFs can have some reliance that the GFS seldom does) Pac - North American mass fields. 

It looks to me like a borderline hot weekend ends mid day Sunday or perhaps that evening/night...

I don't think Monday is held to only 67 F at Lowell Mass under solar max era sun, no wind and zip CAA, under 850 mb adiabats lingering to +6 C ... so 74 there and it may be late in the day?  Not totally sold... I think of Monday as a nice experiment on the 925 mb 12z sounding goes Ibex against that celestial radiation emitter in the sky lol

A warm front cruises through in flat ridge trajectory with zero inhibition WAA Monday night ..and I bet Tuesday 86/65 ... maybe 90/67 Wednesday ...and as I mentioned yesterday and still looks the same, ...that has a bit of thunderstorm look to it with that next S/W

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Here' what I predict with an air of confidence above the typical joke of D6's ...

Next Wednesday evening ... after a two meso nested quasi broken line of severe thunderstorms validate a watch box that late afternoon and evening, west to east across the area.... the southern aspect of the convective sequencing doesn't propagate much farther south than N CT/RI ... 

Then ...as the evening progresses, the first shower in a series of what will ultimately become a strobe lightning flooders will train/back build along that line ... all night long, until the front finally catches up and then it ends around 2 or 3 am...  1.75 month's worth of rain along that axis... Targeting package defined as Teconic - Tolland - NW Hills of R.I. .. where ... the U.S. D-M has no choice but to remove any mention of drought, cancel -culturing 'stein' from any vernacular ...  until some time the following spring.   

I just can't wait -

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I can't imagine living in AC on nights like this. The air is so clean and fresh. I can hear the owls calling,  a fox was just yelping probably to her cubs. Absolutely a top ten day noon and night. We take 

We have central air but it's off on nights like that.  Can't understand some of my neighbors who run it 24/7 from May-Sept

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Sn0waddict

Sn0waddict

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

We have central air but it's off on nights like that.  Can't understand some of my neighbors who run it 24/7 from May-Sept

I had to turn mine on yesterday afternoon as my 90lb Bernese mountain dog was starting to swelter. But by 10pm it was off and the windows were back open. If we didn’t have the dog then I would of just dealt with it but sometimes you must make sacrifices.

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