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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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That 12ZEURO shows "Ida" becoming a hurricane out to sea, "Julian" becoming a major hurricane slamming the middle TX coast, and "Kate" as a hurricane spinning west towards the Lesser Antilles. 

We shall see.

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1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

That 12ZEURO shows "Ida" becoming a hurricane out to sea, "Julian" becoming a major hurricane slamming the middle TX coast, and "Kate" as a hurricane spinning west towards the Lesser Antilles. 

We shall see.

Not much sleep to be had through most of October. :lol: 

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gem_z850_vort_atl_fh240-240.thumb.gif.ddf58832c4e29be9449a7a14b0fe2d51.gifecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_fh240-240.thumb.gif.476a7cb2a30145eb4af40ee58df99748.gifEuro and CMC almost exactly the same with a nice sized MDR storm with a developing wave trailing right behind.  Both models have been bullish on this for a number of runs, GFS still not sure.

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I think we will see a few fish storms, but one or two may slide under the radar. Think 1998. We had several out to sea (Hurricanes Danielle, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa) but Hurricane Georges slipped under the radar.

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3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I think we will see a few fish storms, but one or two may slide under the radar. Think 1998. We had several out to sea (Hurricanes Danielle, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa) but Hurricane Georges slipped under the radar.

He is most likely thinking many home grown storms . The water along the southeast coast are warm .

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Decent signal on GFS and its ensembles for several days, a storm already on the NHC radar that **probably** stays South of Texas, and another Caribbean storm that may enter the Gulf and **probably doesn't** hit Mexico.  (Texas to Florida).  The one that probably misses Texas is at 60% already for 5 days despite currently almost a nothing burger on satellite near the Venezuela coast South of Hispaniola on model support alone.  Euro has had a couple of runs of the orange into S. Texas, but most ensembles don't support that.

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12Z GFS on the border, and then, like yesterday's 12Z Euro, meanders the low around Texas, w/ greater than 10 inch storm total QPF over much of coastal Texas.  I qualified the misses Texas above w/probably, in 2008 I confidently predicted a hurricane would not hit Texas.  No training for arm chair amateurs, but I qualify every pseudo-prediction since then.

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The morning ensembles from the European and GFS (EPS & GEFS) still show a wide window of possibilities, generally focused on northern Mexico to the Upper Texas Coast. It would appear the 12Z ECMWF was a distinct northern outlier, while the 18Z GFS is 'centered' off the ensembles. I'm not touching the intensity forecast yet, but as others have said, a large on-shore wind field suggests a considerable heavy rain threat well inland and the potential for a prolonged surge event. Of-course, that's all just heresy based on weather model voodoo. Let us see where trends proceed over the next couple of days. 

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The Euro appeared to end up further north and east because it consolidated energy along the northern end of the wave axis while GFS focuses development further south. The overall 500mb synoptic pattern looks very similar between both models. I think we’ll continue to see windshield wiping on the models until we get a more concrete surface center (no surprise).

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We're in the medium range now. It's becoming very apparent that the upper level pattern will most likely be primed to support a hurricane in the GOM. The question is the latitude where low level circulation closes off. Obviously a lower latitude will spend more time over the Yucatán and will have a longer organizational period of development versus a more northern region of TCG. This matters for if we are looking at a potential major Harvey-like hurricane or something more slow to intensify into landfall. Nothing is in stone until we have that vortex placement regardless of all the crazy outputs we may yet see from the models. That being said, the signal is clearly on the up that we have a TC in the GOM next week. You do a double-take at these outflow patterns in the 72 to 126 hour range.31407ea6ab34cbca40442e773d92ddde.jpg

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