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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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5 minutes ago, Jessy89 said:


Should have rephrased that El Niño supposed to develop. Not in one yet but I could see a scenario where we have less then forecasted named storms


.

Dr. Phil says there's a very very low chance of El Nino forming

 

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Dr. Phil says there's a very very low chance of El Nino forming
 

See what happens but some of these winter forecast are quite outrageous. Some are calling for a lot more winter like weather in the southeast. That in which looks sorta like a El Niño type of winter


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30 minutes ago, Jessy89 said:


See what happens but some of these winter forecast are quite outrageous. Some are calling for a lot more winter like weather in the southeast. That in which looks sorta like a El Niño type of winter


.

Hey Jessy,

 Based on the current drop in SSTs, the cooling subsurface, the forecast models, solidly positive 30 and 90 day SOI averages, +OLR, and the fact that we're already into August, I see very little chance for El Nino by winter despite my preference for it.

Check out this animation showing significant recooling:

wkxzteq_anm.gif

SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

OLR: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr

 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Amped vort is running this thread

Weenies galore :rolleyes:

While still obviously disorganized, both invests are holding their own and the signal for development of 94L has increased across guidance. We may finally have something real to track. Will be interesting to see if the overnight period aids in helping either organize a bit.

76078255.gif?0.023234151841390882
 

 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Weenies galore :rolleyes:

While still obviously disorganized, both invests are holding their own and the signal for development of 94L has increased across guidance. We may finally have something real to track. Will be interesting to see if the overnight period aids in helping either organize a bit.

76078255.gif?0.023234151841390882
 

 

fraid it might be too early to spot an eye with the nighttime convective burst I'll try but doubt it, maybe AmpedVort can find one?  

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Hey Jessy,
 Based on the current drop in SSTs, the cooling subsurface, the forecast models, solidly positive 30 and 90 day SOI averages, +OLR, and the fact that we're already into August, I see very little chance for El Nino by winter despite my preference for it.
Check out this animation showing significant recooling:
wkxzteq_anm.gif
SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
OLR: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr
 
 
 

I gotcha I’m just letting my hope get up to high. Nice of you to find me here not on the other place anymore


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7 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Am I the only one that doesn't understand 99% of AmpedVort's posts?

I don't either, but as that is true for many other well regarded posters, it surely reflects my ignorance.

Frankly, this stuff just is not easy, so kudos to those who catch a glimmer!

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21 minutes ago, etudiant said:

I don't either, but as that is true for many other well regarded posters, it surely reflects my ignorance.

Frankly, this stuff just is not easy, so kudos to those who catch a glimmer!

Not that I’m the fountain of knowledge lol but if you ever have questions please just ask.

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DAMAGE -> D = DI | _ID -> DAMAGE ON SEVERAL ROTATIONS |Ida GAME = DAMAGE| CEIM CAME AC_UI(WE UI - User Interface) FWIW

Ida is expected in Early October or End of Sep based on CFS and logical thinking if they gonna fit within a short period of two months

Ida GAME if this means anything at all ::: could be a deal breaker or the first major of the season.

ADD-ON: WEP (WEB UI) W to M MRI M_RI I_AI RAM UI_R (R - Resistance)

JIRA - JITTER AI R (JITTER AIR) ECMWF upgrades are not good...


What? Dude, chill. Ramble all you want but at least make sense. Ida by early October? I mean, unless our closest star suddenly and rapidly expands into a Red Giant phase, I'd imagine we'll have the "I" storm before the end of September.
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1 hour ago, AmpedVort said:

DAMAGE -> D = DI | _ID -> DAMAGE ON SEVERAL ROTATIONS |Ida GAME = DAMAGE| CEIM CAME AC_UI(WE UI - User Interface) FWIW

Ida is expected in Early October or End of Sep based on CFS and logical thinking if they gonna fit within a short period of two months

Ida GAME if this means anything at all ::: could be a deal breaker or the first major of the season.

ADD-ON: WEP (WEB UI) W to M MRI M_RI I_AI RAM UI_R (R - Resistance)

JIRA - JITTER AI R (JITTER AIR) ECMWF upgrades are not good...

I have no clue what this post is about 

 

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30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have no clue what this post is about 

 

Me neither!  Must be a new type of differential equation.  After all, it was the least favorite course I took towards obtaining my meteorological degree...aside from Calc II.  Then again, I’m not sure anyone could decipher it. 
 

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1 minute ago, AmpedVort said:

Who is willing to post the GFS outcomes? I want the outcomes to circulate in the forum for good reasons just like the good old days when forums.accuweather.com had "live" posts on GFS runs. Or rules changed IDK? What is going on?

Posting the GFS is fine, people aren't really talking that much about it because there isn't a lot to really discuss IMO, but trying to attach hidden meaning to what F264 means is just a little much.

Again, not trying to be rude, but I think you'll get more robust discussion if you keep your posts focused on the invest, the overall environment, and computer model runs. 

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8 hours ago, Jessy89 said:


Should have rephrased that El Niño supposed to develop. Not in one yet but I could see a scenario where we have less then forecasted named storms


.

El Niño is not supposed to develop. We are currently under a La Niña watch and the latest MEI index reading was -1.5, which indicates strong La Niña. The subsurface is only getting colder in the enso region, and when taking Nina climo into account as well as model forecasts the La Niña will likely continue increasing in strength into the fall and winter. In the model forecasts there is still a lot of variability, with the cfsv2 ensembles ranging from -.4 to -2.0 in the Enzo 3.4 region during the nov-dec timeframe. Right now the latest data indicates that the lower values are more likely to verify. I’m expecting around a -1.6 peak in the enso 3.4 region for this upcoming La Niña event which would be a strong La Niña.

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1 hour ago, AmpedVort said:

image.thumb.png.a202bf6a5a146ab0b04ba9ffaf17cd26.png

Your posts are nonsense.

I mean posting and deciphering 488hr CFS forecast maps and finding eye's in invest's? Really?

I advise you to come back to earth and post some logical things before you're not allowed to post anymore period.

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8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hey Jessy,

 Based on the current drop in SSTs, the cooling subsurface, the forecast models, solidly positive 30 and 90 day SOI averages, +OLR, and the fact that we're already into August, I see very little chance for El Nino by winter despite my preference for it.

Check out this animation showing significant recooling:

wkxzteq_anm.gif

SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

OLR: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr

 

 

 

 

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hey Jessy,

 Based on the current drop in SSTs, the cooling subsurface, the forecast models, solidly positive 30 and 90 day SOI averages, +OLR, and the fact that we're already into August, I see very little chance for El Nino by winter despite my preference for it.

Check out this animation showing significant recooling:

wkxzteq_anm.gif

SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

OLR: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr

 

 

 

Damn is that a pool of -5 in the subsurface of the Enso region? I would be shocked if we are Enso neutral by winter never mind El Niño.

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43 minutes ago, AmpedVort said:

2x6x4 = 48

"in 48 Hours"

F264 is a code for a special EF-4 WIND hope this does not turn into a monster! The formula is subtract 2 from 6 = 4 and check if result matches the last number if it matches then EF-4 (range mid-first up to last number) winds are possible within the COC of a TC

Learned this back in the days where IT certifications were talking about SUPERCOMPUTERS so they taught us SOCIAL ENGINEERING AND CRYPTIC BIOS POST CODES...

Keep in mind also UV and RI and a missing S signifying VIRU (S) like infected vapor producing circuit (NOT A BIGGIE)

image.png.cf53ace5fb27253a409bd6832b4f3eac.png

What is this post? I have no idea what I just read lol

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1 minute ago, AmpedVort said:

I have no clue as well. Some discussion on the topic "match" the numbers to a logical meaning. Like a game or something... Obviously somebody is throwing wrecking balls in here but it is not me believe me! :)

Well I came here for a discussion and that's tough when I see you posting nonsense like every 30 seconds 

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1 hour ago, AmpedVort said:

I have no clue as well. Some discussion on the topic "match" the numbers to a logical meaning. Like a game or something... Obviously somebody is throwing wrecking balls in here but it is not me believe me! :)

Did you smoke something funny? I think you might have, when you’re high everything can be kinda a blur but if you think hard enough you will remember what it is you smoked. Whatever it was, I want some of it. You are smoking some good shit my man

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